Forums - Nintendo Discussion - “Another One Again?” BOLD Prediction: Switch Going to Ship 30mil+ This Fiscal Year

No it won’t, It’ll sell

Under 25mil 4 13.33%
 
25mil 4 13.33%
 
26mil 2 6.67%
 
27mil 5 16.67%
 
28mil 5 16.67%
 
29mil 0 0.00%
 
Actually your right 30mil!!! 7 23.33%
 
Pessimistic, over 32mil!! 3 10.00%
 
Total:30



Info to know... Before getting with the subject!

Top 5 FY (Hardware)

DS09 [31.18mil]
DS08 [30.31mil]
DS10 [27.11mil]
Wii09 [25.95mil]
DS07 [23.56mil]

Notice anything??.... Bonus!!! Peak this Gen...

NSW20 (21.03mil)
PS4:18 (20.00mil)

I’ll be focusing on only Wii peak year and the 2 DS years that did 30mil+ for this topic.... Let’s A Go!!!

First off I know what your going to say..... SUPPP:pPPPPPPLLLLYYYY!!!! Yes I know this so I’ll address this first, we heard of production from 22mil earlier (10% increase) then again with 25mil. The first thing that bothers me with this figure is the fact that 5.68mil NSW were shipped in Q1 of this FY. That’s a pretty high number and though Q2 in the west seem to be smaller so far in comparison to Q1 this year (due to no stock especially in the US) japan is rising by quite a lot. More on that in a bit...

If NSW were to ship the same units every quarter for Q2-Q4 including its holiday Quarter it would be close to 23mil. Even with Q2/Q4 being down compare to Q1 there is the fact that holiday tend to be over 8mil and closer to 10mil.

I believe NSW will have a slightly down Q2 but beating its peak of 4.80mil last year (Lite launch) and since demand and no stock on store shelves I think we will see a huge boost to holiday and it’ll surpass even the monstrous DS holiday quarters. And then for Q4 Nintendo will have a spill over effect and Nintendo will catch up to demand but will need to fill in the inventory WW (especially Japan/US)

Next up NSW Q1 is 5.68mil, if you were to put every Quarter last year (Nsw FY20) and match it this year NSW will end up at 24.5mil. I think we all believe NSW can go up further than all that (or should I say no1??)

Now for the top Quarters for DS each!!! (30mil years)

DS09 Q2 6.79mil / Q3 11.89mil / Q4 5.56mil
DS08 Q2 6.37mil / Q3 11.14mil / Q4 4.68mil

NSW 2020 had Q3 with a whopping 10.41mil which isn’t far off especially DS08.

My prediction comparing it to everything said so far!!!!!

- Q1 5.68mil (This is fact, NeXt —> )

-Q2 5.50mil

Yes down QoQ and yes nowhere near DS top Q2 but... Japan making up for this one, I think this quarter japan will have the highest share since NSW cane out. WW it’s never been over 30%, I think it’ll be up from last quarter 1.15mil till this quarter 1.75mil-1.80mil). Even with 1/3rd that’s 5.25mil-5.40mil shipped and demand will not be done yet!!!

-Q3 13.50mil 

Go ahead, and mocked me for this one! This is the WTF one but let’s go hard on this one. Nintendo is stocking up, a bunch of Lites will come. OG model is healthy at this time. And it’ll be up from NSW peak Q3 and surpass both Monster years of DS. They will try to store up shelves as much as possible and demand will almost be caught up!!


-Q4 5.32mil

To end it exactly at 30mil hoping to be slightly under with this prediction but here we are. The spill over year which Nintendo will have a strong software Q4 (my guess) and will finally catch up to demand with overshipping to retailers!!!!

That’s a quick write up on my part, Japan will have a huge Q3 as well as Q4. Post your thoughts whether you agree or disagree!!!

Looking forward to your comments!!



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Hows that bold? I said just below 36 mil because thats just below 3 mil units produced per month



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As you say, it's all about supply. Will they make that many systems?

Given that they're still selling 400k plus a week in August, and must be stocking up for the holiday by now, I've gotta think they are producing a heck of a lot more Switch's than the 20 million or so that they have official forecast.

Given that last year they sold almost 11 million in the holiday quarter, I could absolutely see them selling 13+ million this holiday quarter if they have that many available. I think to hit your Q4 number though they might need a big early year release as it'll have been almost a year since AC launched. But I could see 3D World port and BotW2 or at least one of those hitting early next year, assuming of course BotW2 isn't on the docket for the holidays.

