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Forums - Sales Discussion - Your sales expectations for 2021

What are your expectations about the sales of the consoles this year?

My expectations are:

Switch: 25M

PS5: 15M

XSX: 10M

PS4: 3M

XB1: 1M



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Very difficult to make predictions for Series S|X and PS5 right now due to the AMD semi-conductor shortage which is expected to kill their stock for the first half of the year. We don't know how many they will manage to produce in the first half of the year, now how much the production will improve in the 2nd half of the year, only that it will improve. Even Switch may have some shortages this year. We also don't really know what the exclusives situation is going to be like for the year, Nintendo and MS have very few 2021 games announced currently, though there are several that could possibly be announced like Starfield, Wolfenstein 3, and Forza Horizon 5 for Xbox and Pokemon Gen 4 Remakes for Switch. Meanwhile, Sony has alot of 2021 exclusives announced, but how many will end up delayed into 2022? We just don't know. So I will give a range instead of a single number:

Switch: 23-25m
PS5: 13-16m
Xbox Series: 8-11m
PS4: 3m
Xbox One: 1m

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 13 February 2021

NS- 24m

PS5- 15m

XBS- 9m

PS4- 2.5m

XBO- 1m



For reference here were 2020's numbers:
PS4 - 8.8m
XB1 - 3.2m
NSW -28.3m

Here is what PS4 and XB1 sold in 2014, their first full year:
PS4 - 14.4m
XB1 - 7.6m

Anyway this is my actual prediction:

NSW - 26m
PS5 - 12m
X|S - 7m
PS4 - 3.5m
XB1 - 1m



Worldwide

NSW: 24M
PS5: 11M
XBS: 7M

U.S.

NSW: 7.5M
PS5: 4.25M
XBS: 4M


Japan

NSW: 5.5M
PS5: 850k
XBS: 40k


Europe

NSW: 6.5M
PS5: 5M
XBS: 2M

Predicting the PS5 & Series X|S is a tough one. Stock issues are going to be a limiting factor, but for how long, and will eventual restocks allow the to make up for it later in the year?

Even the Switch isn't easy as demand for consoles in general is still up due to the pandemic. However, stock issues could hurt it as well as that's been a recurring issues with consoles.

For all of them, even assuming good stock the pandemic will likely continue to result in inflated demand for consoles. Will life fully return to normal early enough for people to start spending money on what is tremendous pent-up demand for away-from-home entertainment? If stock is plentiful and there's no end in sight for COVID by the latter half of the year, then a cooped-up public could still continue to spend greater-than-normal amounts of money on at-home entertainment like consoles.

In any case, I'm going to assume that the Switch experiences a roughly 15% YoY drop and that total PS5 & Series X|S sales will be slightly worst than total PS4+XBO sales were in 2014,with the two of them being slightly closer than their predecessors, esp. in the U.S.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 13 February 2021

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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

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It's in my signature, but for good measure:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

The old consoles... Well, much less than PS3 and Xbox 360 sold in 2014, that's for sure.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

Switch - 25m
PS5 - 14m
Xbox Series X|S - 8m
PS4 - 2.5m
Xbox One - 800k

Extremely hard to predict sales for this year

- I put Switch at 25m with It being slightly down compared to last year, but honestly, wouldn't be surprised if it even manages to break 30m mark
- PS5/Series X|S. Still no idea on what the real demand is for these consoles and with supply issues still being a thing until at least summer, it doesn't help to analyse the real demand. If we just take January numbers, PS5 should do around the same as what PS4 did back in 2014, while Series X|S is on a pace to sell better than Xbox One in 2014, but Xbox One was limited to just 13 countries until late 2014
- PS4/Xbox One both will fall behind what PS3/X360 managed to achieve after them being replaced for obvious reasons - backwards compatibility. Back in 2014 for some huge games like GTA 5 for example, you had to buy either PS3 or X360 because it wasn't playable on new consoles. This isn't the case anymore, so anyone willing to buy Playstation or Xbox console will obviously go with newer machines.

Bonus prediction: Xbox One will be discontinued by the end of the year



 

Switch: 28M
PS5: 13M
XS: 8M
PS4: 2M
XS: 1M



Switch: 29M

PS5: 11M

XS: 6M

PS4: 3M

XO: <1M



Switch 25 million
PS5: 15 million
Xbox Series: 6 million



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