Forums - Nintendo Discussion - WORSE Case Scenario: Switch is Still Going to Past 110mil, So why you think Under 130mil?

NSW will sell roughly

100mil 9 18.00%
 
110mil 10 20.00%
 
120mil 8 16.00%
 
130mil 9 18.00%
 
140mil 6 12.00%
 
150mil 5 10.00%
 
160mil 3 6.00%
 
Total:50

...


Keep in mind PS4 has a huge advantage in FY1, as it released in Nov (5months) and NSW released in March (1month).

Im using this to prove a point to those that think NSW will have sharp declines in the future and those who think NSW won’t surpass 110mil or hell even 100mil.

Anyways to begin, NSW First 3 years (4FY) is extremely strong and one of the fastest selling hardware period. Even with the odds, peaking most likely in its 4th year (FY5) the question on everyone’s mind is how much the system will drop off/decline in the coming years. Ps4 is the best thing for comparison as wii literally decline so hard at the end and the DS is the DS.

lets begin....

>>> FACT <<<

PS4 / NSW 

FY1 7.50mil / 2.74mil
FY2 14.80mil / 15.05mil
FY3 17.70mil / 16.95mil
FY4 20.00mil / 21.03mil

Tot: 60mil vs 55.77mil

PS4 is up but only counting By FY align, quarter align NSW is up slightly despite Holiday advantage ps4 got.

Next Up PS4 has a very strong FY5 with a decline of only 5%. Strong FY6/FY7 with another roughly 5% and 20% declines YoY respectively.

FY5 19.00mil 
FY6 17.80mil 
FY7 13.60mil

FY8 should be somewhere between 7mil-10mil but that’s yet to be seen.

NoW back to the main topic at hand, The NSW!!

nsw is pulling DS/Wii numbers, the system is currently peaking with FY5 set to do estimate of between 23mil-27mil. But for the example let’s go with 24mil

Worse case scenario imo is hard declines, no aggressive push from Nintendo, next gen system affects NSW, and just overall lack luster Software output (lol). Let’s see where this goes...

FY5 24.00mil (79.77mil)

30% YoY drop

FY6 16.80mil (96.57mil)

40% YoY drop

FY7 10.00mil (106.57mil) *Successor comes out

50% YoY drop

FY8 5.00mil (111.50mil) 

again how the hell is NSW going To do under 110mil? Pls help me understand this!!!

post your crazy thoughts!



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Right now, the 100m marks seems a safe bet. Anything above that will depend on whatever Nintendo's able to develop and the amount of 3rd party willing to do big projects on the console after next gen launches.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Darwinianevolution said:
Right now, the 100m marks seems a safe bet. Anything above that will depend on whatever Nintendo's able to develop and the amount of 3rd party willing to do big projects on the console after next gen launches.

Safe bet is not even correct unless NSW just literally dies off. I’ll give you an even worse scenario, if NSW does 22mil and peaks then it drops every year by 45%

FY1 2.74mil
FY2 15.05mil
FY3 16.95mil
FY4 21.03mil

FY5 22.00mil

FY6 12.10mil

FY7 6.05mil

FY8 3.00mil

That would be 100mil, I mean anyone that believes 100mil is literally not looking close enough xD



tbone51 said:
Darwinianevolution said:
Right now, the 100m marks seems a safe bet. Anything above that will depend on whatever Nintendo's able to develop and the amount of 3rd party willing to do big projects on the console after next gen launches.

Safe bet is not even correct unless NSW just literally dies off. I’ll give you an even worse scenario, if NSW does 22mil and peaks then it drops every year by 45%

FY1 2.74mil
FY2 15.05mil
FY3 16.95mil
FY4 21.03mil

FY5 22.00mil

FY6 12.10mil

FY7 6.05mil

FY8 3.00mil

That would be 100mil, I mean anyone that believes 100mil is literally not looking close enough xD

To be fair, I tried to err on the side of caution. It will sell a lot of consoles as it is, and we still don't have a "home console only" Switch or whatever they can add to the hardware.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

