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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PlayStation 5 shipped 13.4m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The PlayStation 5 shipped 13.4m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 70 million 46 5.22%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 26 2.95%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 57 6.46%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 90 10.20%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 160 18.14%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 158 17.91%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 201 22.79%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 49 5.56%
 
140.0 - 150.0 million 29 3.29%
 
More than 150 million 66 7.48%
 
Total:882

The PS5 has shipped 13.4m units by September 30th. For reference, the PS4 had shipped 13.8m units launch-aligned. What are your lifetime sales expectations for the PS5?

About a year ago the same poll question was asked, results below. Ignoring the lowest and highest poll options due to high likelihood of lacking sincerity of the voters, ~22% voted for under 100m (70-99m), ~50% for a similar outcome as the PS4 achieved (100-129m) and ~7% for a notably better performance than the PS4 (130-149m). In other words, the majority of people who visited VGC expected the PS5 to do about as well as the PS4.

 

Your lifetime sales expectations for PlayStation 5?

Less than 70 million 101 8.27%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 48 3.93%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 97 7.94%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 136 11.14%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 274 22.44%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 165 13.51%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 176 14.41%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 51 4.18%
 
140.0 - 150.0 million 34 2.78%
 
More than 150 million 139 11.38%
 
Total: 1,221

Bonus question: What is your favorite PS5 release up till now?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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110-130mil. Could be a bit lower or higher than the PS4. I don't see why it would drop more than a few million from the PS4 or grow much more than 15mil over the PS4.



I stand by 105 million or so, surpassing the Wii and PS1. PS5 has direct competition from the Xbox Series S/X which surely will have higher lifetime sales than the Xbox One. Then it has more indirect competition from the Switch, and in another few years or so the Switch's successor (Switch 2? Super Switch?) will be another form of indirect competition.
The PS4 benefitted from the failure of the Wii U and many blunders of the Xbox One. That's why even with the PS5 currently outpacing the PS4, I don't think it's quite enough. The direct and indirect competition is stiffer this time. Also, remember when many of us thought 125-130 million or more for the PS4 was a given? And now it will probably finish with 120 million or a little more. The same thing could happen with the PS5. It could reach around 100 million or less and then only sell 5 million or so units once the PS6 is out.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

I'm optimistic it can do better than the PS4, but it's not going to be a big amount more or a big amount less, roughly the same. Let's say 115m-125m.



My Xbox Series S is my baby.

A tad more than PS4, i'd say 122 million.



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Still the same.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Sony is more profit oriented these days.

I expect lower than the PS4, not sure how much though. Maybe 90-110m?



I think it is too early to say.
But overall I think it will do little bit better in the first 2-3 years of it's life than PS4. Than it will go a little slower, and in the end maybe 10-15M short.
Just to pass 100M. However as I said it is too early to make a reasonable prediction, so this is just that, a prediction out of nowhere.



Too early so i will just say around 100M. 



Unless this generation grows a notable amount the PS5 should sell less than the PS4 due to significantly stronger competition this time. It wouldn't be that much less though since Sony isn't screwing up so out of those ranges I'll go with 100-110m.