Another interesting one to look back on. When we ran the poll in mid 2018 these were the results - https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237004
45-50 million rnage won the poll, with 51-55 coming in second. Once again the community was very pessimistic.
I went with the 51-55 million option back then. I think that's still looking good. It's slightly up yoy so far, but that will probably change in the coming months, so that it ends up being slightly down. Should still manage another 2-2.5 million more this year, to bring it to ~50 million. Then a sharp drop next year to something like 2-2.5 million for the whole year, and a huge drop for the year after that as it basically dies, with the XSX and PS5 fully taking over its space. I think it'll end up right in the middle of that original 51-55 million prediction.
So for this poll I'll go with the 52.0-52.9 option.
Edit - I see <50 is currently winning. Unless people think the current total is wildly off, then there's no way it fails to hit 50 million. It's done 1.6 million so far this year, and even if it ends up being down a lot yoy there's no way it sells less in the second half of this year than it did in the first half. But let's imagine for the sake of argument that it sold the same amount in the second half of 2020 - that still takes it to 49.4 million by the end of 2020. Would then need to sell less than 600k for the entirety of 2021 (and beyond) to stay below the 50 million mark.
Last edited by Machina - on 09 June 2020