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Forums - Sales Discussion - February NPD 2020 thread

Ryng on 13 March 2020

February NPD 2020

OFFICIAL RELEASE

State of the market

February 2020 tracked spending across Video Game Hardware, Software, Accessories and Game Cards totaled $755m, declining 29% vs a year ago. Late cycle hardware dynamics for PS4 and Xbox One as well as a lighter new release software slate drove the variance.

Year-to-date 2020 tracked spending across Video Game Hardware, Software, Accessories and Game Cards totaled $1.4 billion, falling 28 percent when compared to a year ago.

Software

Dollar sales of tracked Video Game Software fell 36 percent in February compared to a year ago, to $307 million. Declines were driven by the sparse new release slate. Year-to-date software sales fell 33 percent when compared to prior year, to $618 million.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare returns to the top of the chart, ranking as the best-selling game of February. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare is the second best-selling game of 2020 to date, and remains the best-selling game over the 12 month period ending February.

Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot remains the best-selling game of 2020.

No new release video game of February 2020 reached the top 20 best-sellers chart. The best-selling new release of the month was The Yakuza Remastered Collection, placing as the 33rd best-selling game of the month.

Tom Clancy's The Division 2 returned to the chart, ranking as the 5th best-selling game of February. The title was promotionally priced across both digital (as low as $2.99) and physical retail (as low as $5) during the month.

Ring Fit Adventure moved up one position from its January (which was already its best placement yet) ranking to become the #8 video game on the best-sellers chart in February. The title also ranked as the 2nd best-selling game on Nintendo Switch for the month, trailing only Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

Hardware

Hardware spending in February 2020 fell 34 percent when compared to a year ago, to $183 million. All in market console platforms declined when compared to a year ago. Annual spending has dropped 35 percent, to $312 million.

Nintendo Switch was the best-selling hardware platform of February in both unit and dollar sales and reamins the best-selling hardware platform of the year.

Accessories

Total February 2020 spending on Accessories and Game Cards reached $265 million, falling 14 percent when compared to a year ago. Year-to-date spending has declined 13 percent, to $500 million.

The Xbox Elite Series 2 Wireless Controller was the best-selling video game accessory for the fourth consecutive month. It is the best-selling accessory year-to-date.

Software charts

February 2020 top 20 :



Xbox One



PlayStation 4




Nintendo Switch




The 10 best-selling games of 2020



The 10 best-selling games of the last 12 months

archivie

2020: January, 
2019: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2018: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2017: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2016: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2015: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2014: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2013: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2012: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2011: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2010: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2009: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2008: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December
2007: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December

.



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TruckOSaurus on 13 March 2020

We never got anything concrete for January right? Here's hoping we get something this month.



Signature goes here!

Farsala on 13 March 2020

Switch down YoY again.

Dreams sales were pathetic. I hope Nioh 2 does much better in March.

The Division 2 probably was the best seller for the month in unit sales, it made #5 with absolutely tiny $ value.



The_Liquid_Laser on 14 March 2020
Shadow1980 said:
Ryng said:

All in market console platforms declined when compared to a year ago.

So even the Switch is down again. Could it be a demand issue, a supply issue (because of the virus), or a bit of both? In either case, while it's still early in the year, two consecutive months of YoY declines don't bode well for continued growth for the Switch. Unless there's some massive system-seller announced for this year or a major price cut, then 2020 as a whole could end up down, and 2019 could have been the Switch's peak year in the U.S. And for those who were very bullish on the Switch, this is not the kind of sales behavior we need to be seeing out of it if it's going to have a chance of passing the Wii, much less the DS. Given what we've seen from literally every other Nintendo system ever, if the Switch is down for several consecutive quarters, that will essentially have confirmed post-peak status.

This kind of talk is premature considering there is a global pandemic going on.  Good data analysis doesn't happen in a vacuum.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

xMetroid on 15 March 2020
Shadow1980 said:
Marth said:

There is a massive system seller already coming in march.

Also Switch is down partly because of the Smash Ultimate spillover.

Nothing of importance released last December. Brain Age did not get a release in the US.

But Animal Crossing will turn things around. Watch Swich be up the next 6 months easily.

Regardless of the reasons, no Nintendo system that has, after experiencing several consecutive quarters of growth followed by several consecutive quarters of YoY losses, ever experienced another period of growth. Once the growth gave way to losses, the system was post-peak (this isn't always the case for PlayStation & Xbox, for reasons too complex for me to want to get into at the moment).

The Switch's sales growth was already clearly slowing down, and it's already down two consecutive months so far. If it continues to have YoY drops well into the year, that will effectively signal the Switch's transition to post-peak in the U.S.

And I don't expect Animal Crossing to do wonders for Switch sales, either. It may provide a decent boost for March, but that's it. If you look at New Leaf's performance in the U.S., it sold only 1.36M copies in its first 12 weeks, and its effects on 3DS hardware sales helped it for maybe two months at best and even then only relatively modestly, with Pokemon X & Y being a far better system-seller:

Yea but we also never had a huge pandemic like that in the modern video game industry so i think it's a bit a reach to get to those conclusions when everything on the market is impacted by it rn. January was likely down cause 2019 had Smash momentum and NSMBU vs 2020 having nothing but a pandemic.

