Forums - Sales Discussion - Super Mario Odyssey shipped 18.06m by June 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Super Mario Odyssey shipped 18.06m by June 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 19 million 25 3.89%
 
19.0 - 19.9 million 16 2.49%
 
20.0 - 20.9 million 104 16.20%
 
21.0 - 21.9 million 77 11.99%
 
22.0 - 22.9 million 108 16.82%
 
23.0 - 23.9 million 70 10.90%
 
24.0 - 25.9 million 129 20.09%
 
26.0 - 27.9 million 29 4.52%
 
28.0 - 30.0 million 22 3.43%
 
More than 30 million 62 9.66%
 
Total:642

Super Mario Odyssey was released in fall 2017 and shipped 18.06m copies by June 30th 2020. What are your lifetime sales expectations?

Here is the game's sales progression. Quarter ending, followed by quarterly shipments/LTD sales:

December 2017 - 9.07m/9.07m
March 2018 - 1.34m/10.41m
June 2018 - 0.76m/11.17m
September 2018 - 1.00m/12.17m
December 2018 - 1.59m/13.76m
March 2019 - 0.68m/14.44m
June 2019 - 0.50m/14.94m
September 2019 - 0.44m/15.38m
December 2019 - 1.21m/16.59m
March 2020 - 0.82m/17.41m
June 2020 - 0.65m/18.06m

...

Bonus question: Which style of 3D Mario do you expect to see in the second all-new 3D Mario game on Switch? The open approach of Super Mario 64, the more linear approach of Super Mario Galaxy, or the Super Mario 3D Land style? Or do you not expect a second all-new 3D Mario game on Switch to begin with?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Around the Network

I am expecting Super Mario Oddysey 2, just The same Styles as the first part but with improved ideas. Super Mario Oddysey is the best selling 3d Mario Game, so Nintendo Will no risk on diferentes Styles on The sequel



I've been sort of going back and forth on just where SMO will land when all is said and done. It clearly has very strong legs, but not quite to the same crazy extent as BotW (or MK8DX, but that's in a liege of its own).
While it wouldn't completely shock me if it hit the 25 mil mark, atm I'm predicting 23-24 mil.



DavidValbu said:

I am expecting Super Mario Oddysey 2, just The same Styles as the first part but with improved ideas. Super Mario Oddysey is the best selling 3d Mario Game, so Nintendo Will no risk on diferentes Styles on The sequel

When? The problem I could see with them doing both a Botw2 and a SMO2 for Switch is that they won't have the true next evolution of those two series ready for the early years of Switch 2. So unless the teams are a lot smaller, due to the engineshaving been built for these two games, and they are making next gen Zelda and Mario at the same time, I can't see themselves doing this.



SMO will still sell well just not as evergreen as the others. I’ll go with 23mil, but 21mil is the floor and I don’t think it’ll get over 26mil.

Bonus Question: SM3DW2 is something I believed in since it’s a perfect fit for the NSW. Co Op is too good to pass up (and it’s my fav 3D Mario thanks to playing the game with my bro/sis



Around the Network

I put in 21 million before reading the numbers, looks like actually 23-25.

I think Nintendo will stick with the “open-world” concept for the next game, and personally I always thought that was the best spot for 3D Mario. Let 2D Mario be the action-oriented series.



24 million.


I don’t know which one I expect, but I know that linear based mario games are the best and is what stoped Mario odyssey from being a fun game to being an amazing game. So I hope linear



I think somewhere in the 23-24m range.

Is there a rumor about a 2nd new 3D Mario? I hadn't heard about one.



I went with 26 to 27.9m but I forgot to factor in a potential new 3D Mario title that would stop Odyssey's legs, so I think 24 to 25.9m is the better option.

Bonus question:  I'd love to see a new 3D World style 3D Mario next time around.

Last edited by TruckOSaurus - on 24 August 2020

Signature goes here!

I voted 26 million. I think that is optimistic and my highest prediction but I think it has a shot at it. Odyssey will be 19.50 or so this year, and I could see it doing 2 million a year or just under for the next three years, and then getting that last half million after Switch is retired.

I think there will be one more 3D Mario on Switch, though I suppose it is possible they won't do another new 3D Mario if they are bringing an 3D All-Stars type collection this Fall, plus 3D World port at some point. Cuz that would already be 3 separate 3D Mario games, and they might figure that is enough for one system, so maybe the next new one could just be a Switch 2 launch title. Whenever the next new one hits, I think it'll either be Galaxy 3 or Odyssey 2. Galaxy is much loved and fans would go crazy over one final Galaxy game, but Odyssey is the best selling 3D Mario by a long shot and I'm sure they could do even more with the cappy mechanic, so either one, or possibly a Galaxy game with cappy would be great, before moving on to something totally new.

I wouldn't mind them shifting resources to other series instead of another 3D Mario on Switch if Switch ends up with Odyssey, NSMBUD port, 3D Mario Collection, 3DWorld port, and a fresh 2D Mario game, as that's already a ton of core Mario games.