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Forums - Sales Discussion - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate shipped 19.99 million by June 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?


Super Smash Bros. Ultimate shipped 19.99 million by June 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 24 million 55 9.03%
24.0 - 25.9 million 108 17.73%
26.0 - 27.9 million 102 16.75%
28.0 - 29.9 million 84 13.79%
30.0 - 31.9 million 148 24.30%
32.0 - 33.9 million 25 4.11%
34.0 - 35.9 million 20 3.28%
36.0 - 37.9 million 7 1.15%
38.0 - 40.0 million 9 1.48%
More than 40 million 51 8.37%

Nintendo's fighting game behemoth Super Smash Bros. Ultimate came close to hitting 20 million with Nintendo's most recent financial update. What are your lifetime sales expectations?

Here's the game's sales progression over time. Quarter ending, followed by quarterly sales and LTD.

December 2018 - 12.08m/12.08m
March 2019 - 1.73m/13.81m
June 2019 - 0.92m/14.73m
September 2019 - 0.98m/15.71m
December 2019 - 1.97m/17.68m
March 2020 - 1.16m/18.84m
June 2020 - 1.15m/19.99m


Bonus question: Our beloved member tbone51 made the lunatic prediction that Super Smash Bros. Ultimate could hit 25 million lifetime, roughly doubling the series' previous high. About two years later the tables have turned and now the lunacy is to predict that SSBU won't hit that mark. Have you fallen victim to any of tbone51's bold predictions and if yes, what has been your takeaway from such an event?

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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I voted for 30-32 mil, probably closer to the high end.

Bonus: I remeber that tbone predicted shorty after the New Horizons launch that it would sell a ludicrous 12 mil lifetime in Japan, and while I also expected it to dethrone Red and Blue at the time, I didn't think it was possible for it to do so to quite that extent. But since AC ended up shipping over 7 mil in just the first two quarters... Yea, it'll get there.

Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

I'm pretty sure it will break the 30M mark. How far it will go from there is open for debate however.

2020 has shown that it is impossible to accurately predict the actions of a large group of people, so we should probably stop doing that altogether.

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I predict 32-34m for Smash Bros.

Bonus: I don't think I've been seriously tripped up by tbone51 "yet". (I figure it's only a matter of time though.) The closest I've come is saying "I don't know" on a bold prediction that does come true. There are a couple I've said he is too bold, but I don't think any of those have snagged me yet. (I think he predicted something like 15m for Smash before the end of 2018. That one I said is too bold.) I was dead wrong about Pokemon outselling Animal Crossing, but that wasn't a tbone51 prediction.

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It'll hit 30M. So I'll vote 30-32, which is insane, I wouldn't have guessed that it would sell so much. But that goes for a lot of games on Switch. I dread to see the end result of Mario Kart 8 and Animal Crossing.

Bonus: Yeah. It's easy to handily dismiss tbone's claims, but it also seems easy for him to be right. I've become weary to bet against his predictions; he's the opposite of Pachter or that Japanese dude that says 300M for PS5. tbone seems to be in the possession of an actual crystal ball.

I went with 30-31.9m. With DLC still coming out for at least a year (considering the pace of releases) it should keep selling steady for a while.

Bonus: I've been skeptical of tbone's predictions many times in the past, nowadays I'm more inclined to believe he's right when he goes bold.

Signature goes here!

30 million.

There's still more DLC coming and more new Switch owners to buy the game.

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima


But wait there's more!

30 million at this rate.

Bite my shiny metal cockpit!