Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Switch have the greatest selling console calendar year of all time?

Will the Switch have the greatest selling console year ever?

Yes (+29M Sold) 19 38.00%
 
No (Less Than 29M Sold) 31 62.00%
 
Total:50

As of right now, the Switch is currently outpacing the former record holder the 2008 Nintendo DS, which sold a whopping 29 Million Units in 2008 alone, and in terms of Home consoles the Wii was the former record holder selling around 25M in 2008 as well. The Switch is currently on pace to beat both of them.

Here are the current stats:

DS in 2008 after 31 weeks: 12.59 mil
Swtich in 2020 after 31 weeks: 13.34 mil

As of right now, the Switch is outpacing the 2008 DS which is absolutely insane and something most people never expected coming from any video game console after the DS. AND NINTENDO STILL CANT MEET DEMAND, they thought that their effort to ramp up production for more supply would eventually make the Switch shortages stop this summer, but even Nintendo themselves underestimated the shear amount of demand there is for the Switch and does not even know when there will ever be enough supply to meet this demand in 2020. So if the Switch was more in supply chances are the total would be even higher than it is right now which is crazy. From what I remember the DS while it was selling like crazy, Nintendo was still able to meet demand as I was able to get one fairly easy in 2008 during its prime.

The Switch is currently up YoY 93% from 2019, so essentially the Switch so far is selling twice as much as 2019 which is also insane since 2019 was considered extremely successful shipping over 20M Switch's, a thing only 3 other consoles were able to accomplish (PS2,Wii,DS). Selling twice as much as 2019 Switch is just unprecedented and mind blowing. If the Switch were to keep this up for the entire year, the Switch would sell 38M units, which would kill the DS's record by 9M for most sold in a calendar year.

While it's highly unlikely the Switch will come close to selling 38M in 2020 alone, I believe the Switch has a legit chance of hitting 30M this calendar year if Nintendo could meet demand, which is a huge if.

At this point the MINIMUM the Switch will sell in 2020 has to be 25M, cause let's say for the rest of the year from here on out the Switch somehow sells 2019 numbers, the Switch would still be at 24M, which is impossible for it to happen since the Switch is up literally 100% YoY from 2019. Even if it's growth drops to a more conservative 50% YoY, the Switch would sell 31M in 2020 alone, which would beat the DS's record.

So for the Switch to beat the record-breaking DS's 2008 calendar year, it needs to surpass 29M sold for 2020. Do you think this will happen?



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It is so funny to compare this Switch forum now to when the Switch/NX rumors were coming in. When many people didn't think the NX/Switch would even hit 30M in it's LIFETIME, now it's becoming possible the Switch does those numbers in 1 YEAR!



There was even people saying after the January 2017 Presentation that the Switch would be lucky if sales were any closer to 10 million LT.



If Nintendo can ship enough Switches and ships them to the right places (Japan currently seems like a black hole that will suck up as many Switches as Nintendo can throw at them, and it also seems the console is suddenly becoming huge in some "rest of the world" countries like South Korea), then it would most likely be possible.
But if I had to make a prediction right now I'd honestly expect it to fall just a bit short, maybe 27 or 28 mil, which would ofc still be a ludicrous sales year.



Going by Nintendo's own estimations, I say no.



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I don't really care if it breaks DS record. Right now, the minimum is looking likely to be 25 million which would be a new record for this generation. I remember reading somewhere that even the f it sells the same as last year from now on tilmrhe rest of the year, that is still 31M.

Last edited by JSG87 - on 13 August 2020

You kinda need games to release. Nintendo has nothing announced the rest of the year.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

I don't think so. I doubt that Nintendo has ordered production increases big enough to reach those heights, so the more important question if demand is actually high enough for 29m+ doesn't need to be answered to begin with. But I should tackle it anyway.

The DS's price was $130 in 2008, so price was of no concern to potential customers. Switch, on the other hand, still costs so much that its price, whether that is the hybrid SKU or the cheaper Lite, is still taken into consideration. Additionally, Nintendo runs very much a longterm strategy with Switch, so they'll prioritize profitability over unit sales, therefore there's no reason to expect any price cuts this year.

Secondly, the YTD comparison you posted in the OP compares plain normal DS sales to inflated Switch sales, because we can't sit here and pretend that COVID-19 lockdowns had no influence. While the DS had consistent momentum throughout 2008, Switch is now in the phase where its sales will have to make do without a corona boost. To add to that, Nintendo's first party lineup for Switch will be low-key until the holiday title arrives, so within the next three months it should become more obvious that Switch won't challenge the DS's peak anymore.

In order to beat the DS's 2008, Europe would need to see a sudden strong uptick in Switch demand. Sales in the region had been okay for three years before Animal Crossing and COVID-19 upgraded them to good, but to beat the DS, they will need to be great



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

If production is too low as rol says, then no. But I also expect it to be sold out at Christmas if Nintendo actually has any compelling software...and assuming the pandemic doesn’t magically go away.



RolStoppable said:
I don't think so. I doubt that Nintendo has ordered production increases big enough to reach those heights, so the more important question if demand is actually high enough for 29m+ doesn't need to be answered to begin with. But I should tackle it anyway.

The DS's price was $130 in 2008, so price was of no concern to potential customers. Switch, on the other hand, still costs so much that its price, whether that is the hybrid SKU or the cheaper Lite, is still taken into consideration. Additionally, Nintendo runs very much a longterm strategy with Switch, so they'll prioritize profitability over unit sales, therefore there's no reason to expect any price cuts this year.

Secondly, the YTD comparison you posted in the OP compares plain normal DS sales to inflated Switch sales, because we can't sit here and pretend that COVID-19 lockdowns had no influence. While the DS had consistent momentum throughout 2008, Switch is now in the phase where its sales will have to make do without a corona boost. To add to that, Nintendo's first party lineup for Switch will be low-key until the holiday title arrives, so within the next three months it should become more obvious that Switch won't challenge the DS's peak anymore.

In order to beat the DS's 2008, Europe would need to see a sudden strong uptick in Switch demand. Sales in the region had been okay for three years before Animal Crossing and COVID-19 upgraded them to good, but to beat the DS, they will need to be great

Do you have a validated research stating that Switch sales skyrocketed this year because of COVID-19? This pandemic resulted to global economic crisis that led to mass lay-off of workers and unemployment. Game consoles are luxuries and the affected people here particularly those who are about to buy a console would rather buy necessities such as foods and give priority to monthly bills. Can't we just admit that Switch is a gaming phenomenon that happens once in a blue moon?