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Forums - Sales Discussion - Extra Easy Prediction: The PS4 won't be the eighth gen console with the best post-successor sales

In order to create some contrast to the bold prediction threads we have around here, I intend to make a series of predictions where the results are clear as day. Today I do one for the eighth generation.

The PS5 has launched a couple of weeks ago, so the PS4 is now in the final stage of its lifecycle. I am sure you've heard about how PS consoles have allegedly such great legs, and maybe you also know that I am not one to go with the bandwagon of conventional wisdom. "Post-successor sales" measure the sales during the timeframe from replacement until the end of life for a console, so in the case of the PS4, from the day the PS5 launched until the PS4 is discontinued. The same metric applies to all other eighth gen consoles.

As stated in the thread title, I predict that the PS4 won't be the eighth gen console with the best post-successor sales.

Hopefully this will finally put an end to the belief that PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting, because the PS4 will already be the fourth PS console in a row (PSP, PS3, PSV, PS4) that didn't come anywhere close to the post-successor sales of the PS1 and PS2. It's overdue that people move on and get with the times. However, I am not going to predict that people will get with the times, because predicting feelings is not the same as predicting facts.



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In a way, I agree.

Curious though which 8th gen console you feel would take that crown.



You are right that is pretty easy. People are delusional thinking that PS consoles have great Post-successor sales. The PS3 had trash legs, but it was doing far better than the PS4 is now. Although you predicted the PS4 to do pretty decently post PS5 launch. PS3 did 7.4m post PS4 launch and you called less than 120m as troll, so I can only assume you expect more than 6m for the PS4.



RolStoppable said:

Hopefully this will finally put an end to the belief that PS consoles are incredibly long-lasting

There's no reason to end that belief, data clearly shows Playstation consoles are long-lasting, it's an indisputable fact. Xbox 360 being the console with the best legs.

First 5 YearsLifetime% of sales after first 5 years
Xbox 36046.96m85.8m45.20%
PS287.47m157.68m44.50%
PS356.365m87.41m35.50%
PSP54.78m81.09m32.40%
PS172.97m (March 2000)102.54m28.80%
DS113.58m154.9m26.70%
3DS57.02m75.83m24.80%
PS486.465m113.9m24% (still increasing)
Xbox One39.39m48.55m18.8% (still increasing)
Wii90.21m101.64m11.20%
Vita14.94m16.21m7.80%
Wii U13.55m13.97m3.00%
Gamecube21.2m21.74m2.50%
N6432.71m32.92m0.70%
Xbox24.5m24.5m0.00%

As for the actual post-successor focus of your thread, this boils down to PS4 vs 3DS which you could have put the data for in your OP.

3DS post successor sales were 11.3m, meaning the ps4 needs to get to 125.1m lifetime sales to beat it's post successor sales. It certainly won't be that easy but with PS4 support going into 2021 (Horizon 2), it's certainly not impossible either.

PS3 managed 8.19m post successor, 11.3m for PS4 post successor is easily feasible.

60/40 in favour of 3DS.



Intrinsic said:

In a way, I agree.

Curious though which 8th gen console you feel would take that crown.

3DS sold >3.5M in 2018, >1.5M in 2019 and so far 378K in 2020. In 2017 it sold 5.8M post Switch-launch. So it sold >11M after the Switch launch. I doubt anything else comes close.



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I agree it (probably - depends on Nintendo's strategy) won't. But the reasons why are interesting. It's primarily because Sony's strategy seems to be to cut the PS4's legs out from under it in order to increase PS5 take-up, creating shortages by moving production to PS5 (which won't be returned regardless of demand) and not reducing the price.

The PS4 could have had very strong post-predecessor sales, but I think Sony's calculated that a PS2 v PS3 scenario (where a budget-priced PS4 continues to be produced alongside the more expensive next-gen platform) isn't as profitable as trying to move most of those purchases straight on to the PS5.

