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Will/Can the PS4 Outsell the PS2?

Yes 3 5.08%
 
No 51 86.44%
 
Comes very close (under 10M) 5 8.47%
 
Total:59

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/443822/can-the-ps4-outsell-the-ps2-analysis/

So let's discuss.



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I read it earlier. It was long, but didn't touch on the PS2's actual sales progression much. The PS4 is showing a clear decline from year 5 to 6 while the PS2 had had a stronger hold.

The sole premise for the PS4 to have any shot at matching the PS2 is a completely unrealistic sales curve of consistent 20% year over year declines until the end of its life. Consistent 30% year over year declines are unrealistic too, but if that actually happened, the PS4 would finish under 140m. It was a rather weak analysis for a question where the answer is a clear "no." It should have included more sales data for the PS2 while at the same time explaining all the factors why the PS2 had a long tail.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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I doubt it.
A real strong point for the PS2, was that it was being sold dirt cheap for a few years after the new consoles launched. It was regularly outselling the 360 and PS3 for a while after they launched. It was being sold for $99 towards the end.
I think PS4 will get surprisingly close, but it won't beat it, unless Sony decides to sell it at those kinds of discounts.



I would be surprised if you PS4 passed 130. I'm stickin to 125ish.



Xxain said:
I would be surprised if you PS4 passed 130. I'm stickin to 125ish.

125 is pretty low. Even the worst legs sony console - PS3 did around 8M after PS4 launched, therefore PS4 even in the worst case scenario have to atleast hit around 130M (assuming that with 2020 it does around 118/120M)



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This was my first longer analysis piece. I know there are some points I didn't cover into the closest details possible. I mainly wanted to see what it would take for the PS4 to have any chance of outselling the PS2. Everything needs to go right for the PS4 to even have a slim chance, with a $100 price cut this year, while the PS5 needs have a start as slow as the PS3.

if this article does well enough, I'll look into doing longer analysis pieces more often. As most of you know the Gap Charts are bite size articles, which is the main original sales articles I do. Other than posting the weekly hardware estimates.

Thank you all who took the time to read the article. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

This was my first longer analysis piece. I know there are some points I didn't cover into the closest details possible. I mainly wanted to see what it would take for the PS4 to have any chance of outselling the PS2. Everything needs to go right for the PS4 to even have a slim chance, with a $100 price cut this year, while the PS5 needs have a start as slow as the PS3.

if this article does well enough, I'll look into doing longer analysis pieces more often. As most of you know the Gap Charts are bite size articles, which is the main original sales articles I do. Other than posting the weekly hardware estimates.

Thank you all who took the time to read the article. 

As I said in one of the comments:

what about the case of PS1 and PS2 ? where the PS2 was very successful console and despite this PS1 still sold well after the launch of PS2 ? around 20M or more (which for the sales back then which PS1 had - 80M that was 25% of the total sales more) which now would be around 30M more (25% of ~120 = 30M) which would pretty close

and there are some points that PS4 needs to hit yes, however I think some of them are almost given.

PS5/PS4 enough price difference as opposite to PS3/PS4 100$ difference - it's almost sure that PS5 will be at least 500 maybe even 600 so there will be at least 200$ and probably even 300$. The casual gamers and families will buy the PS4 and the hardcore real gamers will buy PS5. Why the one has to be weak for the other to be success ? I don't get it. They can sell simultaneously well.

Price cut - As opposite to PS3, PS4 don't have expensive (for the time it was, now it's older and cheaper technology) blu ray player or CELL cpu (the amd one is cheaper) Therefore it would be easier for sony to do a pricecut to 199$ or even 149$ in future than it was for them for the PS3. However if they actually want and will do is other topic .. I am saying just that with the PS3 they would probably loose money at 149 or 199$ and for the PS4 they will probably make money on these prices.

The other points that are needed and are not so difficult to make for sony are good game and holiday bundles for PS4, as well as putting money in marketing, just like they did for PS2. I don't know if you remeber but besides PS3, in 2006, 2007 and 2008 sony heavily marketed PS2 as well, even on every stage up until 2009 E3 they talked for sometime for the PS2, how successful has been and what new (casual and sports) games PS2 will get in the near future.

Sony don't need PS5 to have slow start or to be bad selling console for the PS4 to continue selling.

It just needs enough price difference between the two like 300$, around 2-3 years continiuos support for 3rd party games for the PS4 after PS5 launch, good marketing for the console at least 2 years after the launch of PS5 and good console bundles with 1 or 2 more major (100$) pricecuts (1 this year to 199$ and maybe 1 more in 2022/2023 to 149 or 99$)

All of this is not hard to do or to happen, it just depends on what sony wants and will do.

And talk whatever you want about those emerging markets, but when one kid with his mother go in the gamestore in 2022 and see PS5 for 500$ or even 400$ maybe by then, next to PS4 for 200$ she will probably go for the cheaper PS4 for 200$. Gamer who is not hardcore and want some cheap system to play just some good and cheap games will go for the 200$ system too.

It has a chance, but everything depends on Sony themselves. If they want to sell 10 more milion systems on 299$ or 30/40M more on 199$ and maybe some of them on 149$



Sell PS4 Pro for 199$ this september and it will happen, but Sony may be scared of a PS2-PS3 situation.



It can happen? Yes, but you need a lot of factors like high price of Ps5 and slash the PS4 to $199 slim and PS4 pro to $299.

But it will be finish around 135-140 million units. The legs compared to PS3 will be higher this time



Not gonna happen.

PS2 sold as much as it did in its later life due to factors like it being dirt cheap, releasing very late in a lot of developing markets, and PS3 stumbling out of the gate and so not quickly superseding it.

PS4 is in a totally different situation. Sony is showing no inclination to aggressively lower its price, its already been out in the developing markets for years, PS5 is unlikely to have PS3's struggles, and Sony have stated that they plan to move transition customers to PS5 faster than in previous generations.

All this suggests PS4 will not sell anywhere near as much after its replacement as PS2 did, and with PS5 likely less than 6 months away, another 45 million sales from here on out is simply out of reach.

I expect it will settle between 130 and 140 million lifetime; an extremely respectable total and the third highest selling system of all time. Better to celebrate this achievement than hold it to an impossible standard that will only lead to disappointment.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 05 June 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.