Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS5 and Xbox Series X combined will sell less than 120M.

You won't find me making predictions very often, but here it is. My first sales prediction thread.

I just got a bad vibe coming from these two. Both of these consoles I think look quite unappealing for the general consumer and are waaay too big. The Xbox One had these issues to an extent, but not this bad - and it already was mostly a failure outside the US. Furthermore, it feels like more and more games are coming to PC, with a lot of PS4 exclusives getting ported over to the PC at some point, and Xbox basically giving up on the idea of exclusivity as a whole. Sure, Sony will ensure their games take a while before the ports happen, but I think many people are gonna decide to skip consoles if they know they can get their games on PC later - especially since most people don't buy consoles early to begin with.

Consoles are getting to a point now where they're not even trying to hide the fact that they're just glorified PCs anymore. Their designs look way too much like what you'd find on gaming PC stores, almost like they're trying to appeal to that market more than console gamers, and even the size of the things isn't too much smaller than some desktops out there. But of course, the PC audience isn't exactly there for the taking.

Then there's the issue of pricing. We don't really have official numbers on these, but I think most people expect these consoles to ship at $500 at launch, which is... pretty steep. I think consoles need to have at least some casual appeal in order to be a success, but between the design, size, price, and lack of exclusivity, I don't see where the general audience interest will pick up. Besides, I get the feeling that nowadays most people don't care about crazy graphics anyway.

If I gotta put it in numbers, let's see...

35 million lifetime Xbox Series X
80 million lifetime PS5

Now I just gotta get ready for some crow.



Around the Network

You may wish to preheat the oven.


I'd wait on both pricing and lockhart before this prediction. What if PS5 launches at $449 and $399 for discless? $299 lockhart?

Consoles also.... typically have their best years after a price drop or two.



That’s BOLD, maybe if both consoles are close to $600 from the start. You got at least Xbox on your side since they don’t seem to care as much as before for console sales but instead are banking on subs/game pass/etc.

I’m going to say for a premature prediction both under 140mil for now



mZuzek said:

Consoles are getting to a point now where they're not even trying to hide the fact that they're just glorified PCs anymore.

Not glorified, but dumbed down PCs. 'Glorified' is a term you use for something superior, i.e. the PS5 launch title Spider-Man: Miles Morales is glorified DLC because it goes beyond typical DLC. The PS5 and XSX, however, are much more limited than PCs.

As for your prediction, I don't see it. The various console markets of the world have their own dynamics, so if we go over them briefly, we get this:

1. Japan will see continued decline for PS+Xbox consoles, because there's no population growth and the demographics are getting older while the game industry does not want to adapt to this changing market.

2. North America, the western half of Europe and Australia will remain about flat because the populations continue to grow due to immigration. There will still be plenty of kids, so older gamers switching to the PC because of increased options will be offset by the next wave of kids getting a PS or Xbox.

3. The eastern half of Europe and the rest of the world continue to present growth opportunities due to raising wealth of the common person.

Beyond that, the game industry will continue to want PS and Xbox to succeed because the closed ecosystems of consoles put gamers in a virtual no-choice situation, unlike the PC. If it's necessary to give the PC the short end of the stick, then that's what the game industry will do to accomplish their goals. Therefore potentially high launch prices of new consoles will merely be an obstacle in the short term, because eventually lower hardware prices and continued preferential treatment for PS and Xbox consoles by major third party publishers will steer the market towards the direction that it is supposed to go in.

Lastly, the casual appeal of PS and Xbox consoles is that they aren't as complicated as PCs, so that is covered.

In the sum you are best off to expect continued stagnation of the global market size of PS+Xbox combined, because the declines in some parts of the world are going to be offset by increases in other parts of the world.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
mZuzek said:

Consoles are getting to a point now where they're not even trying to hide the fact that they're just glorified PCs anymore.

