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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Updated Switch software figures?

So, I was browsing through Twitter, looking at arguments regarding Metroid Dread's sales potential, I came across one post where it highlighted the sales of the Fire Emblem and Kirby franchises. Specifically how it had Three Houses listed at 3.02 million and Star Allies listed at 3.15 million. And I raised my eyebrow and went "Huh? That can't be right." Because the Switch page on this site still has Three Houses and Star Allies listed at 2.87 and 2.93 respectively.

Then, I went over to a post I have bookmarked on ResetEra that highlights all Nintendo hardware and software sales, and on the Nintendo Switch's list of software sales they have updated numbers for those games, and countless with the highlight "updated as June 2020."

The Top 16 titles and various others that are listed as "Updated as March 2021" are the figures that Nintendo has shared on their latest financial reports because those games were sold over 1 million copes in the fiscal year.. But there are some games, such as Three Houses, Star Allies, Mario Tennis Aces, DKC Tropical Freeze, and Yoshi's Crafted World to name a few, that aren't as lucky and we're left guessing as to where they are lately. Well, apparently, we have a closer idea, as I'll demonstrate below:

Below, I will provide the latest figure on the game before ResertEra's new number (As of June 2020), whether that's VGChartz figures (As of December 2019) or Nintendo's own figures (As of, the last quarter they gave us numbers on the game, which @RolStoppable was generous enough to keep track for us), how many units it sold since that update (ResertEra's figures - Whatever the one before it is), divide THAT by the number of quarters (3 month periods) between them, and what that would average each subsequent quarter.

First on the list is everyone's absolute FAVORITE launch title: I am of course talking about 1-2 SWITCH!!!! And I will follow with each game afterwards.

1-2 Switch: VGC (3.18 million) -> 'Era (3.31 million); 3.31 - 3.18 = 130k/2 (12/2019 -> 06/2020, 6 months/2 quarters) gives us 65k/quarter.

Mario Tennis Aces: VGC (3.06 million) -> 'Era (3.29 million); 3.29 - 3.06 = 230k/2 (12/2019 -> 06/2020, 6 months/2 quarters) gives us ~120k/quarter.

Kirby Star Allies: VGC (2.93 million) -> 'Era (3.15 million); 3.15 - 2.93 = 220k/2 (12/2019 -> 06/2020, 6 months/2 quarters) gives us 110k/quarter.

Fire Emblem Three Houses: Nintendo (2.87 million) -> 'Era (3.02 million); 3.02 - 2.87 = 150k/1 (03/2020 -> 06/2020, 3 months/1 quarter) gives us 150k/quarter.

DKC Tropical Freeze: VGC (2.65 million) -> 'Era (2.93 million); 2.93 - 2.65 = 280k/2 (you get the idea) gives us 140k/quarter.

ARMS: VGC (2.38 million) -> 'Era (2.47 million); 2.47 - 2.38 = 90k/2 gives us 45k/quarter.

Yoshi's Crafted World: VGC (1.84 million) -> 'Era (2.09 million); 2.09 - 1.84 = 250k/2 gives us 125k/quarter.

Captain Toad Treasure Tracker: VGC (1.44 million) -> 'Era (1.58 million); 1.58 - 1.44 = 140k/2 gives us 70k/quarter.

Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX: Nintendo (1.26 million) -> 'Era (1.43 million); 1.43 - 1.26 = 170k/1 gives us 170k/quarter.

Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01 Variety Kit: VGC (1.31 million) -> 'Era (1.37 million); 1.37 - 1.31 = 60k/2 gives us 30k/quarter. (Boy, did they drop the ball on Labo.)

Astral Chain: Nintendo (1.08 million) -> 'Era (1.14 million); 1.14 - 1.08 = 60k/1 gives us 60k/quarter.

Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: Nintendo (1.08 million) -> 'Era (1.13 million); 1.13 - 1.08 = 50k/1 gives us 50k/quarter.



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Now, I don't know how reliable this numbers seeing as how I can't find a source ANYWHERE so I'm not sure where this user on ResetEra got it. But, I figured it's worth looking into and it's just fun to think about and see where these games could be at now if these sales and trends turn out to be legit.

