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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Sales Update April 2021 approaches: Thoughts and Guesses

It's that time of the year again: Where in Jan, April, July, and October Nintendo releases sales reports that, seemingly uniquely among the major game types, reveal game sales numbers that can easily be plugged into a Wikipedia page. 

Mostly for new games and the top games, but we still like talking about it and with it coming up in the future let us begin the pondering of what to expect. 



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Yeah, this time they will release it on May 6th



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Oh boy i can't wait to see it i always get exited with Sales Figures don't know why.



We at least know HW:AOC has reached 3.7m and MH:R has hit 6m from numbers provided by the developers themselves. 



I have a feeling the estimates are going to be well below actual sales figures.



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Given how well sell-through numbers have held up in early 2021, it's safe to expect that Nintendo will fly past their projected hardware shipments for Q4 (~2.5m) by a significant margin. The total for the fiscal year should be 29-30m, making it one of the biggest years ever for any console (only beat by the DS's peak). The forecast for the next fiscal year will most likely be on the conservative side again, so around 25m, a figure that Nintendo can beat again.

LTD first party game sales will approach 300m units with the upcoming fiscal report, so it's looking very good for Switch to sell 500m+ first party games during its lifetime. Consequently, Switch becoming the first Nintendo console with total software sales above one billion units seems to be a given.



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5.5-6.5M. for HW.

Last year sell-through was ~5M, but manufacturing had shut down in in Q1 in China due to COVID and the demand surge hit right at the end of the Q - Nintendo was not able to rebound from both factors (underforecast + production shock) until mid-way through the summer quarter, which is why shipments lagged behind sell-through from Jan-Jun. This lag is also responsible for the shortage in the holiday quarter.

This year, none of that is an issue. Internally, Nintendo knows they're annualized sell-rate target is 30-35M, there are no manufacturing problems and we already see that we're not seeing major extended shortages (though they have cropped up a few weeks in the US and JP, mostly for the hybrid model). Thus I expect shipments to be in-line or ahead of sell-through. In 2020, there weren't enough consoles to satisfy JAn-Mar demand, let alone to ship a buffer for April. This year its the opposite, and that's despite higher sell-through by almost 20%.



RolStoppable said:

Given how well sell-through numbers have held up in early 2021, it's safe to expect that Nintendo will fly past their projected hardware shipments for Q4 (~2.5m) by a significant margin. The total for the fiscal year should be 29-30m, making it one of the biggest years ever for any console (only beat by the DS's peak). The forecast for the next fiscal year will most likely be on the conservative side again, so around 25m, a figure that Nintendo can beat again.

LTD first party game sales will approach 300m units with the upcoming fiscal report, so it's looking very good for Switch to sell 500m+ first party games during its lifetime. Consequently, Switch becoming the first Nintendo console with total software sales above one billion units seems to be a given.

It's a hybrid in more senses of the word than its functionality. It's selling handheld numbers of hardware and home console numbers of software. And is looking to break records in both arenas.



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