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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Xbox will catch up to Playstation this generation

 

Xbox will catch up to playstation this generation

Agree 28 21.21%
 
Disagree 104 78.79%
 
Total:132

Few of you know that I had already predicted that the hybrid Nintendo console would dominate gen 9. I did this years ago (in 2014) because I understand the video game market and was able to predict years in advance the factors that would make that a reality. The main reason was a unified library between Nintendo's home and portable console, which prior to the hybrid were fragmented, and fragmented their release schedule, making it much stronger once unified.

Like TBone, I like to make controversion predictions because, like history has shown us, when most people take for granted by looking at popularity, they are often wrong by using the popularity factor alone. Much more important real factors make the success of a console, and now with Xbox we have an upcoming winner. Let me explain.

The xbox gamepass looks like just any other game delivery service, but in reality it is a very special one. Xbox gamepass is very aggressive.

On day 1, xbox owners get to play the very best offerings because Microsoft is putting their 1st party games on gamepass at launch. Not only that, but they are hard at work with partners, making sure they do the very same thing. Let's compare some alternatives. Stadia for example was a ruin from the start. Google offers users a membership, but users still have to pay full price for games during their membership. Apple offers Apple arcade, but the games are not what most gamers expect, many being small indie app-like games that are not strong in front of the main industry games. Playstation offers Playstation now, however the main games are not there on launch and the service is streamed.

With Xbox gamepass, gamers can download top games directly to their xbox and play them as if they own the game. And even games they might not buy, they can play due to their subscription, like icing on a cake.

This makes gamepass a very enticing service for people who want to play games without committing to high prices for a full game purchase, while giving others the option to do so if they want to. Someone unsure of what console to choose can easily purchase an xbox with a gamepass subscription and get playing immediately.

As people become more and more aware of this purchasing option, I predict the following:

  • Microsoft will gain a lot of ground in the US, probably beating the playstation by a two to one ratio in console sales over the course of the generation.
  • Sony will continue to keep a hold on Europe as gamers are very loyal to the brand there and Sony's marketing is very strong there. Over the course of the generation, Microsoft will get strong in the UK but continue to struggle in Spain, Italy, France and other mediterranean countries that are dominated by Sony.
  • In Japan, Nintendo will continue to dominate leaving little room for the other two, esp. Sony, to get an advantage there.
  • While gamepass will be popular on PC, Xbox will be the place to play since the console is a lot cheaper than a gaming PC, and thus much more accessible to the mainstream.

Therefore, my prediction is that while Sony will be very strong this gen with 1st party software, with a similar strength to the PS4, Xbox will catch up to Sony within the first 3 years of the lifespan of the gen. This will surprise a lot of people because most underestimate the importance of gamepass and its upcoming impact.

The sales for both consoles will be very strong, stronger than the PS3 era. Both consoles will finish at around 100M units each.



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Not going to happen.

Playstation is simply a stronger brand with more reach across more regions and a stronger catalogue of system selling exclusive franchises.

Gamepass is not a killer app, if it was it would've given the Xbone a late life boost like Kinect did for the 360, and the Series S would be sold out currently instead of sitting on shelves all over the world.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 01 June 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Nah, while I think Series X will do a good bit better than Xbox One did..... the Xbox brand just isn't that strong in the rest of the world to overcome PS. Heck even in it's best territory, NA, PS still strongly out preforms it. I think PS5 will do 110-120 million and Series X 60-70 million



Ouch, man.



Nintendo selling over 100 million with Switch had a precedence of Nintendo being very strong in handheld market, although Switch smashing records like it is now on the road to be the best selling console of all time wasn't predicted even by the most optimistic predictions

Your current prediction as described on this thread is in the same realm of a "Switch is going surpass PS2/DS" if such statement was made back in 2017. Fact is Xbox presence in Asia is very close to irrelevant and regardless of how bad Sony is selling in Japan Asia numbers will already given Sony an advantage of 8-9 million copies against Xbox in ROW region. 

Currently PS5 sales are looking similar to PS4, this will give PS5 sales a floor sales of 30 million in North America with 35-40 million range being quite reasonable

For you prediction of Xbox Series XS doubling PS5 north american sales is essentially predict it to sell on 70-75 million range, becoming the biggest selling system of all time in USA BY FAR

A way to make this prediction becoming slightly more believable would be a breakdown of: 65 mi NA, 30 mi Europe, 10 mi Japan+ROW closing around 115 million range but even those 65 million in NA seems a quite hard number to archieve 

Good look with your prediction, but I'm out 



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Gamepass exist on PC right? So what's the fcking point of buying the box?

Playstation on the other hand has exclusives right from the get go,
Demon/sack/spider/godfall.

Now they released returnal and soon ratchet...

Xbox buying Bethesda didn't change anything the slightest coz they still be selling it on PC so how are they gonna catch up?



LivncA_Dis3 said:

Playstation on the other hand has exclusives right from the get go,
Demon/sack/spider/godfall.

Demon's Souls is on PS3 and pretty sure Spiderman Miles Morales is on PS4? So not really exclusives technically.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

LivncA_Dis3 said:

Gamepass exist on PC right? So what's the fcking point of buying the box?

Playstation on the other hand has exclusives right from the get go,
Demon/sack/spider/godfall.

Now they released returnal and soon ratchet...

Xbox buying Bethesda didn't change anything the slightest coz they still be selling it on PC so how are they gonna catch up?

Not everyone wants to buy a fucking PC. 

PS needs to stop with the one foot in the water shit, and release their games day one on PC--> more money then. 

Few of those games listed are NOT exclusive they are on PS4, so wrong there. Love how people say Bethesda did nothing yet, when they literally just finalized the deal in March... Cut the bullshit. 




I'm not seeing it match the PS5 but who know. GamePass has hit over 20 million subs, averaging approx. a million people a month. For it to continue that growth...or even keep current momentum, console sales need to increase drastically as a result.



Great... the 5923787th thread featuring "Gamepass is great"
Exactly what everyone has been waiting for...... not