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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS5 Data Analysis: MAR Update (PS5 is now ahead of PS4 in Gap)

UPDATE: March year 1

Hello everyone, every month I will be updating this thread with the latest Profiles. Here is the latest. You can click above to see the thread discussion of this month.

 

Last edited by dmillos - on 22 April 2021

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Hi Everyone, continuing with the Data analysis of the PS5, here is a look at what January could possibly look like.

First lets look at how all consoles sold during the same weeks of the PS5 Week 5-8 (these are month aligned, so we look at the NS holiday season as well)

We have that the PS5 sold very similar to the XOne and also somewhere in Between the DS and the Wii. I don't think that the XOne was as supply constrained as the PS5, but I do believe that the Wii had a similar situation, so I think we can look at what happened to the Wii for better reference.

I also think that right now companies should be able to produce more units than what they produced before, but corona might severely limit those capabilities.

Now let's look at week 9-12 for all consoles:

The XOne sold only 267K units, but I don't think these weeks will be similar for the PS5, like I said, I believe it should be more similar to the Wii. I think the million dollar question here is how much can Sony produce and ship. Without Corona I think there is no doubt that PS5 would break this record, but with limits in shipping, manufacturing, and selling. There has to be an impact still. 

My Spidey sense tells me that it should be between 800-900K but that is not fun, so my bet will be for 1000K-11000K. I want the PS5  to break records.

Some of you might also be wondering what the Gap chart looks like with this new Update, here it is:

The PS4 was able to beat the PS5 for a 6th consecutive week. The PS5 still has a 228K lead.

Week 9 was 188K for the PS4 so if I want my prediction to be correct, I really hope the PS5 stops this streak and starts turning this chart around.



dmillos said:

Hi Everyone, continuing with the Data analysis of the PS5, here is a look at what January could possibly look like.

First lets look at how all consoles sold during the same weeks of the PS5 Week 5-8 (these are month aligned, so we look at the NS holiday season as well)

Some of you might also be wondering what the Gap chart looks like with this new Update, here it is:

The PS4 was able to beat the PS5 for a 6th consecutive week. The PS5 still has a 228K lead.

Week 9 was 188K for the PS4 so if I want my prediction to be correct, I really hope the PS5 stops this streak and starts turning this chart around.

I think PS4 might take 1 or 2 more weeks, then unless Sony is having severe difficulties with the supply chain the gap should level off & start to increase.



HigHurtenflurst said:

I think PS4 might take 1 or 2 more weeks, then unless Sony is having severe difficulties with the supply chain the gap should level off & start to increase.

Hi @HigHurtenflurst you were correct, the PS4 did manage to stay ahead another week. 

The gap is now at 190k this lead is enough to last the PS5 a few weeks, so maybe by then, the stock issues will improve and it may never reach negative values:

Now with the bet for this thread, I think things are complicated. There are only 3 weeks left in january, so it should be hard for the PS5 to reach very good numbers:

The first week was very similar to what the X360 sold the first week, so if that trend continues, it should sell close  to 500K. Personally I don't think it should be that low. The PS4 sold 689K so hopefully it will be closer to that.



PS5 has dropped more than I thought though, assuming no adjustments if 150k is indicative of the PS5 weekly supply level then PS4s steady 160/170k should continue to close the gap. PS5 will at least keep the lead until 3rd February week (PS4 Japan launch).... After that looks like PS4 went back to a steady 160/170k through to September, which I think was GTA5 release. PS5 will need to beat that to regain the lead.

Given the level of demand I would expect Sony to be aiming at 180-200k weekly shipments for non holiday weeks (through September), this 150k may just be a blip due to new year transition, or maybe covid chip shortage & shipping difficulties are going to have a bigger effect.



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Sony is selling every PS5 that gets produced and put into the distribution channel. They are at the whim of what the factories can produce. I do see it getting better as they improve the manufacturing side of things with time. The problem is, we've still got countless factories running at limited capacity working with parts that still aren't readily available either.



Week ending 23rd of January will see a Nice increase since most regions received some significant stock.



Besides current production capacity, components supplies and other logistic problems, I guess another big problem for Sony is that, given that right now they sell every PS5 they ship, they can't calculate yet what will need to be the baseline production capacity after the initial hype end.



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