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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many 10 million first party sellers which Switch ultimately have? List the games.


How many first party 10+ million sellers will Switch ultimately have?

15 or less (the cliff is coming!) 1 7.14%
16-20 7 50.00%
21-25 5 35.71%
26-30 0 0%
30+ (I'm gonna Tbone this!) 1 7.14%

List all the first party Switch games, including just games you think might come out at some point, you think will ultimately sell 10+ million copies.

Already hit 10 million:

1. BotW

2. MK8D

3. Splatoon 2

4. Mario Odyssey

5. Pokemon Let's Go

6. Smash Bros Ultimate

7. Super Mario Party

8. Pokemon Sword/Shield

9. Animal Crossing

Games currently out that will hit 10 million at some point:

10. Luigi's Mansion


12. Mario Maker 2

13. RFA

Future confirmed games:

14. Mario 3D All-Stars

15. Mario 3D World

16. BotW2

Future possible games not announced:

17. Zelda Collection (depends on what is in the collection and whether or not it only has 6 month release like Mario collection)

18. a brand new 2D Mario in a different style from the "New" series

19. Another Ring Fit game

20. A Wii sports type game or port (could be a Wii Sports Club deluxe or like a Wii Sports/Resort Club compilation game)

21. Pokemon remake

22. 9th gen Pokemon (not totally sure this will come out on Switch though)

23. another Mario party

24. another new 3D Mario game (after Mario 3D All-Stars and 3D World port though I'm not sure there will be a 4th 3D Mario title on Switch though)

25. one more game could be something like Nintendogs or some brand new game that goes viral

So I say Switch could have up to 25 10+ million sellers from first party games assuming they don't hold off some series for real early next gen launches like 3D Mario and Pokemon, and assuming they do obvious things like some sort of Wii Sports game, another Ring Fit game, and a Zelda Collection that is very good (like has OoT,MM,WW, and TP) and has a year to sell like if it launches in Feb for Zelda's anniversary and is given a full year on the market so that it gets a holiday season to sell.

What do you think?

Last edited by Slownenberg - on 11 September 2020

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16-20. Anything more than that is really, really tough.

Already There:
1. Zelda: BotW
2. MK8D
3. Splatoon 2
4. Super Mario Odyssey
5. Pokemon Let's Go
6. Super Smash Bros Ultimate
7. Super Mario Party
8. Pokemon Sword/Shield
9. Animal Crossing: New Horizons
Released Games That Will Hit 10 million
10. Luigi's Mansion 3
12. Super Mario Maker 2
13. Ring Fit Adventure
Future Confirmed Titles
14. Super Mario 3D All-Stars
15. Super Mario 3D World
16. Zelda: BOTW 2
Potential Titles
17. Diamond/Pearl Remake
18. 3D Mario
19. Pokemon Gen IX
20. Wii Sports Sequel or Remake/Port
21. Nintendogs Remake or Sequel

I listed 21 games because I don't think all those games I mentioned as potential releases might even happen.

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

I hope Mario Maker 2 hits 10 million, just to get the naysayers to SHUT. THE. FUCK. UP!

Link to the VGChartz Discord server:

Someday you will die somehow 

And something's gonna steal your carbon 

Right now my guess is a possible 21-25 if they're go through with their intent to give the NS a longer than usual run like the 3DS, * = already hit 10m, ** = possible future announced titles.

Pokemon S/S*
Pokemon LG*
Luigi's Mansion
Mario Maker
3D All Stars
BOTW Sequel
Pokemon Remake**
Pokemon Gen 9**
New 2D Mario**

So nobody thinks Pokemon Snap will reach 10M? what about Paper Mario?