Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Anniversary Sales Battle) ACNH x PokeSmash x ACNL*2

ACNH by its 1st Anniversary will sell Retail around...

Under 7mil 0 0.00%
 
7.1mil 1 5.26%
 
7.2mil (surpass Pokesmash) 1 5.26%
 
7.3mil 1 5.26%
 
7.4mil 1 5.26%
 
7.5mil 3 15.79%
 
7.6mil 1 5.26%
 
7.7mil 0 0.00%
 
7.8mil (surpass ACNL*2) 2 10.53%
 
8mil 9 47.37%
 
Total:19


*Note Ill be adding the weekly format for this thread in the 2nd post! So keep an eye out for it.

Anyways, ACNH has be on fire WW and in Japan. There is simply no competition for it anymore outside some extreme measures. Hence this very thread. This thread will finish after the 1 Year anniversary of ACNH which will be in March 2021..... I’ll be putting ACNH against 2 comparisons, Lets explain what they are here...

1) Pokesmash: This is both the fastest selling games on the NSW outside of NH. SSBU and PokeSwSh. Mind you both these games out of in Dec/Nov so there first numbers will be towering ACNH at first glance!!!

2) ACNL*2; This one is simple, this is New Leaf, best selling game on the 3DS, but to make things fair I added the fact that  each copy sold is a double pack, hence the *2. The numbers are essentially doubled.

Other notes below...

Smash already has had its 1 Year Anniversary but Pokémon got 14 more weeks as of this thread, currently altogether it’s at 7019k with Pokémon needing to add to this number.

ACNL will finish at 7722k (twice as much as it sold). New Horizons as of this thread made is at 5445k

Pls note if ACNH surpasses any of the these especially the second, that will have meant total sales (ship+digital) will be over 10mil in japan.

Here is the final part, this is a breakdown comparison into 5 parts! Enjoy!!!

Milestones New Leaf x2 vs New Horizons

W01-10: 5020k (5020k) vs 4582k (4582k) [Gap 438k]

W11-20: 1538k (6558k) vs 756k (5337k) [Gap 1221k]

W21-30: 659k (7217k) vs 214k* so far 

W31-42: 341k (7558k)

W43-52: 164k (7722k)

Milestones Pokesmash vs New Horizons

W01-10: 6147k (6147k) vs 4582k (4582k) [Gap 1565k]

W11-20: 422k (6569k) vs 756k (5337k) [Gap 1232k]

W21-30: 196k (6765k) vs 214k* so far

W31-42: 192k (missing 2 weeks)

W43-52:

Last edited by tbone51 - on 20 August 2020

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Goal 1)

 PokeSmash - 6630k vs ACNH - 5551k (to 21W)


Gap-1079k

First 52 weeks (PokeSmash vs ACNH)

W1: 2603k - 1880k
W2: 827k - 728k
W3: 700k - 423k
W4: 456k - 293k
W5: 498k - 286k
W6: 351k - 284k
W7: 289k - 260k
W8: 234k - 195k
W9: 105k - 130k
W10: 84k - 102k
W11: 66k - 102k
W12: 50k - 98k
W13: 47k - 77k
W14: 48k - 74k
W15: 38k - 70k
W16: 45k - 53k
W17: 40k - 56k
W18: 33k - 72k
W19: 29k - 94k
W20: 26k - 57k
W21: 25k - 108k
W22: 33k - 106k
W23: 18k 
W24: 17k
W25: 16k
W26: 17k
W27: 12k
W28: 14k
W29: 14k
W30: 16k
W31: 16k
W32: 18k
W33: 18k
W34: 16k
W35: 18k
W36: 20k
W37: 26k
W38: 17k - 

W39: 19k

W40: 24k

Goal 2)

ACNL Double Pack vs ACNH

W1: 1443k - 1880k
W2: 631k - 728k
W3: 477k - 423k
W4: 239k - 293k
W5: 232k - 286k
W6: 428k - 284k
W7: 801k - 260k
W8: 329k - 195k
W9: 267k - 130k
W10: 175k - 102k
W11: 196k - 102k
W12: 166k - 98k
W13: 152k - 77k
W14: 182k - 74k
W15: 154k - 70k
W16: 156k - 53k
W17: 152k - 56k
W18: 138k - 72k
W19: 122k - 94k
W20: 121k - 57k
W21: 122k - 108k
W22: 104k - 106k
W23: 73k
W24: 70k
W25: 67k
W26: 81k
W27: 44k
W28: 31k
W29: 31k
W30: 36k
W31: 27k
W32: 27k
W33: 25k
W34: 29k
W35: 23k
W36: 26k
W37: 26k

W38: 34k

W39: 31k

W40: 31k

W41: 38k

W42: 24k

W43: 21k

W44: 18k

W45: 17k

W46: 16k

W47: 16k

W48: 16k 

W49: 16k

W50: 15k

W51: 15k

W52: 15k

Y1: 7722k

Last edited by tbone51 - on 20 August 2020

I voted 8 mil but after counting out the weeks I think it'll be 7.8 at one year.



Slownenberg said:
I voted 8 mil but after counting out the weeks I think it'll be 7.8 at one year.

I want to go up that high. If it were it be at 11mil shipped and digital in 1 year. That’s insane 



Are you accounting for digital sales anywhere in these calculations?



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Are you accounting for digital sales anywhere in these calculations?

Only retail 



tbone51 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Are you accounting for digital sales anywhere in these calculations?

Only retail 

I do think NH is going to outleg Pokesmash by its first anniversary.  NLx2 is going to be harder to beat just because a good chuck of NH is going to digital sales.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
tbone51 said:

Only retail 

I do think NH is going to outleg Pokesmash by its first anniversary.  NLx2 is going to be harder to beat just because a good chuck of NH is going to digital sales.

Hey it’s not even a loss, I did these 2 comparisons because nothing else can stand to ACNH. I called it back in April that end of June it be at 7mil and then followed up with 500k for this current quarter. Now that’s being shattered and will end up above 8mil by sept. And maybe 10mil just maybe by end of dec



I won't doubt a tbone prediction, even if it's not a BOLD one.

So 8M it is for me.



Updated, let’s see where ac goes from here