Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Switch hit 100M Sold by December 2021?

Will the Switch hit 100M Sold By December 2021?

Yes 46 71.88%
 
No 18 28.13%
 
Total:64

What do you guys think, it's crazy to be talking about a system that could reach 100M sold before even the five year mark but now it's looking certainly possible!

The Switch is now currently forecast by Nintendo to sell 30M units in this fiscal year alone(March 2020-March 2021), that would put the Switch at 86M by March 2021, which is insane. The Switch between March 2021-December 2021 would need to only sell 14M units for the rest of 2021 to reach 100M units if Nintendo's current forecast is correct, and for the Switch that's very easy to do since the Switch could sell 14M in one Holiday Quarter imo. 

If the Switch were to hit 100M Units by December 2021, it'll take the Switch only 4 years & 10 Months to reach that milestone, which is unprecedented by a Home console and only been accomplished by the DS. Here's how the Switch would stack up to other consoles on when they hit that milestone:

1.DS 4 Years & 5 Months

2.Switch 4 Years & 10 Months

3.PS2 5 Years & 8 Months

4.PS4 5 Years & 10 Months

5.Wii 6 Years & 7 Months

6.PS1 10 Years & 4 Months 



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I'm skeptical that they're going to hit 30mm by the end of this fiscal year.  Nintendo is notoriously bad at forecasting sales, so I take everything they say with a grain of salt. But, if they do that (or even 28mm), 100 million by the end of calendar 2021 seems reasonable.



Hmm I hit No without really thinking about it but if I could change it to Yes I would!



per 19th sept we at 64.8m per okt 31 we at 67.5m add 10mil for nov + dec 77.5
22,5m in 2021? piece of cake we blowing past 115million end 2021



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VAMatt said:

I'm skeptical that they're going to hit 30mm by the end of this fiscal year.  Nintendo is notoriously bad at forecasting sales, so I take everything they say with a grain of salt. But, if they do that (or even 28mm), 100 million by the end of calendar 2021 seems reasonable.

Your right, they are horrible at forecasting sales. 19mil for this FY meanwhile it’ll be off by close to 10mil xD



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Looking at 28m this FY by my estimate so that takes it to 84m by end of March 2021 so another 16m across rest of 2021 is a sure thing.



The only way it doesn't hit 100m+ by Dec 2021 is if the dreaded Cliff™ makes an appearance.



No, though it can get within a couple of million.

Oh but if we're talking shipments then yes it will probably ship 100m by end of 2021.



It's possible it just comes down to how much they move this coming holiday and if they can meet demand.



It's possible. But I would hedge my bets more on 90-97 million. I know that's a broad range, but the Switch has been so tough to predict.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

PS4: 130 mil (was 100 million) Xbox One: 55 mil (was 50 mil) Switch: 110 million (was 73, then 96 million)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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