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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: NSW Will break Record this Quarter for Highest Shipment Ever! (14mil+)

 

NSW Will Ship

Under 10mil 4 8.70%
 
10mil 0 0%
 
11mil 4 8.70%
 
12mil 17 36.96%
 
13mil 13 28.26%
 
14mil+ 8 17.39%
 
Total:46

Yes that’s a lot, in fact it’s so much it seems to be insane. But I’m going for it, 14mil (watch it be 13mil lol) which is over 2mil higher than the current record.

here are the top quarter 3 shipments (oct-dec)

11.89mil NDS

11.65mil NDS

11.30mil Wii

11.15mil NDS

10.81mil NSW

How much are you predicting for the quarter? Post your thoughts



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Ah! It said 15 in the title for a moment there. Not so sure of yourself this time are you?

Anyway, would be spectacular, and I could see it happen, but maybe not quite, I don't know.



Not happening if Japan sales are anything to go by



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Been a minute since you made one of these. Good luck!



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Good for you!



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Could this news have anything to do with your prediction?:

Nintendo adds sharp as production partner to meed demand:
https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2020/11/nintendo_adding_sharp_as_switch_manufacturing_partner_could_boost_q4_sales_year-on-year

USA sales up 30 percent YoY in October:
https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2020/11/nintendo_switch_looks_poised_to_smash_crazy_records_this_holiday_season



Honestly, given the sales the Switch got this year, and how it is expected to beat 3ed Quarter of last fiscal year, I don't think that this prediction is that bold. Honestly, 12.5 million is all but garanteed(in my view), and while 14 million is higher than that, It's not that high.

So in summary, I agree with you!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Lets aim for the stars. I think they might over ship because there is a lot of momentum heading into 2021. 

Japan slightly up YoY

Japan will be only slightly up since Nintendo is likely going to prioritize it for the Monster Hunter Rise launch coming up in March, and is lacking a reason to be extremely aggressive as the PS5 isn't exactly lighting the charts on fire. Currently, according to Famitsu they've shipped around 900K to Japan, which leaves 1.1M more in the upcoming holiday period.  

NA & Europe up YoY considerably due to aggressive bundles and pricing for the holidays

With all the great value bundles across NA and European retailers, I think there will be substantial growth YoY there. Nintendo seems to be trying to take the wind away from the supply-constrained launches of its competitors and has already committed to manufacturing 30 million this year. As these are regions where Nintendo isn't a market leader at the moment they will be more aggressive with their pricing and bundles this holiday quarter. 

Other markets driving huge YoY Growth

The main growth YoY will be the "Other" regions, Nintendo only launched the Switch in China in 2019 but most of Nintendo's titles aren't officially approved by the Chinese government because of the strict regulations in China. Ring Fit Adventure only launched this September and has been a major driver of hardware sales in the country. The other games thus far approved are NSMBU, MK8D and SMO.

The other new market Switch launched in was Brazil but I anticipate we will see big growth in places like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapour, and other developing markets due to the Switch's improved accessibility and global marketing reach.  

With the growth of 150% YoY in the previous quarter from "Other" region, I think we will see similar growth in the final Quarter of the year. Last year Other amounted to around 10% of sales for Nintendo and this year I expect this to be >15%, making it very comparable to Japan's size in the overall shipments. I actually anticipate "Other" to receive a larger shipment than Japan this Quarter. 

  • Japan >2M 
  • North America >6M
  • Europe >4.5M
  • Other >2.25M

TOTAL: >14.75M



I've been thinking 13-14M since mid-year but the October numbers out of US/Europe have me gaining confidence for the high end of that range.