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Forums - Sales Discussion - Pokémon Sword/Shield shipped 21.10m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Pokémon Sword/Shield shipped 21.10m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 22 million 27 5.90%
 
22.0 - 22.9 million 28 6.11%
 
23.0 - 23.9 million 56 12.23%
 
24.0 - 24.9 million 63 13.76%
 
25.0 - 25.9 million 98 21.40%
 
26.0 - 26.9 million 41 8.95%
 
27.0 - 27.9 million 45 9.83%
 
28.0 - 28.9 million 16 3.49%
 
29.0 - 30.0 million 16 3.49%
 
More than 30 million 68 14.85%
 
Total:458

The latest Pokémon game of the main series did forego to launch a third version or sequel in favor of expansions, a fact that should lead to better legs than usual in theory, but on the other hand Pokémon's first foray into a full 3D world with a free camera lacked polish.

Here's the quarterly sales history of Pokémon Sword and Shield:

December 2019 - 16.06m/16.06m
March 2020 - 1.31m/17.37m
June 2020 - 0.85m/18.22m
September 2020 - 0.80m/19.02m
December 2020 - 1.33m/20.35m
March 2021 - 0.75m/21.10m

What are your lifetime sales expectations?

...

Bonus question: Did you bash Sword and Shield leading up to its release, but then ended up buying the game anyway?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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I expect somewhere between 22-25 million. 22 million if Arc is received well and feels like a high quality mainline game. 25 mil if Arc feels too experimental and doesn't have polish. The remasters won't impact the legs of Sw/Sh in my opinion, but Arc will one way or another.



If they keep selling 2-3 million copies a year (which seems likely as the Switch continues to grow) it will easily sell 30m lifetime.



Nintendo with the Switch:

scottslater said:

If they keep selling 2-3 million copies a year (which seems likely as the Switch continues to grow) it will easily sell 30m lifetime.

Exactly my toughts, Switch is in the middle of his lifetime, so new players and adopters will push pokemon and zelda and a lot of exclusive games beyond normal sales expectations.



34 years playing games.

 

I guessed 27m - 27.9m.  I could easily see it selling both higher or lower though.

Two things that are still unclear to me are what effect Arceus will have, and also how Game Freak is affected by Arceus.  Until now Game Freak's release schedule has been quite predictable.  Let's say Sword/Shield is analogous to X/Y on the 3DS, since they are both the first new Pokemon on the system.  Then Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl is analogous to Alpha Sapphire/Omega Ruby. 

What is analogous to Sun/Moon?  Right now I am assuming it's an unannounced game coming late 2022.  That is what my guess is based on.  But what if Game Freak thinks Arceus is analogous to Sun/Moon?  Or maybe they don't think Arceus is analogous to Sun/Moon, but it's development still delays the release of the next Pokemon game?  Either way, I can see Arceus affecting Game Freak's development schedule so that the next Pokemon is not late 2022, and if that happens then my guess is going to be off.



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It is definitively going to beat Gold/Silver, but I'm sure Game Freak will release another gen before getting close to RBG.

Also, goddammit, people, this is not the way you get Game Freak to change course. All of that complaining about the lack of features and the burning of the series to end up making it the second best selling game of the series.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

16 million lifetime. I refuse to believe that it will sell better than X&Y.



I expected it to sell 2 copies at most, but that was since long gone.



I still think seeing how other franchises like AC, Zelda, 3D Mario and Smash grew dramatically in sales (and that list goes on), that Pokemon Sword and Shield was a missed opportunity to step it up a level. Don't get me wrong, 21m is still impressive, but it's no longer considered juggernaut numbers. Really think Game Freak missed a number here to capitalise on the Pokemon Go craze and impressive Switch hardware numbers.



Pokemon Let's go has been showing some decent legs (for a Pokemon game). I feel like Sword and Shield will have better legs and propel its total past 26 million.



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