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Forums - Sony Discussion - PlayStation Hardware Future Roadmap Prediction

We're a little over a year into the lifespan of the PS5. The console continues to have widespread shortages, but still is one of the fastest-selling consoles in history. It's very likely it will surpass the lifetime sales of the PS1, and it's possible it could outsell the PS4 and even the Game Boy+Game Boy Color. 

I had a thought today about what I think will happen in the future of the PS5. Please feel free to disagree, agree, or put your own predictions. 

I do not think we will get a PS5 Pro. The PS4 Pro didn't make much of an impact, all things considered. We don't have overall sales numbers for it, but I'd be surprised if it sold more than 10 million of the 116 million and up PS4 consoles sold. With shortages and costs, I think Sony would much rather focus on one set of specs for the life of the PS5 instead of two.

First Half of 2022: All models of the PS4 discontinued worldwide. 

Sony has already halted almost all PS4 production in the last year due to supply constraints and to focus on the PS5. It seems like they kind of already have discontinued the PS4, but I think they actually will in 2022. If it wasn't for supply chain issues, I think they would've held out until 2023.

November 2023: PS5 Slim and PS5 Slim All-Digital Launch

The PS3 and PS4 got Slim revisions about 3 years into their lifespans (it was longer for the PS1/PSOne gap and the PS2/PS2 Slim), and I think it will happen again with the PS5. Though I can see why many would think it won't happen until 2024 due to the current supply constraints and manufacturing costs. Sony would love to release the Slim as a digital-only device, but it seems even in 2021 the demand for optical drives is still high. I think Sony would make a lot of people mad if the PS5 Slim was digital-only. 

The All-Digital will be $350 and the Standard Slim will be $400. The All-Digital Slim will be roughly the size of a PS4 Pro, and the version with an optical drive will be slightly bigger. There will be later SKUS of the Slim that have 1.65 TB of included storage instead of 825 GB. Limited Edition Premium SKUs will have 2.475 TB of included storage. 

September 2026: PS5 Super Slim launches

Yup. I think Sony is going to bring back the Super Slim concept that they used with the final model of the PS3. The Super Slim will be $300 and will be digital-only. Sony will discontinue the All-Digital version of the original PS5 Slim but will keep the version with a disc drive so that consumers still have a physical media option for the PS5. 

November 2027: PlayStation 6 launches

Had COVID-19 not happened, I would've expected Sony to go for a shorter generation and launch the PS6 in 2025 or 2026. But considering all the supply chain issues right now, I think they'll wait the 7 years they normally have waited for a while now. The PS6 will be digital-only. The most I could see Sony doing is offering an add-on accessory optical drive for watching movies, playing physical PS5 games and limited-run physical PS6 discs.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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Have to disagree with the Pro model analysis. I don't see PS5 Pro not happening unless we will have shorter gen like you mention at the end of the post. PS4 Pro definitely sold more than 10m consoles. We don't have the PS4 sales breakdown by SKU, but the from what I remember the common consensus is that each fifth PS4 console sold was the Pro one. So, I would say that PS4 Pro probably sold somewhere between 10-20m, maybe closer to the 20m number. You also need to keep in mind that Pro model launched way back in 2016, only 3 years into PS4 lifecycle and basically at a point when PS4 was entering it's peak phase.



 

derpysquirtle64 said:

Have to disagree with the Pro model analysis. I don't see PS5 Pro not happening unless we will have shorter gen like you mention at the end of the post. PS4 Pro definitely sold more than 10m consoles. We don't have the PS4 sales breakdown by SKU, but the from what I remember the common consensus is that each fifth PS4 console sold was the Pro one. So, I would say that PS4 Pro probably sold somewhere between 10-20m, maybe closer to the 20m number. You also need to keep in mind that Pro model launched way back in 2016, only 3 years into PS4 lifecycle and basically at a point when PS4 was entering it's peak phase.

They said that in mid 2017 just half a year after the Pro model launched. Also they said it was 1 out 5 PS4 models sold were Pros since it's launch not throughout the entire PS4's life. You also have to consider that over time that the ratio definitely decreased. So in 2018 it could be 1 Pro model out of 10 PS4s sold or worse. If I had to predict a number I would say they shipped less than 10m Pros throughout it's life.



