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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bolder Prediction: [So Far 8.18mil] Animal Crossing New Horizons will be 12mil in Japan Lifetime

 

It will sell (ship+digital)

Under 7mil 4 9.30%
 
Around 7.5mil 5 11.63%
 
8mil 3 6.98%
 
8.5mil 4 9.30%
 
9mil 3 6.98%
 
9.5mil 3 6.98%
 
10mil 3 6.98%
 
10.5mil 2 4.65%
 
11mil 2 4.65%
 
12mil 14 32.56%
 
Total:43

BOLD PREDICTION: Animal Crossing New Horizons will sell 12mil Lifetime in Japan!!! O.o

First of all yes that means beating the almighty Pokémon RB that sold just over 8.2mil copies. Yes the last highest selling game was AC New Leaf which is above 5.79mil in Japan (2012 release). I understand I’m asking for twice as much sales compared to New Leaf and 50% more than Pokémon RB... but it wouldn’t be BOLD without it :)

Let’s start off with how it’ll become a 12mil seller, I expect NSW to keep selling for years and sell over 28mil as of this post, which would mean between 40-45% attach ratio as an estimate.

It’s currently at 3611k with retail after 5 weeks. Demand isn’t slowing down and most people are pinning it between Pokémon RB and GS in sales (7.2mil-8.2mil Lifetime). But I believe it’ll continue to sell throughout this whole year and surpass both games by years end to start. Next week NH should surpass NL First 4 quarter sales which is shown below! Here is my prediction....

Sell thru famitsu

ACNL
Q1 2287k (8weeks and Holiday)
Q2 1053k
Q3 323k
Q4 161k
Y1 3823k

ACNH
Q1 2608k (2weeks)
Q2 2396k 

Q3 332k (5weeks so far)


Y1 5337k

OLD

 prediction ACNH (shipment+Digital)
Q1 4200k
Q2 2800k (yes I’m serious)
Q3 500k 
Q4 800k
Y1 8300k (surpassing Pokémon RG)

NEW

 

Q3: 1100k (8250k) *Best selling GoaT
Q4: 1250k (9500k)


And that’s all folks! What do y’all think? Anybody on board for team 12mil o.O

let me know your thoughts... thank you for the read fellow members :)

Last edited by tbone51 - on 07 August 2020

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Here is the other Thread

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242043/bold-prediction-animal-crossing-nh-will-be-the-best-selling-game-of-all-time-in-japan-8mil/


That was 8mil before this prediction



It is possible. Though I think in a couple months we'll see it drift down under 10,000/week territory. I voted 10 million.

With digital its probably at least 5 million right now right? Maybe even closer to 5.5 million? It might do another 1.5 million before its numbers settle down to that sub-10k/weekly over the next couple months. So by end of June let's say it's at 7 million. Let's say it does another million by end of year and its at 8 million. But then it averages 700k/year for the next three years that puts it just over 10 million around the time Switch 2 comes out and maybe it gets a couple hundred thousand more sales after that.

10 - 10.5 million would be my guess....which is crazy! Before its launch I thought it'd do 5 million in Japan, which even that would have been incredible.



That's just a little too bold for me. Can't see it beating the previous record by that much.



Well, it's Tbone, so it will happen.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Well, it's Tbone, so it will happen.

Lol. I wonder if my record will finally collapse since I made my first thread on era. I mean I only put it at 12mil cuz I’m not satisfied with 10mil. Lmao



tbone51 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Well, it's Tbone, so it will happen.

Lol. I wonder if my record will finally collapse since I made my first thread on era. I mean I only put it at 12mil cuz I’m not satisfied with 10mil. Lmao

You should make a thread with all your BOLD predictions, update it and link it in all your future BOLD prediction thread 😂



abronn627 said:
tbone51 said:

Lol. I wonder if my record will finally collapse since I made my first thread on era. I mean I only put it at 12mil cuz I’m not satisfied with 10mil. Lmao

You should make a thread with all your BOLD predictions, update it and link it in all your future BOLD prediction thread 😂

+1

And those threads are always funny as heck in retrospect when reading the doubter's posts...



Bofferbrauer2 said:
abronn627 said:

You should make a thread with all your BOLD predictions, update it and link it in all your future BOLD prediction thread 😂

+1

And those threads are always funny as heck in retrospect when reading the doubter's posts...

Oh no, I think I made like 30 and I probably did some dumb ones lol.

off the top of my head I said LM2 would do 1mil in japan, Splatoon would break 1mil WW in a month and Splatoon would hit 1mil in japan by years end..... BotW would sell over 10mil and that was an understatement lol



tbone51 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

+1

And those threads are always funny as heck in retrospect when reading the doubter's posts...

Oh no, I think I made like 30 and I probably did some dumb ones lol.

off the top of my head I said LM2 would do 1mil in japan, Splatoon would break 1mil WW in a month and Splatoon would hit 1mil in japan by years end..... BotW would sell over 10mil and that was an understatement lol

The Splatoon ones were especially funny, since so many thought it would sell similarly to TW101

Here's a list of BOLD Predictions:

  1. This one will get interesting in a week or so: Can AC cross 25M Worldwide?
  2. 10M LT for Luigi's Mansion 3
  3. Your Ultimate Bold prediction of 15M first month for Smash. Didn't work out, but not that far off, either.
  4. A bit less bold: 25M LT for Smash
  5. Even less bold (and older): 20M+ for Smash
  6. Splatoon 2018 outselling Splatoon 2017?
  7. 99 On Metacritic for Super Mario Odyssey? Almost, dude, almost...
  8. Splatoon 2 outselling DQ XI combined numbers. Could need some update btw
  9. 10M LT for BotW
  10. 4M Switch in Japan in 2017
  11. 18M shipped for Sun/Moon in launch year
  12. Fire Emblem IF 700k FW and 1M+ LT in Japan
  13. A bold prediction about Amiibos
  14. As for Splatoon... looks like that one wasn't a BOLD prediction. At least I couldn't find one, just this. But. It. Is. Glorious! As is this one, which is just about Japan.

Also funny how you predicted Splatoon in Smash already after it's E3 announcement trailer

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 25 April 2020