Last edited by Machina - on 30 November 2020

Mnementh said:
Intrinsic said:

In a way, I agree.

Curious though which 8th gen console you feel would take that crown.

3DS sold >3.5M in 2018, >1.5M in 2019 and so far 378K in 2020. In 2017 it sold 5.8M post Switch-launch. So it sold >11M after the Switch launch. I doubt anything else comes close.

PS3 sold 8.19m post successor, and PS4 is still selling more than it launch aligned.

PS3 Jan - Oct 2013 = 5,953,251
PS4 Jan - Oct 2020 = 7,597,738

PS4 is also seemingly getting better support, PS3's last major 1st party title was DEC 2013 with GT6. PS4 is getting Horizon 2 next year and just got a major title in Miles Morales, and a lesser one in sackboy.

3DS sold 11.3m post successor, PS4 might not beat it but it will easily come close.

If PS4 got an official price cut it would breeze past the 11.3m, but I doubt that is going to happen so it will be a much tighter race.



Tbh it all depends on whether or not Sony Makes a PS4 Mini model for 149.99$ (similar to PS2, DS, Wii 99$ at the end of its life-cycle, or PS3 Super-Slim in 2012)


Even if they sold it at a loss it would be worth it imo compared to Previous Gens where PS walled-Garden Exists Nowadays and the more User-Base the more Revenue they would Generate


like seriously why would anyone waste 299$ when could get a Next gen console for 100$ more (and even worst for PS4 Pro, since its literally the same price as the PS5 DE)

another factor to take is that Unlike the PS4, Switch or Xbox One at launch, the PS5 & Series X/S is Backwards Compatible with its previous Gens

as for why PS1,PS2 had much stronger legs (Despite new Gen having BC) was due to PS1 being 99$ (Dropped to 49$ in 2002) at the launch of the PS2 (which was 299$), and even to greater extent the PS2 was 99$ against the Gargantuan 599$ PS3

https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Price_cuts

tbh id be more interested to see how strong the GBA legs were during the DS Gen

Last edited by B6a6es - on 30 November 2020

Barkley said:
Mnementh said:

3DS sold >3.5M in 2018, >1.5M in 2019 and so far 378K in 2020. In 2017 it sold 5.8M post Switch-launch. So it sold >11M after the Switch launch. I doubt anything else comes close.

PS3 sold 8.19m post successor, and PS4 is still selling more than it launch aligned.

PS3 Jan - Oct 2013 = 5,953,251
PS4 Jan - Oct 2020 = 7,597,738

PS4 is also seemingly getting better support, PS3's last major 1st party title was DEC 2013 with GT6. PS4 is getting Horizon 2 next year and just got a major title in Miles Morales, and a lesser one in sackboy.

3DS sold 11.3m post successor, PS4 might not beat it but it will easily come close.

If PS4 got an official price cut it would breeze past the 11.3m, but I doubt that is going to happen so it will be a much tighter race.

Yeah, maybe it isn't an extra easy prediction as Rol suggests. I only provided the most likely candidate of selling more post successor launch.

Maybe Rol should add a bet to the thread, if he feels that his confidence in words match his confidence to put hard-earned VG-chash down.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year], [1], [2], [3], [4]

That is a pretty bold prediction.

Sure, it won't sell as well as the PS1/2. But that's not what you're predicting here. You're predicting that one of the Wii U, Xbox One or 3DS will do better. Wii U isn't really worth mentioning. Xbox One I can only see happen if a huge number of people get the Xbox One X and Series X mixed up. I suppose you should never underestimate the stupidity of people, but still... So that just leaves the 3DS, which IIRC dropped pretty hard after the Switch launched.

The only way this would be an "extra easy" prediction is if you're including the Switch as one of the 8th gen consoles. In which case, yeah, I could definitely see the Switch selling more post-Nintendo 9 launch than the PS4 does post-PS5 launch.