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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch version of Breath of the Wild shipped 17.41m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?


The Switch version of Breath of the Wild shipped 17.41m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 20 million 97 11.10%
20.0 - 22.4 million 283 32.38%
22.5 - 24.9 million 203 23.23%
25.0 - 27.4 million 142 16.25%
27.5 - 29.9 million 42 4.81%
30.0 - 32.4 million 46 5.26%
32.5 - 34. 9 million 8 0.92%
35.0 - 37.4 million 6 0.69%
37.5 - 40.0 million 5 0.57%
More than 40 million 42 4.81%

Important note if you can't tell for sure from the thread title alone: This poll concerns only the Switch version of The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, so if you want to make a prediction for the Switch and Wii U versions combined (BotW sold ~2m on the Wii U), you'll have no choice but to post in this thread.

Here's the shipment progression of the Switch version over time, quarterly shipments followed by LTD shipments:

March 2017: 2.76m/2.76m
June 2017: 1.16m/3.92m
September 2017: 0.78m/4.70m
December 2017: 2.00m/6.70m
March 2018: 1.78m/8.48m
June 2018: 0.84m/9.32m
September 2018: 0.96m/10.28m
December 2018: 1.40m/11.68m
March 2019: 1.09m/12.77m
June 2019: 0.84m/13.61m
September 2019: 0.93m/14.54m
December 2019: 1.80m/16.34m
March 2020: 1.07m/17.41m

What are your lifetime sales expectations for Switch's biggest launch title?


Bonus question: The home console line of Zelda games went through ups and downs most recently. After The Wind Waker disappointed in sales, Nintendo corrected the course with an Ocarina of Time inspired Twilight Princess. Following that, Nintendo went back to do as they please and tried to merge the styles of The Wind Waker and Twilight Princes in order to create another sales disappointment with Skyward Sword. This is how we got to Breath of the Wild which went even further back than Ocarina of Time for its inspiration, namely the original The Legend of Zelda on the NES. Nintendo even built an early prototype of Breath of the Wild in an 8-bit engine. Long introduction done, now for the question:

What do you expect that Nintendo will do with Breath of the Wild 2? Are they going to stay course and build on their latest foundation, are they going to revert to do what they want regardless of market expectations, or are they going to strike a balance where they don't undo the latest progress?

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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I expect it to just barely fall short of 30, so around 29 mil is what i'll go with.

Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

Went with 25 - 27.4

And I feel confident BOTW and BOTW 2 will be similar to an Ocarina Of Time and Majora's Mask type of scenario.

- "If you have the heart of a true winner, you can always get more pissed off than some other asshole."

30m - 32.5m  Zelda is going to keep on selling.  There is a certain percentage of people who will continue to buy Switch and get Zelda as one of their first 3 games or so.  My main fear is that I may be lowballing even with this estimate.

Bonus: I think they will make the sequel try to look like the original, but it will be a game more like what the devs want to make.  However it will still be built on the same awesome physics engine as BotW.  So the game will probably still be fun, but not quite as good as BotW.

I think BOTW2 will cut off legs of this game. I go for just short of 25 mill.


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25 million


Can’t back down from my bold prediction

35mil including wiiu, 33mil for BotW on nsw

25m is my guess.

If Botw 2 allows you to bring the same character, armor, weapons, hearts from your Botw 1 character then that will help the original games sales. If it forces us to start from scratch again, then 2 will hurt the originals sales.

Just below 30m. Sequel will cut into it's legs, but not that much.

Bonus: Breath of the Wild is the most successful games in the series by a mile. Arguably the greatest game ever. Even Nintendo aren't crazy enough to mess with that formula too much. From the trailer I'm guessing there might be more focus on narrative, so maybe the world and progression will be less free and open. But overall I'm still expecting more of the same with improvements.