Not saying it will do better next year but i think in the coming months we will see it rise again depending on the situation with covid-19. Switch was beasting in Japan earlier in the year but is down compare to last year now because of the same reason, so maybe Switch would have been on top again this month and Jan was really just Smash effect.



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Nu-13 on 15 March 2020
Shadow1980 said:
Ryng said:

All in market console platforms declined when compared to a year ago.

So even the Switch is down again. Could it be a demand issue, a supply issue (because of the virus), or a bit of both? In either case, while it's still early in the year, two consecutive months of YoY declines don't bode well for continued growth for the Switch. Unless there's some massive system-seller announced for this year or a major price cut, then 2020 as a whole could end up down, and 2019 could have been the Switch's peak year in the U.S. And for those who were very bullish on the Switch, this is not the kind of sales behavior we need to be seeing out of it if it's going to have a chance of passing the Wii, much less the DS. Given what we've seen from literally every other Nintendo system ever, if the Switch is down for several consecutive quarters, that will essentially have confirmed post-peak status.

What a terrible analysis. It would take a catastrophe for the switch to be down in 2020.



DonFerrari on 16 March 2020

Why did Switch drop YOY for this NPD? Was any notable release last year?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 17 March 2020
trunkswd said:
DonFerrari said:
Why did Switch drop YOY for this NPD? Was any notable release last year?

It was down slightly in January NPD as well. January 2019 saw the release of New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe and Travis Strikes Again: No More Heroes as more notable titles. I don't recall anything big released in February 2019. If it wasn't for the coronavirus, the Switch would easily be up in March due to Animal Crossing. But right now it is hard to say. Digital game sales are looking great right now with so many people staying home. 

Understood. It is on a point that it could either be the plateau at the peak or just outside factors that in a couple months will normalize and 2020 still be a growth year for Switch.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

xMetroid on 17 March 2020
Shadow1980 said:
xMetroid said:

Yea but we also never had a huge pandemic like that in the modern video game industry so i think it's a bit a reach to get to those conclusions when everything on the market is impacted by it rn. January was likely down cause 2019 had Smash momentum and NSMBU vs 2020 having nothing but a pandemic.

Not saying it will do better next year but i think in the coming months we will see it rise again depending on the situation with covid-19. Switch was beasting in Japan earlier in the year but is down compare to last year now because of the same reason, so maybe Switch would have been on top again this month and Jan was really just Smash effect.

The_Liquid_Laser said:

This kind of talk is premature considering there is a global pandemic going on.  Good data analysis doesn't happen in a vacuum.

I did ask "Could it be a demand issue, a supply issue (because of the virus), or a bit of both?" and I did say that "it's still early in the year." We did see a drop in sales in Japan because of the virus, so it could be the case here in the U.S.

In any case, even before the virus was a huge concern I was not expecting strong continued growth from the Switch. While the virus will likely have the effect of shifting some sales to later in the year, I've long had my doubts that the Switch will see sales considerably better than what we saw in 2019. If 2020 as a whole ends up being up over 2019, it won't be by much, and I firmly believe 2021 will see lower sales than both of them.

My point was you acted like it could be affected by it while it literally is the main reason why it's down are you joking. We don't know how long it will last but thing is Switch might have peaked last year because of that but it might have a longer lifecycle also.



The_Liquid_Laser on 17 March 2020
Shadow1980 said:
xMetroid said:

Yea but we also never had a huge pandemic like that in the modern video game industry so i think it's a bit a reach to get to those conclusions when everything on the market is impacted by it rn. January was likely down cause 2019 had Smash momentum and NSMBU vs 2020 having nothing but a pandemic.

Not saying it will do better next year but i think in the coming months we will see it rise again depending on the situation with covid-19. Switch was beasting in Japan earlier in the year but is down compare to last year now because of the same reason, so maybe Switch would have been on top again this month and Jan was really just Smash effect.

The_Liquid_Laser said:

This kind of talk is premature considering there is a global pandemic going on.  Good data analysis doesn't happen in a vacuum.

I did ask "Could it be a demand issue, a supply issue (because of the virus), or a bit of both?" and I did say that "it's still early in the year." We did see a drop in sales in Japan because of the virus, so it could be the case here in the U.S.

In any case, even before the virus was a huge concern I was not expecting strong continued growth from the Switch. While the virus will likely have the effect of shifting some sales to later in the year, I've long had my doubts that the Switch will see sales considerably better than what we saw in 2019. If 2020 as a whole ends up being up over 2019, it won't be by much, and I firmly believe 2021 will see lower sales than both of them.

You still don't get it.

1)  The type of question you asked is a loaded question.  It is sometimes referred to as "begging the question".  It is clear that you are begging the question from the context of the rest of your post.

2)  There is a worldwide pandemic going on like we haven't seen in at least 100 years.  There is no video game sales data from the past for this sort of situation.  Therefore it is very possible for Switch to be down this year and then sales to be radically up the next.  As far as game sales are concerned we are in uncharted territory.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox