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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGC estimates that the Xbox Series X|S sold through 7.6m by the end of September. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

VGC estimates that the Xbox Series X|S sold through 7.6m by the end of September. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 30 million 47 5.84%
 
30.0 - 39.9 million 28 3.48%
 
40.0 - 49.9 million 34 4.22%
 
50.0 - 59.9 million 107 13.29%
 
60.0 - 69.9 million 188 23.35%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 171 21.24%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 153 19.01%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 33 4.10%
 
100.0 - 110.0 million 22 2.73%
 
More than 110 million 22 2.73%
 
Total:805

VGC's estimate for Xbox Series X|S sell-through by the end of September is 7.6m. This cutoff date was used to be at least somewhat comparable to the most recent official Sony and Nintendo shipment data. Of course sell-through and shipments isn't the same, but you get the idea. What are your lifetime sales expectations?

A year ago the same question was asked, results below. Ignoring the lowest and highest poll options due to high likelihood of lacking sincerity of the voters, ~17% voted for lower lifetime sales than the Xbox One, ~18% for similar sales as the Xbox One and ~51% expected the new Xbox to sell more than its predecessor. So far the Xbox Series X|S is on pace to do better than the Xbox One (about 2m units ahead launch-aligned).

 

Your lifetime sales expectations for Xbox Series X|S?

Less than 30 million 101 8.40%
 
30.0 - 39.9 million 85 7.07%
 
40.0 - 49.9 million 126 10.47%
 
50.0 - 59.9 million 224 18.62%
 
60.0 - 69.9 million 255 21.20%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 186 15.46%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 130 10.81%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 23 1.91%
 
100.0 - 110.0 million 27 2.24%
 
More than 110 million 46 3.82%
 
Total: 1,203

Bonus question: What is your favorite Xbox Series X|S release up till now?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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Not sure what I voted for last time.
I'm going with 60-70mil.



It will sell more than OG (new), and One (what were they thinking?) but less than 360 (great, popular device!) because more people will transition to playing via computer (me) or phone due to Xcloud and/or Gamepass, but it will have more active players across all platforms than the 360 era and be more profitable. That's my prediction, at least. Hardware numbers are becoming increasingly obsolete when it comes to MS's profitability, unlike Sony and Nintendo who need them still.



50-60mil like the XB1. Unless the core gaming sector grows, or perhaps the Bethesda purchase leads to more dual owners, everything points to PS5 dominating XB like the PS4 did, if not more.



If Microsoft stick to the generational model and don't just make everything an Xbox Series _ from now on, I expect between 60 and 70 million.

Better than Xbox One due to better marketing/PR and more first party studios, but lower than 360 due to tougher competition and the low likelihood it will get a second wind (Kinect) and 8 years before replacement like 360 did.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 15 November 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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50-60 million.



I'd say it will at least be in the same neighborhood as 360. It's tracking ahead of Xbox One in spite of severe supply constraint, if they had more stock they would likely even be tracking close to PS4.

Eventually the stock situation for Xbox Series will improve and we will start to see bigger weekly sales. Late gen sales should be great as well, considering price cuts, Elder Scrolls 6 as a late gen exclusive, and more. So yeah, at least 80m imo.



I think it can hit 70m.



65-75 million.



Probably gonna be 69-79 million. I think Bethesda's purchase will pay dividends once they really get that ball rolling.



             

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