Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch shipped 55.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Nintendo Switch shipped 55.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 80 million 71 5.77%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 87 7.07%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 148 12.02%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 322 26.16%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 228 18.52%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 191 15.52%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 60 4.87%
 
140.0 - 149.9 million 28 2.27%
 
150.0 - 160.0 million 21 1.71%
 
More than 160 million 75 6.09%
 
Total:1,231

Shipments of Nintendo Switch reached 55.77m by March 31st 2020.

Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31st 2021 is 19m units. In their financial briefing Nintendo reiterated that they intend to give Switch a longer lifecycle than previous consoles.

What are your lifetime sales expectations?

...

Bonus question: How many Switch consoles does your household currently own and how many do you see your household owning in total eventually? All current and possible future models of Switch are eligible for the latter half of the question.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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Between 130-140 million. 55-60 in Americas, 30-35 in Europe, 25-30 in Japan and 10-15 in ROTW.I currently own one system but I'm not sure If i'm going to buy another one in the near future although, I'd like to live the lite experience at some time. I'm really optimist for the sales of Switch.

EDIT: I miss your Kim Possible banner.



Good time to ask this again. It's almost 2 years since I did the first Switch sales total poll of the week - https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237351

That time around the 66-80 million mark was the most popular option, with 81-95 a very close second. Both now seem very under-optimistic, but that's with the benefit of hindsight.

I went with 96-110 at the time and I think that's still looking pretty reasonable tbh. 

Since we're at the console's peak right now I'm expecting this poll's results to end up being over-optimistic, in contrast to last time, as people get carried away with the figures it's currently posting and feel like the days of summer will never end (or be a longer way off than they in fact are).



Machina said:

Good time to ask this again. It's almost 2 years since I did the first Switch sales total poll of the week - https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237351

That time around the 66-80 million mark was the most popular option, with 81-95 a very close second. Both now seem very under-optimistic, but that's with the benefit of hindsight.

I went with 96-110 at the time and I think that's still looking pretty reasonable tbh. 

Since we're at the console's peak right now I'm expecting this poll's results to end up being over-optimistic, in contrast to last time, as people get carried away with the figures it's currently posting and feel like the days of summer will never end (or be a longer way off than they in fact are).

I see, I was conservative back then, just like I am now. I had the PS4 at ~120m two years ago, so I was content with the 111-125m option for Switch in your poll. This time I picked 130-139.9m, because I am using PS4 sales as worst case for Switch and don't bank on Nintendo making all the right games in the future.

Similar kind of thinking (i.e. Switch will definitely not sell more than the PS4) is why I expect the current poll to skew towards a pessimistic average. By now most people are going to grant Switch 100m, but that will be about it.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Honestly these last few months have convinced me its gonna end up closer to the DS than the Gameboy. The Switch is in higher demand than ever and I could see it doing incredible numbers both this and next year.
Currently I'm thinking somewhere between 140 and 150 mil.



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Machina said:

Good time to ask this again. It's almost 2 years since I did the first Switch sales total poll of the week - https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237351

That time around the 66-80 million mark was the most popular option, with 81-95 a very close second. Both now seem very under-optimistic, but that's with the benefit of hindsight.

I went with 96-110 at the time and I think that's still looking pretty reasonable tbh. 

Since we're at the console's peak right now I'm expecting this poll's results to end up being over-optimistic, in contrast to last time, as people get carried away with the figures it's currently posting and feel like the days of summer will never end (or be a longer way off than they in fact are).

Huh, totally forgot about even voting in that but apparently I had the same estimate. Can't remember what my reasoning was at all.

At this point I'm far more optimistic about Switch's future. It may be peaking now, but whereas many seem to believe it'll still fall off and stumble towards it's final years, I feel they have a lot of big hitters preparing for the second half of it's life, that'll help sustain high numbers for a while.

The fact that right now Switch is coasting on the sales momentum of Animal Crossing, a beast that no one was prepared for, epitomises how Switch has been able to blow expectations apart on several fronts.

If there was ever the time for more people to become bold, it's probably now.

I'll still put it just at 130.0 - 139.9 million. I'm feeling 135m is good for now. 5m more than PS4, which I'm guessing will sneak over 130m.

Bonus answer: One, and one (unless there's a Switch Pro or something crazy).



122.5m, The Switch will buck the trend for nintendo systems by having a longer tail and not nosediving in sales after year 5.



110 million. Beats PS1 and Wii but falls just shy of Gameboy, ending up the #5 best selling system of all time.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 01 June 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

130 million.

70 million by the end of the year, 90 million next year, 110 million in 2022, 125 million by 2023, 130 million by 2024



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I can see it top 120M, I’m not confident enough in it’s legs to go up to DS territory.

Bonus answer: One. Will remain one.