Not glorified, but dumbed down PCs. 'Glorified' is a term you use for something superior, i.e. the PS5 launch title Spider-Man: Miles Morales is glorified DLC because it goes beyond typical DLC. The PS5 and XSX, however, are much more limited than PCs.

'Glorified' is a term I use for something that has a fancier name. I don't disagree about them being dumbed down PCs.



Around the Network

If that happends, I bet you that playstation 6 goes the super super cheap route.
Which means the next gen (after PS5) will be a small upgrade at best, super focused on price.



What Rol said. It's nice to think about a declining console market, but we're probably still at least a generation away from living that dream.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Consoles will never disappear. U want to know why? To get an equivalent pc with the same specs as the next gen consoles that can do Ray tracing, native 4k, 60fps or 120fps, it would cost u at least 3 to 4 xbox series x or ps5. Not everyone has that kind of money. Rtx 2080 in nz cost at least 1.5k nzd That's just gpu. Xbox series x wil probably cost 700 to 800 nzd.



100 million PS5 and 20 million xbox



mZuzek said:

You won't find me making predictions very often, but here it is. My first sales prediction thread.

I just got a bad vibe coming from these two. Both of these consoles I think look quite unappealing for the general consumer and are waaay too big. The Xbox One had these issues to an extent, but not this bad - and it already was mostly a failure outside the US. Furthermore, it feels like more and more games are coming to PC, with a lot of PS4 exclusives getting ported over to the PC at some point, and Xbox basically giving up on the idea of exclusivity as a whole. Sure, Sony will ensure their games take a while before the ports happen, but I think many people are gonna decide to skip consoles if they know they can get their games on PC later - especially since most people don't buy consoles early to begin with.

Consoles are getting to a point now where they're not even trying to hide the fact that they're just glorified PCs anymore. Their designs look way too much like what you'd find on gaming PC stores, almost like they're trying to appeal to that market more than console gamers, and even the size of the things isn't too much smaller than some desktops out there. But of course, the PC audience isn't exactly there for the taking.

Then there's the issue of pricing. We don't really have official numbers on these, but I think most people expect these consoles to ship at $500 at launch, which is... pretty steep. I think consoles need to have at least some casual appeal in order to be a success, but between the design, size, price, and lack of exclusivity, I don't see where the general audience interest will pick up. Besides, I get the feeling that nowadays most people don't care about crazy graphics anyway.

If I gotta put it in numbers, let's see...

35 million lifetime Xbox Series X
80 million lifetime PS5

Now I just gotta get ready for some crow.

I gotta disagree with the 80 million figure for PS5 though cannot speculate on the XB5 sales right now. No Playstation console has ever sold this low, not even the PS3 under fierce competition from X360 and the shadow of the Juggernaut WII. Heck I don't even know how it will compare to the PS4 at this stage as there are too many unknowns but I am pretty sure that it will sell more than PS3, which was released 13 years ago for $500. Even if the PS5 is released for the same price now, it will feel much cheaper due to the increases in inflation and nominal increase.

However, my gut feeling says that they will struggle to sell as much as the combined sales of PS4 and XB1 due to various reasons such as,

a) High nominal price
b) Diminishing returns (graphically the gap between this and next-gen is much smaller)
c) Global economic crisis
d) Japanese console regression
e) Competition from mobile, Switch and PCs
etc...

So, while the combined sales from PS5 and XBSX is likely to be less than PS4 and XB1, PS5 is unlikely to sell less than PS3. XBSX will definitely sell more than og Xbox but less than half of PS5.  It also depends on the time frame. So in 7 years...

PS5 will sell between 85 and 120 million
XBSX will sell between 30 and 60 million

I know those are very rough and preliminary estimates according to my feeling, so to speak. :) But check my prediction history, they almost always come true!



Xbox One X (Scorpio) Prospects

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 15-25 % vs PS4 : 75-85%
N. America => XB1 :  35-45% vs PS4 : 55-65%
Global     => XB1 :  24-33% vs PS4 : 67-76%