The Xbox One fell below Microsoft's expectations in sales. 50 million lifetime is a lock at this point, but that's much less than the Xbox 360. But my question is how would the 8th and 9th gen of gaming be affected if Xbox One didn't reverse any of its maligned policies? The console would launch with mandatory DRM, always online, forced Kinect, etc.
Would the Xbox One fail as hard as the Wii U in this situation? Possibly. The Xbox One would be lucky to sell as much as the original Xbox. Consumers would buy other consoles instead, and I even think the Wii U would be affected enough to sell at least 15 million in its lifetime (still would be a failure).
There's almost no situation where we would get an Xbox One X. The demand for the Xbox One in general would not be high enough. I say that we would already get the Xbox Series X in 2018, albeit with some weaker specs than in reality. I think Sony would release the PS5 in 2019 instead of 2020, not wanting to be undercut by Microsoft. The Switch still launches in March 2017, and I think that would fully end the debate if it's 8th or 9th gen. I mean with Microsoft and Sony having both their products out in the next few years, Switch would clearly be 9th gen.
Alternatively, could this be enough to get Microsoft out of the hardware business for good? Another possibility.
Microsoft certainly made the right call to reverse some policies of the Xbox One, and to add 4K Blu-ray and backwards compatibility later on.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)
PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million
PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima