Forums - Sales Discussion - February NPD 2020 thread

February NPD 2020

OFFICIAL RELEASE

State of the market

February 2020 tracked spending across Video Game Hardware, Software, Accessories and Game Cards totaled $755m, declining 29% vs a year agoLate cycle hardware dynamics for PS4 and Xbox One as well as a lighter new release software slate drove the variance.

Year-to-date 2020 tracked spending across Video Game Hardware, Software, Accessories and Game Cards totaled $1.4 billion, falling 28 percent when compared to a year ago.

Software


Dollar sales of tracked Video Game Software fell 36 percent in February compared to a year ago, to $307 million. Declines were driven by the sparse new release slate. Year-to-date software sales fell 33 percent when compared to prior year, to $618 million.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare returns to the top of the chart, ranking as the best-selling game of February. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare is the second best-selling game of 2020 to date, and remains the best-selling game over the 12 month period ending February.

Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot remains the best-selling game of 2020.

No new release video game of February 2020 reached the top 20 best-sellers chart. The best-selling new release of the month was The Yakuza Remastered Collection, placing as the 33rd best-selling game of the month.

Tom Clancy's The Division 2 returned to the chart, ranking as the 5th best-selling game of February. The title was promotionally priced across both digital (as low as $2.99) and physical retail (as low as $5) during the month.

Ring Fit Adventure moved up one position from its January (which was already its best placement yet) ranking to become the #8 video game on the best-sellers chart in February. The title also ranked as the 2nd best-selling game on Nintendo Switch for the month, trailing only Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

Hardware

Hardware spending in February 2020 fell 34 percent when compared to a year ago, to $183 million. All in market console platforms declined when compared to a year ago. Annual spending has dropped 35 percent, to $312 million.

Nintendo Switch was the best-selling hardware platform of February in both unit and dollar sales and reamins the best-selling hardware platform of the year.

Accessories

Total February 2020 spending on Accessories and Game Cards reached $265 million, falling 14 percent when compared to a year ago. Year-to-date spending has declined 13 percent, to $500 million.

The Xbox Elite Series 2 Wireless Controller was the best-selling video game accessory for the fourth consecutive month. It is the best-selling accessory year-to-date.

Software charts

February 2020 top 20 :




Xbox One



PlayStation 4




Nintendo Switch




The 10 best-selling games of 2020



The 10 best-selling games of the last 12 months

archivie

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2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

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Give numbers pleeeeeaaaase NPD :(



German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently.

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon thread

We never got anything concrete for January right? Here's hoping we get something this month.



Signature goes here!

All 3 consoles are down in sales. Switch is only slightly down, while PS4 and Xbox One are down by a lot more. With Switch down by (likely) just single digits, it would mean PS4 and Xbox One sales are down around 40% as hardware revenue is down 34% YoY.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Ryng said:

All in market console platforms declined when compared to a year ago.

So even the Switch is down again. Could it be a demand issue, a supply issue (because of the virus), or a bit of both? In either case, while it's still early in the year, two consecutive months of YoY declines don't bode well for continued growth for the Switch. Unless there's some massive system-seller announced for this year or a major price cut, then 2020 as a whole could end up down, and 2019 could have been the Switch's peak year in the U.S. And for those who were very bullish on the Switch, this is not the kind of sales behavior we need to be seeing out of it if it's going to have a chance of passing the Wii, much less the DS. Given what we've seen from literally every other Nintendo system ever, if the Switch is down for several consecutive quarters, that will essentially have confirmed post-peak status.



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Shadow1980 said:
Ryng said:

All in market console platforms declined when compared to a year ago.

So even the Switch is down again. Could it be a demand issue, a supply issue (because of the virus), or a bit of both? In either case, while it's still early in the year, two consecutive months of YoY declines don't bode well for continued growth for the Switch. Unless there's some massive system-seller announced for this year or a major price cut, then 2020 as a whole could end up down, and 2019 could have been the Switch's peak year in the U.S. And for those who were very bullish on the Switch, this is not the kind of sales behavior we need to be seeing out of it if it's going to have a chance of passing the Wii, much less the DS. Given what we've seen from literally every other Nintendo system ever, if the Switch is down for several consecutive quarters, that will essentially have confirmed post-peak status.

