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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The Beautiful, Yet So BOLD Prediction! The Nintendo Switch... 200Mil!

 

What do you expect for NSW lifetime?

110mil-120mil 8 11.59%
 
Roughly 130mil-145mil 18 26.09%
 
145mil-160mil (ps2/DS range) 21 30.43%
 
161mil-189mil best selling Console ever 18 26.09%
 
190mil-200mil+ (BOLD) 4 5.80%
 
Total:69


I got the updated one for y’all here. Hopefully I don’t look like a fool in a year or 2 lmao...

Near 200mil NSW will be shipped Worldwide by its end!!! (So 190mil+)

Here is shipments and forecast of how it happens...

NSW By Fiscal Years(currently 68.27mil)

Y17: 2.74mil
Y18: 15.05mil
Y19: 16.93mil
Y20: 21.03mil
Y21: 30.00mil (24.01mil Currently)

Y22: 31.00mil
Y23: 24.50mil
Y24: 18.25mil
Y25: 13.25mil
Y26: 9.00mil
Y27+ 10mil Another few years

Total: A lot

Reference.......

Best selling consoles are

PS2: 160mil+
DS: 150mil+
PS4: 115mil-120mil



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Ah, gonna be the first! I personally think it is going to end up in the DS/PS2 side of things, but I'm willing to up my game and voted above 161mil. Because... why not? lol



General gamer, fanboy hater

That's... Really bold. I think the Switch will outsell the PS4 soon, but to outsell the DS, the PS2, and hit the 200 million mark is scary. I also believe that the Switch successor will arrive around 2023.

But well, I won't discard it completely. Nintendo already proved a lot of people wrong.



Come on T-Dawg, this is way too bold, even for you.



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

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It will sell a billion, lawmakers around the world will make obligatory the possession of a Switch.



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I know it will backfire but IDGAF 

I'm IN

My current predictions:

2021: 30-32 million (peak)

2022: 22-24 million 

2023: 16-18 million 

2024: 11-12 million (speculations of Wwitch successor starts to pop up)

2025: 9-11 million (Switch2 launch year)

2026: 6-8 million 

2027+: 7 million

Lifetime: 198-205 million 

See you in 5 years 



I won't underestimate you after all that bold predictions went true. But this is REALLY bold, like the boldest bold prediction.

My guess is:

FY20 - 28.5m
FY21 - 25m
FY22 - 18m
FY23 - 12m
FY24 - 8m
FY25 and beyond - 7m

Total - 154.5m



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IcaroRibeiro said:

I know it will backfire but IDGAF 

I'm IN

My current predictions:

2021: 30-32 million (peak)

2022: 22-24 million 

2023: 16-18 million 

2024: 11-12 million (speculations of Wwitch successor starts to pop up)

2025: 9-11 million (Switch2 launch year)

2026: 6-8 million 

2027+: 7 million

Lifetime: 198-205 million 

See you in 5 years 

I’m sorry I’m a number asshole, but your numbers add up to 181mil-192mil 😉 



I voted 161m-189m, but I would love to be wrong on this. I can definitely see 200m+ as a possibility, but I think the 161-189m is more likely.



I love the boldness. I think you're right about how high it will peak over the next couple years and I've agreed for a while that Nintendo plans to give this system more longevity than usual, but I also believe once Nintendo does start to look beyond it (2024-2025) sales will tail off fairly quickly, similar to the PS4 right now. Can't see it adding over 30m units in 2025+.

I'll say it sneaks over 160m, maybe gets to within ~170m, but I won't go any higher than that for now.
FY24: 10-15m
FY25: 5-10m
FY26+: 5-10m

Think that puts me roughly on track. Haven't cracked any real numbers so it's just a general guesstimate.