Wman1996 said:

We're a little over a year into the lifespan of the PS5. The console continues to have widespread shortages, but still is one of the fastest-selling consoles in history. It's very likely it will surpass the lifetime sales of the PS1, and it's possible it could outsell the PS4 and even the Game Boy+Game Boy Color. 

I had a thought today about what I think will happen in the future of the PS5. Please feel free to disagree, agree, or put your own predictions. 

I do not think we will get a PS5 Pro. The PS4 Pro didn't make much of an impact, all things considered. We don't have overall sales numbers for it, but I'd be surprised if it sold more than 10 million of the 116 million and up PS4 consoles sold. With shortages and costs, I think Sony would much rather focus on one set of specs for the life of the PS5 instead of two.

First Half of 2022: All models of the PS4 discontinued worldwide. 

Sony has already halted almost all PS4 production in the last year due to supply constraints and to focus on the PS5. It seems like they kind of already have discontinued the PS4, but I think they actually will in 2022. If it wasn't for supply chain issues, I think they would've held out until 2023.

November 2023: PS5 Slim and PS5 Slim All-Digital Launch

The PS3 and PS4 got Slim revisions about 3 years into their lifespans (it was longer for the PS1/PSOne gap and the PS2/PS2 Slim), and I think it will happen again with the PS5. Though I can see why many would think it won't happen until 2024 due to the current supply constraints and manufacturing costs. Sony would love to release the Slim as a digital-only device, but it seems even in 2021 the demand for optical drives is still high. I think Sony would make a lot of people mad if the PS5 Slim was digital-only. 

The All-Digital will be $350 and the Standard Slim will be $400. The All-Digital Slim will be roughly the size of a PS4 Pro, and the version with an optical drive will be slightly bigger. There will be later SKUS of the Slim that have 1.65 TB of included storage instead of 825 GB. Limited Edition Premium SKUs will have 2.475 TB of included storage. 

September 2026: PS5 Super Slim launches

Yup. I think Sony is going to bring back the Super Slim concept that they used with the final model of the PS3. The Super Slim will be $300 and will be digital-only. Sony will discontinue the All-Digital version of the original PS5 Slim but will keep the version with a disc drive so that consumers still have a physical media option for the PS5. 

November 2027: PlayStation 6 launches

Had COVID-19 not happened, I would've expected Sony to go for a shorter generation and launch the PS6 in 2025 or 2026. But considering all the supply chain issues right now, I think they'll wait the 7 years they normally have waited for a while now. The PS6 will be digital-only. The most I could see Sony doing is offering an add-on accessory optical drive for watching movies, playing physical PS5 games and limited-run physical PS6 discs.

This is the gen with the most focus on gaining as many profitable years as possible, fast tracking their path to those profitable years by cutting back production of the previous gen faster than what was normally done and maintaining that 7 year cycle is front and centre, with the ideal scenario being one where they are able to have the profitable years be stretched longer than the gen before and Pro type consoles will be seen as a major  factor in that thinking because apart from added sales they help ease the increasing pressure that comes with aging tech .



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I kind of question the Pro model thoughts. I think there is less need for it than there was for the PS4, but I also think that ultimately with the PS4 base model selling better than the pro (that's my understanding) and how well the cheaper Series S is selling compared to the X, that there'll be no real need for a pro.
But, if there is a revision (slim/ pro) in 2023, I'd be ok with that. Possibly won't get a PS5 in 2022 anyways.



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With a semiconductor shortages, I think both MS and Sony will be looking to make the consoles smaller instead of keeping them big and making less units.

MS will rely more on Gamepass across various devices and Sony will probably roll out their new version of PSNow across more devices too starting with their own TV's.

With chip shortages I reckon MS will double down on services.

Sony will look to strengthen their IPs via film, series and cartoons, and then follow it up with allowing you to download games on PC too via PC PSNow app.

A more powerful console probably won't be needed as it will take a while for developers to get used to the SSD tech and making the most out of UE5. We are a year in and we still haven't seen much of UE5.

