Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Extra BOLD + Not BOLD Prediction! NSW Will Surpass 3DS/DS Lifetime (Japan)

NSW will be....

Under 3DS lifetime 1 3.33%
 
Over 3DS but nowhere near DS 8 26.67%
 
Close to DS (30mil+) 16 53.33%
 
Become #1 (Surpass DS) 5 16.67%
 
Boy Bye!! 0 0.00%
 
Total:30

So I’m 100% sure in Surpassing the 3DS, The not Bold prediction unless you believe in steep cliffs. 30mil I’m 50/50 right now. Got to see more next year! As for DS I’m about..... 1% but it wouldn’t be extra bold so let’s a go!!!

Prediction: NSW to become Number 1 in japan, post your prediction during a Calendar Year breakdown or simply comment!!!

Anyways let’s begin.....




Goal 1: Surpass 3DS

Goal 2: Surpass 30mil

Goal 3: Surpass DS

*****>>>>>>>Goal 1<<<<<<<<*****

3DS vs NSW (Yearly Sell thru Fam)

Y1: 4.136mil <><> 3.407mil
Y2: 5.627mil <><> 3.482mil
Y3: 4.932mil <><> 4.494mil

14.695mil vs 11.383mil (Gap 3.312mil)

Y4: 3.153mil <><> 2.929mil
Y5: 2.190mi
Y6: 1.874mi
Y7: 1.827mi
Y8: 566k
Y9: 191k

Lifetime: 24.497mil vs 14.199mil (Gap 10.30mil)



Updating weekly

Q3 3DS vs NSW 

W27: 27.5k / 52.2k [Gap 1698k]
W28: 57.0k / 96.9k [1658k]
W29: 41.5k / 113.2k [1587k]
W30: 42.5k /
W31: 41.2k / 
W32: 41.9k / 
W33: 50.2k /
W34: 33.2k / 
W35: 34.7k / 
W36: 27.9k / 
W37: 44.9k /
W38: 47.4k /
W39: 32.8k / 
Tot: 537k / 262.3k

(Below) > Will Update these starting next Year < (Below)

Goal 2: Surpass 30mil

Coming Later!!

Goal 3: DS

 

2004: 1.496mil (holiday launch)
2005: 4.151mil
2006: 8.359mil
2007: 7.167mil

DS 21.173mil (adding Y0 since it’s Q4 only)


2008: 3.946.585 
2009: 4.159.445 
2010: 2.872.621 
2011: 657.815 
2012: 68.973 

Last edited by tbone51 - on 24 July 2020

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Tbone, I love your predictions and the dedication you have on the BOLD part.

You should start you threads with an official name, like Tbone’s Extra Bold Series and copyright it right away !

Not sure about the DS, maybe, but 3DS is definitely beatable.



It'll easily pass 3DS. 30 million maaaaaaybe. Passing DS no way. I'd bet on 28/29 million.



Slownenberg said:
It'll easily pass 3DS. 30 million maaaaaaybe. Passing DS no way. I'd bet on 28/29 million.

Safe bet seems to be 27mil-28mil as of now. I’m hoping for string 4-5mil years each for the next few years 



Since it's you, I'm sure Switch will pass the DS now. I was on the fence before but a BOLD tbone prediction always settles it.



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If they go through with giving it a long life like they've said I think it will hit 30m.



The Switch clearly has a very different sales curve from the 3DS so I think it'll blow right past it despite still being behind launch aligned.
I expect it to land just around the 30 mil mark when all is said and done. Those 3 extra mil to outdo the 3DS aren't exactly impossible, especially if the Switch's lifespan ended up being 8 years+, but at the moment my prediction is 30 mil.



UnderwaterFunktown said:
The Switch clearly has a very different sales curve from the 3DS so I think it'll blow right past it despite still being behind launch aligned.
I expect it to land just around the 30 mil mark when all is said and done. Those 3 extra mil to outdo the 3DS aren't exactly impossible, especially if the Switch's lifespan ended up being 8 years+, but at the moment my prediction is 30 mil.

The gap is closing, was over 3.3mil end of dec and is now under 1.7mil with end of the year possibly making the gap somewhere around 500k difference only quarter aligned



Beating 3DS would already be an exceptional feat, because that system’s the #3 of all time there. It could happen, DS itself though, I don’t think so.



tbone51 said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:
The Switch clearly has a very different sales curve from the 3DS so I think it'll blow right past it despite still being behind launch aligned.
I expect it to land just around the 30 mil mark when all is said and done. Those 3 extra mil to outdo the 3DS aren't exactly impossible, especially if the Switch's lifespan ended up being 8 years+, but at the moment my prediction is 30 mil.

The gap is closing, was over 3.3mil end of dec and is now under 1.7mil with end of the year possibly making the gap somewhere around 500k difference only quarter aligned

Very true. I'm expecting something similair by january when both the Switch and 3DS have had their holiday months launch aligned. And the Switch will probably take the lead permanently not too long after.