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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3+X360 vs PS4+X1 - Predictions

         

8th gen twins will beat 7th gen

2021: Jul-Sep 1 $500.00 7.14%
 
2021: Oct-Dec 5 $1,301.00 35.71%
 
2022 2 $1,050.00 14.29%
 
2023 1 $500.00 7.14%
 
2024 onward 0 $0.00 0%
 
Never 5 $1,310.00 35.71%
 
 
Totals: 14 $4,661.00  
Enter Bet

The latest PS3+X360 (7th gen) vs PS4+X1 (8th gen) gap chart was posted by trunks today. The article calculated the 7th gen at 173.2M total combined sales, and the 8th gen at 162.2M, with an exact difference of 12.04M. With the X1 almost phased out,  PS4 already at 113M units sold, selling on average 1M units per month in 2020, the fierce market adoption of the Switch in America and Japan, and with the upcoming launch of the PS5 in November, do think the 8th gen will end up beating the 7th gen for PS and XB combined?

If yes when do you think it will happen?

FWIW, PS2+XB did about 182 million combined. (Thanks @zorg1000)

Last edited by padib - on 10 September 2020

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So Wii and Switch are ignored?



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Leynos said:
So Wii and Switch are ignored?

The number of apples feels pretty irrelevant when your goal is to compare the orange harvest between years.

Also, isn't Switch supposed to be 9th gen? smh



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Leynos said:
So Wii and Switch are ignored?

Yeah, for this exercise we're just comparing the consoles by Sony and Microsoft combined for gen 7 versus gen 8. Like Vivster said it's a specific orange to orange comparison that we can bet against each other on, given the fact that the race is so close since they seem to target the same audience, and if you look at the chart by William in the vgchartz article I linked to, you will see how closely the aligned launch curves follow each other.

Now there is only a bit of time remaining for the twins, they both have their successors launching in November, and the EoL gen 7 versus current gen 8 sales are only 12m units apart, so we don't know if they will ultimately manage to close the gap  or if so when.



Really depends if Sony and Microsoft produce more of them or not. Right now, it looks like both have switch about 100% of the production capacities to the next gen and are running out on current gen hardware. If they don't start the production again soon, then this gen will be dead in the water already when the next gen starts,



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Leynos said:
So Wii and Switch are ignored?

Switch would compete more with Wii+Wii U+Gamecube than just the Wii alone at this point since the Wii is already starting to lose ground at an increasing pace while the Switch still breaks record sales.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 08 September 2020

PS4 still has about 4-6 million units left this year whilst the other one is almost dead but can make another 2 million units.

So who knows maybe around June 2021.



It should beat it out by a little bit. PS4 should have a little over 12 million in it by itself. And X1 might do 2 million more.



PS4 + XB1 is going to win this.  PS4 is still selling well in Europe, but European sales are going to be pulling most of the weight at this point.  Also PS3 + X360 lost some people to the Wii that probably came back over to Sony/Microsoft in Generation 8.  And then there is the fact that we have 2 expensive systems launching during a recession, which will probably help PS4+XB1.



I think there's a real chance gen 8 could fall short by 1-2 million if stock for them stops being produced in large numbers soon enough. After this holiday it seems likely the One S will barely sell anymore if there's even any stock to sell by that point, and if even there was stock the Series S will be a massively better purchase, and Sony's push for a quick transition could make them produce not that many after this holiday and if that scenario happens it should fall short. I think gen 8 will be at about 166 million by the end of this year so if only 4-5 million PS4's are sold 2021 onward it'll fall short. For the actual odds of that happening though I have no idea.