The Matrix demo at us back to 1080p days and sub 30fps when at the start this gen was about 4K and 60fps. As hyped as I was, when the dust settled, I felt underwhelmed. I don't think we will see the engine firing on all cylinders until the end of the gen, the scale of the game is scaled back or the semiconductor shortage comes to an end and we get mid gen updates.

Next Holiday will be smaller next gen systems from both:

MS will probably redesign the Series X.

Sony will probably release smaller versions of both.

Sony will also release the PSVR 4K. Possibly 2K in each eye to keep costs down. They will probably push the headset with games, but also their big films, anime apps and TV shows.

GT7 will get an update with the launch or shortly after (let's be real, PD can't launch anything without a good ol' delay).

If Halo does well, MS will try sign off a ES series.

Sony will try double down on their mobile division on the back of Fate and we will probably see a new KZ with a free MP with a currency system like liberations had.



PS PC may change the mid gen Pro console necessity, or PS4 Pro may have not quite met expectations, and that may be why PS PC is being built up. If PC players have reasonable access to PSS titles, even if not day 1, the need for a Pro console may be absolutely minimal.

SNY can then just say, with proper PR, if you want better than PS5, get a PC and then use our service. A PS GP like service would make this even easier.

That way SNY can just focus on the single main console again. The hardware difference would just be disc vs digital. Then move on to slim.

I'd argue 7 years is probably too long for just PS5, pandemic or not. I'd say 6 years tops.



While I believe that the PRO-like revision will happen, it's not going to be released as quickly as it was in the PS4 case (in less than 3 years since launch), for a few reasons.

-the 9th gen hardware isn't so anaemic, compared to today's PCs as the 8th gen was to 2013 PCs
-PS5 is in higher demand than the PS4 was
-the chip shortage and ridiculous GPU prices will affect graphics/hardware requirements progression in new games, meaning that your og PS5 will be more than enough for modern games for longer.



Wman1996 said:

Sony has already halted almost all PS4 production in the last year due to supply constraints and to focus on the PS5. It seems like they kind of already have discontinued the PS4, but I think they actually will in 2022. If it wasn't for supply chain issues, I think they would've held out until 2023.

With shortages ranging from Ram to SoC's.. It makes sense that Gen 8 will be rapidly phased out to free up capacity.

Wman1996 said:

The PS3 and PS4 got Slim revisions about 3 years into their lifespans (it was longer for the PS1/PSOne gap and the PS2/PS2 Slim), and I think it will happen again with the PS5. Though I can see why many would think it won't happen until 2024 due to the current supply constraints and manufacturing costs. Sony would love to release the Slim as a digital-only device, but it seems even in 2021 the demand for optical drives is still high. I think Sony would make a lot of people mad if the PS5 Slim was digital-only. 

We will get a SLIM when it makes sense to do so... The reasons for a Slim console are many...

Consolidated components, shrunken chips, less components and a more optimized platform from a manufacturing standpoint makes them cheaper and easier to mass produce... So if the manufacturing aligns with everything, then I wouldn't be surprised if we get a Slim in the 2nd year of the consoles life.

Wman1996 said:

The All-Digital will be $350 and the Standard Slim will be $400. The All-Digital Slim will be roughly the size of a PS4 Pro, and the version with an optical drive will be slightly bigger. There will be later SKUS of the Slim that have 1.65 TB of included storage instead of 825 GB. Limited Edition Premium SKUs will have 2.475 TB of included storage. 


Storage doesn't need to be multiples of 825GB.
As long as the storage can equal the PS5's bandwidth, iops, latency etc', there will not be any issues.

512GB, 1TB, 2TB, 3TB are all possible.

Wman1996 said:

November 2027: PlayStation 6 launches

Had COVID-19 not happened, I would've expected Sony to go for a shorter generation and launch the PS6 in 2025 or 2026. But considering all the supply chain issues right now, I think they'll wait the 7 years they normally have waited for a while now. The PS6 will be digital-only. The most I could see Sony doing is offering an add-on accessory optical drive for watching movies, playing physical PS5 games and limited-run physical PS6 discs.

Sooner the better... The PS5 and Xbox Series X hardware is already coming up short in games... If there are no enhanced Pro devices, then I hope for a super short console generation so things dont stagnate.



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I definitely think PS5 and Xbox will both get more powerful models in 2023/2024.



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