Hi guys, i like doing predictions, so here's mine for PS5 launch. I predict Sony will ship 10 million PS5 the first Fyscal Year, ending March 2021.
I made a youtube video if any of you are interested.
In this video i speak my original language, because i'm not good at speaking english, but i translated, so you can still understand.
Basically, in my video i say that i originally predicted 6 million PS5 shipped in 2020, and 9 million in the first fiscal year, this was back in January 2020 when COVID was not a thing yet.
After that, the videogame market had a big boost, and of course Sony increased the production for the PS5. Because of that, i increased my prediction by around 1 million, both for 2020 and the Fyscal Year, which mean i expect 7 million PS5 in 2020 and 10 million by March 31 2021.
I always predicted PS5 to ship more than PS4 at launch, even with a bigger price, mainly because:
01. Sony was not expecting the huge demand the PS4 had. They planned to ship 5 million the first Fyscal Year, and they shipped 7.5 million in the end, 50% more than expected. PS4 was sold in most markets in the world. This time, they know what the domand for a Playstation console can be in today market at launch. So they'll ship more units, and basically sell almost everything they ship just like with PS4.
02. consoles and videogames launch keep getting bigger. While i think the PS5 will have a better launch compared to PS4, i don't expect PS5 to reach PS4 lifetime sales, which will be between 120 and 130 million (125 million most likely)
03. PS5 will have a worldwide launch in November, compared to PS4 which released in Japan in February 2014. Now, i don't think this will make a huge difference, considering the current situation of the home console market, but it's still an advantage PS5 will have.
And of course, after that, the COVID boost.
For context, PS4 shipped 4.5 million in 2013, and 7.5 million in March 2014. So i expect A 56% increase the first 2 months, and 34% the first Fyscal year.
For a comparation, in January 2017, i predicted Switch to ship 15 million units the in 2017, and that prediction was only 1% off (14.86 million). Hope this prediction will be just as good (even though i wish all my predictions were like that. :P)
So what you think? too much? too low? make your own prediction.
2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.