So to me it would come down to are they actually making/shipping 30 million Switches this fiscal year, and do they have a big game launch for Jan/Feb to push sales the quarter after a record breaking Christmas which will presumably meet demand for the holidays if they have 13+ million sold this Fall.



That's definitely more likely than the other thread about Switch taking the sell-through record for the calendar year (~29.6m), because this prediction drops a quarter of lower production in favor of a quarter with higher production levels, and a sell-in prediction has the benefit of overstuffed channels being an option whereas sell-through always requires actual demand.

For the calendar year sell-through prediction I've been thinking 25-28m as the low and high ends, but for the fiscal year sell-in 25-30m constitutes a realistic range, making your prediction more probable to come true. One big question mark are Nintendo's production plans for the individual SKUs, because they keep being too low for the more desired hybrid model. Retailers won't be ordering even more Lites when they are already piling up because too many consumers are waiting for the hybrid.

The other big question mark is of course the release schedule for the next seven months, because having a good first party holiday title and a solid final fiscal quarter are bound to keep the hardware sales momentum high. Although I am less concerned about this than Nintendo's production capacities and the split between hybrid and Lite numbers.

In any case, this is a bold prediction and a good one at that. Switch will eat its current gen competition (PS5 and XSX/S) for breakfast.



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Oof, its dangerous to doubt a Tbone thread and I don't think its completely impossible either, but in the crazy world where it did occur, I think the split between quarters would be different.
Even the DS never shipped over 12 mil in one quarter and they were probably better prepared for such a high volume of shipments back then, so 13,5 mil in the holiday quarter seems too far fetched for me. I think if this is to have any chance then Q2 and Q4 have to pull more weight, at least 6 mil each as crazy as that sounds.



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It's going to be close.  I'd like to know what kind of games are coming for the rest of the FY before I say "yea" or "nay".  I do think it has a very good shot at breaking 30m for the FY because they are most likely to have supply problems in Q3, but they can make that up during Q4.  For this same reason I think you are putting too much emphasis on Q3 on your Quarter by Quarter breakdown though.

If they do actually make 30m, then it would have to look more like this:

Q1, 5.68m (already happened)
Q2, 6.82m - They seriously ramp up shipments, because they are still short supplied in several areas, especially Japan.
Q3, 11.5m - Even with this amount they end up short supplied during the holidays
Q4, 6m - Restock from holidays + BOTW2 release

I know Q1 was a high amount, but I think to ship 30m Q2 will need to be even higher.  Switch has been in short supply in several places and Nintendo is ramping up production, so it is definitely possible for Q2 to beat Q1.  However if it doesn't then to me that indicates that the demand for Switch is more limited than we thought.  They need the high demand and momentum to continue into the holiday quarter.  If there is a lull in Q2, then I don't think 30m is possible.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 15 August 2020

I find it funny that I'm the only one who said anything under 30 million. This isn't meant as like a you're wrong thing, its just these type of things are a bit more controversial, how much a console can sell in x amount of time anyway. I do want the switch to hit 30 million, it is just that I have no clue whether or not it can. I think it will fall just shy cause some people who would've bought in winter bought now, but I hope that I'm wrong.



badskywalker said:
I find it funny that I'm the only one who said anything under 30 million. This isn't meant as like a you're wrong thing, its just these type of things are a bit more controversial, how much a console can sell in x amount of time anyway. I do want the switch to hit 30 million, it is just that I have no clue whether or not it can. I think it will fall just shy cause some people who would've bought in winter bought now, but I hope that I'm wrong.

It’s no big deal, I think people who posted here believe it can looking at how it’s currently selling with more facts that prove it can hit that high. It’s only a matter of what Nintendo 



It was reported a few weeks ago that Nintendo recently raised their PRODUCTION forecast for the fiscal year to 25 million. Given that units produced this year won’t necessarily ship, that would make a sell through of more 25 million unlikely.

Personally, I think it’ll come in at just below that number. That said, WITHOUT production limitations, I think 26 million would be a reasonable number: 10 million for the first half of the year, 12 million during the holidays, 4 million in the final quarter.



It could sell that much, but I don't think Nintendo would be so far off on their production forecast.