I've only recently come around to thinking it will hit 110 million. There's a lot of reasons that it could not hit more than that. Lack of price cuts, lack of new software from Nintendo, production delays/complications, or somehow overall decrease in consumer interest. The lack of price cuts hasn't been a problem on Switch yet. But if we're going into 2022 or 2023 with Switch still at $300 and Switch Lite at $200, I think there will be a problem.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

PS4: 130 mil (was 100 million) Xbox One: 55 mil (was 50 mil) Switch: 110 million (was 73, then 96 million)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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Wman1996 said:
I've only recently come around to thinking it will hit 110 million. There's a lot of reasons that it could not hit more than that. Lack of price cuts, lack of new software from Nintendo, production delays/complications, or somehow overall decrease in consumer interest. The lack of price cuts hasn't been a problem on Switch yet. But if we're going into 2022 or 2023 with Switch still at $300 and Switch Lite at $200, I think there will be a problem.

I don't see that happening, at all.  The two variables for me are software support and current economic climate.  Nintendo seems to recognize their missteps with the Wii and having to produce games for two very different platforms (handheld/console) so they're likely to do their best to continue supporting this system for quite a while.  They're even saying as much right now.  As far as the economic situation, it seems to me that the videogame market is mostly recession proof.  The question I have is whether it will be depression proof, and that's something that certainly the US hasn't had to deal with for almost 100 years.  Likely, though, some sort of stimulus package will ensure that people have a few dollars in their pockets no matter what, and consoles have always provided some of the best bang for your entertainment buck.  And escapism may be our only refuge in the coming years.

But as far as price cuts, there's so much meat on the bone with the Switch that at some point in time (when sales falter) dropping $50 or adding in a brand new Zelda or Mario bundle will be a cinch.  The $100 price cut will be an amazing boom for the system and could see a lot of families double or triple dipping on the system to make sure every kid (and parent) in their household has one.  This wasn't something that was very common with the Wii, and approaches the more personal nature of the DS.  

I'm terrible at these long term predictions, but I can certainly see the Switch selling 120 million...and the OP is right to shoot for 130 million.  



How many of these threads do we need?
This is like the 3rd of its kinde in like a week or something...



Guys how many topics are we gonna make over this lol.



JRPGfan said:
How many of these threads do we need?
This is like the 3rd of its kinde in like a week or something...

It's a dry, quiet time for Nintendo game announcements at the moment.  Not sure what you want posted instead.  And there are plenty of themes and ideas getting multiple threads right now across all platforms.  It's just the moment we're in.  But feel free to chime in on the discussion since you stopped by.



super_etecoon said:
JRPGfan said:
How many of these threads do we need?
This is like the 3rd of its kinde in like a week or something...

It's a dry, quiet time for Nintendo game announcements at the moment.  Not sure what you want posted instead.  And there are plenty of themes and ideas getting multiple threads right now across all platforms.  It's just the moment we're in.  But feel free to chime in on the discussion since you stopped by.

Last thread of this type, I said I believe Switch will get replaced by a Switch 2,0 within 2-3 years.
And that it would thus not outsell the PS4... doing less than 130m or so, which I suspect the PS4 will end up at.
It was a thread like "will the Switch outsell the PS4", and apparently I was like the only person there actually makeing arugment for it, everyone else just said more or less "yes" or "no".

I pointed out that Nintendo systems in generally, have a better showing first half of their life cycle, and usually drop faster than other consoles towards the end. Also that other nintendo handhelds systems that sold well, were cheaper, and had people collect multiple versions of same models (or newer models), as a collection item. Something unlikely with the switch. Pointing out that something like the DS, each parent would likely buy each kid their own model, while the Switch would be more likely to be a shared unit (hooked up to a tv, 1 joycon for each kid) type of deal.

Then got the replies like "nah, reasons, 150m+ is happending believe it".

This thread actually has a option to vote for 160m.
I just dont see that happending lol.

I dont feel like doing a repeat of that other thread (*edit: but did explain again, since you pressured me into it),
so... yeah feel free to discuss why everyone believes its gonna end up beating the DS.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 16 July 2020