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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units will Switch sell in Japan?

 

How many units will Switch sell in Japan?

20-24M 2 3.08%
 
24-26M 1 1.54%
 
26-28M 4 6.15%
 
28-30M 10 15.38%
 
30-32M 17 26.15%
 
32-34M 19 29.23%
 
34-36M 6 9.23%
 
36M+ 6 9.23%
 
Total:65

What do ya'll think?

I'm thinking 30-31Million



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I feel like it would just barely eek out past the DS and GB, both sitting at 32 and something mil



Gut feeling says 28.5m.



Let's go crazy, as Prince once sung, and say 32-34 million.



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hard to say now



At the very worst the Switch will sell 28M in Japan, but probably over 30.



Since I expect this to be another ~6 million year and I don't expect it to completely plummet like a rock afterwards either, I think it has a real shot at matching or beating the DS when all is said and done. So 32-34 mil is my honest guess at this point.



Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

34-36m

Switch is going to adopt the markets from 3DS, Vita, Wii U and part of PS4.



I'll go with 30-32 million. It'll reach 22-23 this year, probably 26-27 by the end of 2022, probably 29-30 by the end of 2023 and then sales will slow a lot due to saturation so it won't sell that much in 2024 especially since the Switch 2 will likely come out that year and since that should be backwards compatible I expect the Switch to have low post successor sales in Japan like the DS so it'll likely stop close to the sales of that and the Gameboy. I won't be surprised if it does somewhat better than that though and overtakes the DS and the fact it has a shot of doing that is extremely impressive considering that Japan's population and most importantly young population has declined a tad in the past 10-15 years so even if it doesn't beat the DS in total sales it'll likely still beat it in sales per capita especially among young people which will still be a big achievement.