There is a massive system seller already coming in march.

Also Switch is down partly because of the Smash Ultimate spillover.

Nothing of importance released last December. Brain Age did not get a release in the US.

But Animal Crossing will turn things around. Watch Swich be up the next 6 months easily.



German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently.

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon thread

Switch down YoY again.

Dreams sales were pathetic. I hope Nioh 2 does much better in March.

The Division 2 probably was the best seller for the month in unit sales, it made #5 with absolutely tiny $ value.



Marth said:

There is a massive system seller already coming in march.

Also Switch is down partly because of the Smash Ultimate spillover.

Nothing of importance released last December. Brain Age did not get a release in the US.

But Animal Crossing will turn things around. Watch Swich be up the next 6 months easily.

Regardless of the reasons, no Nintendo system that has, after experiencing several consecutive quarters of growth followed by several consecutive quarters of YoY losses, ever experienced another period of growth. Once the growth gave way to losses, the system was post-peak (this isn't always the case for PlayStation & Xbox, for reasons too complex for me to want to get into at the moment).

The Switch's sales growth was already clearly slowing down, and it's already down two consecutive months so far. If it continues to have YoY drops well into the year, that will effectively signal the Switch's transition to post-peak in the U.S.

And I don't expect Animal Crossing to do wonders for Switch sales, either. It may provide a decent boost for March, but that's it. If you look at New Leaf's performance in the U.S., it sold only 1.36M copies in its first 12 weeks, and its effects on 3DS hardware sales helped it for maybe two months at best and even then only relatively modestly, with Pokemon X & Y being a far better system-seller:



Shadow1980 said:
Marth said:

There is a massive system seller already coming in march.

Also Switch is down partly because of the Smash Ultimate spillover.

Nothing of importance released last December. Brain Age did not get a release in the US.

But Animal Crossing will turn things around. Watch Swich be up the next 6 months easily.

Regardless of the reasons, no Nintendo system that has, after experiencing several consecutive quarters of growth followed by several consecutive quarters of YoY losses, ever experienced another period of growth. Once the growth gave way to losses, the system was post-peak (this isn't always the case for PlayStation & Xbox, for reasons too complex for me to want to get into at the moment).

The Switch's sales growth was already clearly slowing down, and it's already down two consecutive months so far. If it continues to have YoY drops well into the year, that will effectively signal the Switch's transition to post-peak in the U.S.

And I don't expect Animal Crossing to do wonders for Switch sales, either. It may provide a decent boost for March, but that's it. If you look at New Leaf's performance in the U.S., it sold only 1.36M copies in its first 12 weeks, and its effects on 3DS hardware sales helped it for maybe two months at best and even then only relatively modestly, with Pokemon X & Y being a far better system-seller:

I have to admit I probably got a bit blindsided by Japan as Animal Crossing will have a huge impact there.

But did not quite realize that this is US only.

Still think that Animal Crossing and its special Hardware version can make this quarter a YoY growth. After all the drop in January and February has not been that big. Afterwards the Switch has its usually weak Q1 but Animal Crossing should help there. I expect New Horizons to have better performance than New Leaf.

And after that I expect it to drop.



German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently.

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon thread

Shadow1980 said:
Ryng said:

All in market console platforms declined when compared to a year ago.

So even the Switch is down again. Could it be a demand issue, a supply issue (because of the virus), or a bit of both? In either case, while it's still early in the year, two consecutive months of YoY declines don't bode well for continued growth for the Switch. Unless there's some massive system-seller announced for this year or a major price cut, then 2020 as a whole could end up down, and 2019 could have been the Switch's peak year in the U.S. And for those who were very bullish on the Switch, this is not the kind of sales behavior we need to be seeing out of it if it's going to have a chance of passing the Wii, much less the DS. Given what we've seen from literally every other Nintendo system ever, if the Switch is down for several consecutive quarters, that will essentially have confirmed post-peak status.

This kind of talk is premature considering there is a global pandemic going on.  Good data analysis doesn't happen in a vacuum.