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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2021?


Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2021?

Less than 5 million 120 14.83%
5.0 - 5.9 million 63 7.79%
6.0 - 6.9 million 67 8.28%
7.0 - 7.9 million 99 12.24%
8.0 - 8.9 million 125 15.45%
9.0 - 9.9 million 74 9.15%
10.0 - 11.9 million 163 20.15%
12.0 - 13.9 million 38 4.70%
14.0 - 16.0 million 22 2.72%
More than 16 million 38 4.70%

How much do you expect the Xbox Series X|S to sell this year?

For reference, here is what the Xbox One sold through in its first full calendar year, according to VGC estimates:



Bonus question: Which officially announced Xbox Series X|S game are you looking forward to the most?

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Seeing as the strategy of spliting their userbase with different hardware, which one of them hasn't exactly found the footing some expected here.

Mmmm ... I'm predicting something around 6,5-7,5M. supply issues early on and lack of big releases during the overall year will play a part in the lack of a constant stream of good weekly sales, especially worldwide outside the US.

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I clicked 9-10 million, but it should be more than that. But who knows, we live in an unpredictable era where supplies are scarce due to the cov19 situation and both consoles seem to be on par performance wise.

As for my most anticipated Xbox title, Perfect Dark seems to be the most ambitious one. I haven’t ever played the first ones, but I hope it’s not necessary in order to grasp the story.

Seeing as how their first year is weaker than the ex1's first year games wise I think it will do a bit less. So maybe between 6 to 7 million. Seems like the xbox series has less mindshare outside the US then the x1 had. It also seems that the are not even thinking of being competitive untill 2022.

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Didnt they have some sort of production issue that caused them to start late?
I expect Series X+S, to be lower first year than Xbox One was.

RolStoppable said:

For reference, here is what the Xbox One sold through in its first full calendar year, according to VGC estimates:


Yep pretty sure, Series X+S does less than this in its first calendar year.

After giveing it a little more throught, I think it ll probably be abit over 6m.

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Question: How well does Cyberpunk 2077 run on the Series S?  Is it closer to PS5's performance or PS4's performance?  I can see the Series S at $300 being a attractive buy for some people if can run Cyberpunk well.

6m as the current line up stands, depending on their holiday strategy however they can do better. I just have doubts they have anything significant to push systems.


Less than 7 million

I will bet 6-6.9 range

I expect somewhat more than with the XBO, around 8.5M

A lot depends on how long it takes MS to increase production, because so far their production capabilities are poor, so far they are not even close to meeting initial demand, consoles are still selling as fast as they are restocked in core markets and even in some niche markets. A lot also depends on rather or not Starfield makes 2021 and rather or not it, and other Bethesda games, will be Xbox/PC exclusive.

I’d say the bottom end prediction is 7.5m if they take their sweet time increasing production and Starfield doesn’t make 2021, while top end prediction would be maybe 11m if all the stars align (MS increases production soon, Starfield makes 2021 and is exclusive to Xbox/PC, Forza Horizon 5 makes 2021, Halo makes 2021 and reviews well, Holiday bundles for both a big 3rd marketing deal game and Halo or Starfield).

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 19 January 2021