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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox Series X|S Lifetime Sales Predictions

 

How well do you think Xbox Series X|S will sell lifetime?

Under 25 million 2 3.13%
 
25-50 million 11 17.19%
 
50-75 million 38 59.38%
 
75-100 million 11 17.19%
 
100+ million 2 3.13%
 
Total:64

It might be early days in the life of the Xbox Series X|S consoles, especially with the Series X selling out everywhere and the Series S hard to find in most places. But let's do some early predictions for how well you think Microsoft's latest consoles might sell in its lifetime. 

Here are the sales of the other Xbox consoles:

  • Xbox - 24.65 million
  • Xbox 360 - 85.81 million
  • Xbox One - 50.04 million and counting. (Likely to end up around 51m lifetime)


VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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60-70 million is my guess, maybe 80 million at most. They didn't make anywhere close to as many mistakes like they did with the Xbox One, are highly consumer friendly right now and have a ton of exclusives coming in the following years.
But them bringing all of their games to PC and their focus on Gamepass will imo hold the Xbox Series off of selling more, considering Gamepass is also on PC and Android. Selling the console isn't Microsoft's main focus anymore.



Kakadu18 said:

60-70 million is my guess, maybe 80 million at most. They didn't make anywhere close to as many mistakes like they did with the Xbox One, are highly consumer friendly right now and have a ton of exclusives coming in the following years.
But them bringing all of their games to PC and their focus on Gamepass will imo hold the Xbox Series off of selling more, considering Gamepass is also on PC and Android. Selling the console isn't Microsoft's main focus anymore.

I fully expect Game Pass via xCloud to be available on smart TVs in the near future where all you need is to pay for Game Pass Ultimate and an Xbox controller. 

As for lifetime Xbox Series X|S sales I see it selling 70-80 million lifetime, so I voted 75-100 million to be optimistic. Microsoft didn't repeat the Xbox One mistakes and has a much stronger first-party lineup than the last generation. But as you pointed out having all their games on PC and Android will hinder some sales of the consoles. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Kakadu18 said:

60-70 million is my guess, maybe 80 million at most. They didn't make anywhere close to as many mistakes like they did with the Xbox One, are highly consumer friendly right now and have a ton of exclusives coming in the following years.
But them bringing all of their games to PC and their focus on Gamepass will imo hold the Xbox Series off of selling more, considering Gamepass is also on PC and Android. Selling the console isn't Microsoft's main focus anymore.

Basically this. 

I think it is way too early to tell, but 60-70 million would be my initial prediction.



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I'll also go with 60-70 million. The hardware is much more appealing than the original bulky and underpowered Xbox One model was and it should have a better library too though the PS5 isn't making any big mistakes so it'll be tough to claw back a lot of market share but the positives should make it regain at least some that was lost.



I voted 100+. 3 reasons:

- I do not believe xCloud will cannibalize the sales of the consoles at all. xCloud is an option to be able to play games remotely only and people will want to full console or PC experience at the end. This is why Google failed imo, people do not want to be locked behind their internet connection while playing a game at full price...
- The Xbox Series S will probably go down by a lot in price in the coming years and will become the GamePass console that everyone will want to buy. I fully expect the S to actually outsell the X in the long run (or closely match it) when all the GamePass exclusives will start popping up.
- This time, Microsoft is starting the generation in a very good position compared to last time. Sure, it will take time to regain some market share from Sony but I believe they are in a very good position to do so. They will come up with a truckload of exclusives that will drive the sales of the console.



If all their new first party investment actually results in a steady stream of high quality games, then between the Series S, and Gamepass, MS could potentially have it's best generation yet. However, it's also possible, that even if their game output reaches an all time high in terms of quality and quantity, it would ultimately allow them to leverage xCloud/Gamepass onto rival platforms in one form or another, which we know is really more interesting to MS than selling a lot of consoles. I feel pretty comfortable in saying that they'll outpace the Xbox One by some margin, but beyond that, it's kinda hard to say how many units they'll end up moving. If I had to put money on it, I'd guess somewhere in the ballpark of 70 million.



Imaginedvl said:

I voted 100+. 3 reasons:

- I do not believe xCloud will cannibalize the sales of the consoles at all. xCloud is an option to be able to play games remotely only and people will want to full console or PC experience at the end. This is why Google failed imo, people do not want to be locked behind their internet connection while playing a game at full price...
- The Xbox Series S will probably go down by a lot in price in the coming years and will become the GamePass console that everyone will want to buy. I fully expect the S to actually outsell the X in the long run (or closely match it) when all the GamePass exclusives will start popping up.
- This time, Microsoft is starting the generation in a very good position compared to last time. Sure, it will take time to regain some market share from Sony but I believe they are in a very good position to do so. They will come up with a truckload of exclusives that will drive the sales of the console.

You might wanna read this article before getting to that conclusion.

"Previous generations were kind of easy because at the beginning of the generation, you make something really expensive - put as much silicon and as much performance as you could into it - then you would just ride the cost reduction curves down to mass market prices. That's not there anymore," 

Eurogamer



chakkra said:

You might wanna read this article before getting to that conclusion.

"Previous generations were kind of easy because at the beginning of the generation, you make something really expensive - put as much silicon and as much performance as you could into it - then you would just ride the cost reduction curves down to mass market prices. That's not there anymore," 

Eurogamer

There is multiple factors that can reduce/affect the price of the console. Not only the silicon. I'm still sticking with my belief on that point, the console price will go down, like every generation :)