Forums - Sales Discussion - I predict 10 million PS5 shipped by March 2021

PS4 shipments by March 2021

7 million or less (less than PS4) 5 12.50%
 
8 million 5 12.50%
 
9 million 8 20.00%
 
10 million 15 37.50%
 
11 million or more 7 17.50%
 
Total:40

Hi guys, i like doing predictions, so here's mine for PS5 launch. I predict Sony will ship 10 million PS5 the first Fyscal Year, ending March 2021.

I made a youtube video if any of you are interested.

In this video i speak my original language, because i'm not good at speaking english, but i translated, so you can still understand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXQb-hqa75Y

Basically, in my video i say that i originally predicted 6 million PS5 shipped in 2020, and 9 million in the first fiscal year, this was back in January 2020 when COVID was not a thing yet.

After that, the videogame market had a big boost, and of course Sony increased the production for the PS5. Because of that, i increased my prediction by around 1 million, both for 2020 and the Fyscal Year, which mean i expect 7 million PS5 in 2020 and 10 million by March 31 2021.

I always predicted PS5 to ship more than PS4 at launch, even with a bigger price, mainly because:

01. Sony was not expecting the huge demand the PS4 had. They planned to ship 5 million the first Fyscal Year, and they shipped 7.5 million in the end, 50% more than expected. PS4 was sold in most markets in the world. This time, they know what the domand for a Playstation console can be in today market at launch. So they'll ship more units, and basically sell almost everything they ship just like with PS4.

02. consoles and videogames launch keep getting bigger. While i think the PS5 will have a better launch compared to PS4, i don't expect PS5 to reach PS4 lifetime sales, which will be between 120 and 130 million (125 million most likely)

03. PS5 will have a worldwide launch in November, compared to PS4 which released in Japan in February 2014. Now, i don't think this will make a huge difference, considering the current situation of the home console market, but it's still an advantage PS5 will have.

And of course, after that, the COVID boost.

For context, PS4 shipped 4.5 million in 2013, and 7.5 million in March 2014. So i expect A 56% increase the first 2 months, and 34% the first Fyscal year.

For a comparation, in January 2017, i predicted Switch to ship 15 million units the in 2017, and that prediction was only 1% off (14.86 million). Hope this prediction will be just as good (even though i wish all my predictions were like that. :P)

So what you think? too much? too low? make your own prediction.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

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If they are able to ship that much then they will. I don't expect sales in the same timeframe to be more than 7,5 mil, but I think you're right that after the PS4 being undershipped at launch they're aiming to ship a lot early on this time.



As above guy said; if SONY can ship that much than absolutely. SONY's end of March results will depend entirely on their shipping prowess



Didn't Sony already announce how many units it intends to ship by the end of its fiscal year (March 2021)?



I think PS5 will have a very strong launch year.... so maybe.
What did the PS4 do in its first fiscal year?

edit:

Ryng said:

01. Sony was not expecting the huge demand the PS4 had. They planned to ship 5 million the first Fyscal Year, and they shipped 7.5 million in the end, 50% more than expected. PS4 was sold in most markets in the world. This time, they know what the domand for a Playstation console can be in today market at launch. So they'll ship more units, and basically sell almost everything they ship just like with PS4.

Yep, this alone makes me think 10m+ is possible.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 25 September 2020

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noname2200 said:
Didn't Sony already announce how many units it intends to ship by the end of its fiscal year (March 2021)?

nope, Sony still has to make his official forecast, all the numbers we heard are productions numbers not confirmed by Sony.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

Certainly possible. The PS4 was supply constrained despite the numbers it shipped, so selling through about the same amount of units would be enough to ship 10m or close to it. 2m+ units on store shelves worldwide and in transit doesn't fall outside of normal circumstances.

Reasons why I expect sell-through of the PS5 to be similar to the PS4 through the first ~4.5 months of availability despite a trend towards bigger launches:

1. The PS5 is $100 more expensive than the PS4. Sony will limit the production numbers of the $399 PS5 to keep their initial losses under control.

2. Xbox will be more competitive in the USA this time around, so expected early gains in Europe for the PS5 over the PS4 will be offset by North America. Gains in Japan for the PS5 over the PS4 should be miniscule despite an additional three months of availability.

I expect a situation where the PS5 will do better than the PS4 early on, but ultimately not match the same level of momentum that the PS4 had when it went into its first full fiscal year. That's because this generation isn't anywhere close to as clear cut when it comes to choosing a console.

Anyway, time to write down my predicted range for PS5 shipments by March 2021: 9.0-10.0m.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

I think people are overestimating the PS5 in general.  However, the OP may be right about March 2021, because that still isn't long after launch.  PS5 launch will be successful, because every system appears successful at launch.  Even the Wii U was in short supply when it launched.  However, if we are going to talk about year end 2021, I think it will be pretty obvious by that point that PS5 is just not going to sell like PS4.  I actually voted 7m in the poll, because I know PS5 support is going to wane pretty quickly, but March 2021 may be a little too quick.  We'll just have to wait and see.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

I think people are overestimating the PS5 in general.  However, the OP may be right about March 2021, because that still isn't long after launch.  PS5 launch will be successful, because every system appears successful at launch.  Even the Wii U was in short supply when it launched.  However, if we are going to talk about year end 2021, I think it will be pretty obvious by that point that PS5 is just not going to sell like PS4.  I actually voted 7m in the poll, because I know PS5 support is going to wane pretty quickly, but March 2021 may be a little too quick.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Can you explain why ps5 support will wane?

If everything comes out the way it says, ps5 is going to have the biggest first year ever with gt7,horizon 2 AND god of war ragnarok



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

11m - 0.8m in production/shipping on march 31st 2021



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