yeah, let’s be real here... NSW isn’t the same old console like those relics in the past. It’s Nintendo’s gold mine, it’s the first unified console, it’s doing gangbusters, it’s awesome!
Now more on a serious note! I’ll point out on why it’s not coming out before 2024. I’m still going with a spring 2025 and your going to have to argue against why you think it’ll come out in 2023 or hell 2022. (2024 I’ll give you a pass)
-NSW is selling and not slowing down: people tend to say that this is the peak year and though that may be true, decline won’t rapidly go down over the next year or 2. More on that soon!!!
-NSW has a ton of software that still hasn’t come out: Yes The biggest games are now on the system, these are Zelda / 3D Mario / Splatoon / Mario Kart / Animal Crossing / Super Smash / Pokemon (new gen). So no more system sellers? Of course not. There are a ton of franchises missing, a sequels that can boost hw.
-NSW hasn’t got a price cut yet, still can have multiple revisions. It’s peaking in its 4th calendar year (5th FY) and the lite came out sure but guess what is the model people are still flocking too? The OG model despite being $300 be $200 and that’s very very very telling.
-Competition: X1/PS4 and soon to be XSX/PS5... this is honestly the first time that they aren’t directly affecting each other but can coexist very well.
-FY5 (2020) is peaking, with weakest year software output at least to date and games could be delayed basically prolonging NSW life imo. I mean a spill effect can happen between the years 2021-2022
-Competition: oh wait I talked about this.... but forgot to mention that next gen boxes will be much more expensive and that might actually help in the Long run especially in 2021-2022 (look at japan especially) which will make NSW a more attractive console especially with the library
-Evergreens: or should I say 4EVERGREENs because this is what the system is about. As soon as someone buys the system the library for 1st party output is so strong that it continues to ride the momentum wave. Look what’s going on with AC despite being released 3months ago.
-Bonus: third party is excellent for what Nintendo could even ask for. Yes they don’t have all the AAA games but so what? It’s an indie machine and has a bunch of good support for extra gaming than being solely a Nintendo machine.
Last let’s look at sales. Peak year right? Let’s just go with 22mil for this FY and have a major decline and go with 30% each year. You tell me if you still believe a 2022 or 2023 is likely! Prove me wrong!!!
FY1 2.74mil (launch)
FY5 22.00mil (77mil LTD)
FY6 15.40mil -30% YoY
FY7 10.80mil -30% YoY
FY8 7.60mil -30% YoY
This is a big decline but even this FY8 end in 2024 spring
Here is 3DS FY vs Wii FY
FY1 3.61mil / 5.84mil
FY2 13.53mil / 18.61mil
FY3 13.95mil / 25.95mil
FY4 12.24mil / 20.53mil
FY5 8.73mil / 15.08mil
FY6 6.79mil / 9.84mil
FY7 7.27mil / Death
Does this look like switch to you?
My prediction and better estimate with FY being higher and a small decline in 2022 FY.
FY1 2.74mil (launch)
FY5 23.50mil (stock almost on store shelves)
FY6 19.00mil -19%YoY (new model/more aggressive deals)
FY7 14.25mil -25%YoY
FY8 10.50mil -25%YoY
FY9 7.50mil -30%YoYLast edited by tbone51 - on 22 June 2020