This thread's poll is only about Mario Kart 8 Deluxe's sales, so the Wii U version of Mario Kart 8 is not included in the figures. If you want to predict a total for both versions combined, you have no choice but to post in this thread.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe shipped 24.77m units by March 31st 2020. What are your lifetime sales expectations?

Here is its shipment progression. Current quarter followed by LTD.

June 2017: 3.54m/3.54m
September 2017: 0.88m/4.42m
December 2017: 2.91m/7.33m
March 2018: 1.89m/9.22m
June 2018: 1.13m/10.35m
September 2018: 1.36m/11.71m
December 2018: 3.31m/15.02m
March 2019: 1.67m/16.69m
June 2019: 1.20m/17.89m
September 2019: 1.12m/19.01m
December 2019: 3.95m/22.96m
March 2020: 1.81m/24.77m

...

Bonus question: A common opinion is that Nintendo won't release Mario Kart 9 for Switch because Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is selling well enough to last the console's entire life. However, the release of a new game would be talked about a lot and therefore benefit Switch hardware sales in the long run without a doubt, and the game could eventually release as an early Switch successor game as Deluxe version with all DLC included and perhaps a few new features added, because that's already a proven strategy. In short, which side are you on: Do you expect to see Mario Kart 9 on Switch or not?

A couple of years ago I put Mario Kart 8 D in the 40m-50m range.  Now that I have to narrow my guess, I'll put it at the high end of 47.5m - 50m.

Bonus: I don't know if they will release Mario Kart 9 or not.  If I have to bet, I'd bet against it.  I think it is wiser for them to keep developing new games or at least sequels to franchises we don't have yet.  However, I understand why they might just release MK9 anyway.  As I said, I'd bet against it, but I wouldn't blame them if they had a MK9 release on the Switch.

I'm going on the lower end with 32.5 - 34.9 million, because...

Bonus: It seems insane to think they won't release a new Mario Kart for possibly 10+ years, depending on when Switch's successor launches. People need to remember it's already been 6 years since it released on Wii U, and outside of fixing battle mode which was practically an unfinished project, they haven't added any new maps since the last DLC pack for Wii U.

There's enough time to launch MK9 for Switch in 2021/2022, have that fuel sales until the Switch's successor in 2024/2025, and still have the next Mario Kart ready for that system possibly year two or three. Rather than the stale approach of launching a system with a new Mario Kart (having to hold it back for years and avoiding all those potential sales on Switch, plus the extra boost for Switch), they'll actually try something like maybe a reboot of F-Zero in year one, with a new Mario Kart a couple years later.

If MK8 was going the distance, I have to believe we would've gotten some new DLC by now.

It’ll hit over 45mil, a think MK9 is coming to NSW

I went for 42.5 to 45mil
I really think MK9 won't happen on switch. Or maybe as a cross-gen with switch's successor like Twilight Princess and BOTW did.
I mean, it wouldn't be clever to release it on switch when MK8D is currently the best selling game of the system, it still sells around 4mil on the 3rd quarter and around 7-8mil per year. It still moves a lot of hardware and has a crazy attach rate.

IMO launching the next gen system along with MK9 would be the smartest move and a guarantee to sell tons of systems at launch.

I'd say around 45M

Still remember when everybody said the MK8 couldn't possibly catch up to MKWii even with the Wii U numbers added on top...

I honestly think 50 mil+ is achievable. If we look at shipments so far:

2017: 7,33 mil (launched in april)
2018: 7,69 mil
2019 7,94 mil

Shipments have been INCREASING rather than decreasing and judging by Q1 of this year and the switch in general selling like nuts that'll probably continue for this year as well. Obviously that trend can't last forever, but that would still put it at 31 mil+ by the end of this year with the Switch probably only being around halfway in it's lifecycle. If it does ship 8 mil this year, 19 mil over the rest of the Switch's life seems quite possible to me.

If MK9 launches on Switch this will obviously be thrown off though, but to answer the bonus question I don't expect that.

I went with a bit under 40M sold, though it might scratch it at the end of the Switch lifetime. If it follows MKWii trend, it'll sell even after the Switch has been replaced 3 or 4 years down the line haha.

As for the bonus question, it is simple. If MK9 was to be released on Switch, they would have done so already. It's just not the kind of title you launch at the end of the lifecycle of a popular console. A game that could easily assure the success of the next console early on.

44.7 Million on the dot.


MK9 will not be on Switch, it will launch on Switch 2 in Q1 2024.

42.5-44.9 seems reasonable unless we get Mario Kart 9 soon. For the love of god give us some new dlc courses if we are not getting 9! I've been playing the same courses since May 2014 and need at least 16 new courses!