Assuming this numbers do turn out to be accurate and say, for example, all the quarterly averages turned out to be true. With another quarter set to close in 8 days. This is where each of these games would be at by the end of June 2021, one full year (4 quarters) after the 'Era figures. 

1-2 Switch: 3.31 million -> 3.57 million

Mario Tennis Aces: 3.29 million -> 3.77 million

Kirby Star Allies: 3.15 million -> 3.59 million

Fire Emblem Three Houses: 3.02 million -> 3.62 million

DKC Tropical Freeze: 2.93 million -> 3.49 million

ARMS: 2.47 million -> 2.65 million

Yoshi's Crafted World: 2.09 million -> 2.59 million

Captain Toad Treasure Tracker: 1.58 million -> 1.86 million

Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX: 1.43 million -> 2.11 million

Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01 Variety Kit: 1.37 million -> 1.49 million

Astral Chain: 1.14 million -> 1.38 million

Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: 1.13 million -> 1.33 million



I've seen these as of June 2020 numbers on Wikipedia but the editors decided that the source wasn't reliable, but I still think those numbers are most likely right.
We'll get updated number in a few months, din't know when exactly with the CESA games white paper.

Considering Nintendo apparently ships over 100k copies of Metroid Dread to France alone day one I'm pretty confident it'll reach 1mil shipped at the end of December and then maybe 1.2-1.5mil at the end of March. Depends on wom.



These software figures come from the CESA white paper and I've been thinking of adding another sheet to my Google spreadsheet for a while, because I don't want to mix the numbers from Nintendo's financial reports with numbers from other sources. Thing is, that takes time and is usually only interesting for games that have sold very small numbers, so I wasn't motivated enough to get it done yet.

But as time passes, the games that go untracked in Nintendo's financial reports will accumulate bigger numbers, so it will be more worthwhile to add them to my spreadsheet.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Is the 2021 Edition of the White Paper already out?

I thought it wasn't for another month.



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RolStoppable said:

These software figures come from the CESA white paper and I've been thinking of adding another sheet to my Google spreadsheet for a while, because I don't want to mix the numbers from Nintendo's financial reports with numbers from other sources. Thing is, that takes time and is usually only interesting for games that have sold very small numbers, so I wasn't motivated enough to get it done yet.

But as time passes, the games that go untracked in Nintendo's financial reports will accumulate bigger numbers, so it will be more worthwhile to add them to my spreadsheet.

I thought the CESA white paper is up until the end of the year, not the middle.



Kakadu18 said:

I've seen these as of June 2020 numbers on Wikipedia but the editors decided that the source wasn't reliable, but I still think those numbers are most likely right.
We'll get updated number in a few months, din't know when exactly with the CESA games white paper.

Considering Nintendo apparently ships over 100k copies of Metroid Dread to France alone day one I'm pretty confident it'll reach 1mil shipped at the end of December and then maybe 1.2-1.5mil at the end of March. Depends on wom.

If they ship 100k in France alone on Day 1, then how many would they ship in Germany? Spain? The UK? The US? Japan? If the other Western regions are relatively similar to France in that scenario, they could reach 1 million shipped in that opening weekend, let alone the end of December.



PAOerfulone said:
Kakadu18 said:

I've seen these as of June 2020 numbers on Wikipedia but the editors decided that the source wasn't reliable, but I still think those numbers are most likely right.
We'll get updated number in a few months, din't know when exactly with the CESA games white paper.

Considering Nintendo apparently ships over 100k copies of Metroid Dread to France alone day one I'm pretty confident it'll reach 1mil shipped at the end of December and then maybe 1.2-1.5mil at the end of March. Depends on wom.

If they ship 100k in France alone on Day 1, then how many would they ship in Germany? Spain? The UK? The US? Japan? If the other Western regions are relatively similar to France in that scenario, they could reach 1 million shipped in that opening weekend, let alone the end of December.

France is Nintendo's biggest market in Europe. I can imagine them shipping 300k+ to the US day one. Japan though has never been a big market for Metroid outside of the original selling 1mil and Super Metroid selling 500k. All other 2D Metroids sold below 200k. So 100k day one is not likely because it could pose the risk of overshipping.