Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch can't/won't outsell DS because...........

Higher price - prices can be dropped.

Cazulaz went to smartphones - Brain Training and Nintendogs might be possible on smartphones but Ring Fit Adventure and Switch Sports aren't.

Cannibalising successor - I don't see it. All I see is a delay in upgrading. For some reason the hardcorez are already clamouring for Mario Kart 8 and NSMBUD in 4K just like when they wanted MKWii and Wii Sports in HD. It's great when people are dying for your next product 7 years before it even releases but I think Nintendo would be stupid to make MK9 and NNSMB exclusive to Switch 2. If the hardcorez want them in 4K, fine, but there's no reason why Switch's life has to be cut short instead of releasing them alongside a 1080p version for the original.

TL:DR - It's a portable PS3/360. The amount of life left in this BEAST is unprecedented. No offense but the PC, PS4 and XB1 brought nothing new this gen that wasn't possible on smartphones (in terms of success as opposed to VR). If Switch can run Fortnite, Minecraft, CoD, GTA5 and FIFA then Nintendo can keep it alive for 20 years if they wanted to. In terms of gameplay, is there anything that a Switch successor could do for Pokemon, SMB, Mario Kart, Wii Sports and Brawl that the original can't?



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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Considering the fact that the Switch has passed the 52 million units sold, considering it's definitely a success that keeps selling, I think this thread could have made sense a couple years ago but now it does not. Why would anyone think the Switch can't outsell the DS given what we now know?

As for saying the PS4 has brought nothing to this gen, I wouldn't go down that path if I were you.

Also I'm hungry and I don't feel like debating this for the next couple hours. Just don't go down that path ok? 



Pyro as Bill said:

Higher price - prices can be dropped.

Cazulaz went to smartphones - Brain Training and Nintendogs might be possible on smartphones but Ring Fit Adventure and Switch Sports aren't.

Cannibalising successor - I don't see it. All I see is a delay in upgrading. For some reason the hardcorez are already clamouring for Mario Kart 8 and NSMBUD in 4K just like when they wanted MKWii and Wii Sports in HD. It's great when people are dying for your next product 7 years before it even releases but I think Nintendo would be stupid to make MK9 and NNSMB exclusive to Switch 2. If the hardcorez want them in 4K, fine, but there's no reason why Switch's life has to be cut short instead of releasing them alongside a 1080p version for the original.

TL:DR - It's a portable PS3/360. The amount of life left in this BEAST is unprecedented. No offense but the PC, PS4 and XB1 brought nothing new this gen that wasn't possible on smartphones (in terms of success as opposed to VR). If Switch can run Fortnite, Minecraft, CoD, GTA5 and FIFA then Nintendo can keep it alive for 20 years if they wanted to. In terms of gameplay, is there anything that a Switch successor could do for Pokemon, SMB, Mario Kart, Wii Sports and Brawl that the original can't?

Yes it can run GTA 5 and COD but neither of these publishers want to release these games on it so...



Radek said:
Pyro as Bill said:

Higher price - prices can be dropped.

Cazulaz went to smartphones - Brain Training and Nintendogs might be possible on smartphones but Ring Fit Adventure and Switch Sports aren't.

Cannibalising successor - I don't see it. All I see is a delay in upgrading. For some reason the hardcorez are already clamouring for Mario Kart 8 and NSMBUD in 4K just like when they wanted MKWii and Wii Sports in HD. It's great when people are dying for your next product 7 years before it even releases but I think Nintendo would be stupid to make MK9 and NNSMB exclusive to Switch 2. If the hardcorez want them in 4K, fine, but there's no reason why Switch's life has to be cut short instead of releasing them alongside a 1080p version for the original.

TL:DR - It's a portable PS3/360. The amount of life left in this BEAST is unprecedented. No offense but the PC, PS4 and XB1 brought nothing new this gen that wasn't possible on smartphones (in terms of success as opposed to VR). If Switch can run Fortnite, Minecraft, CoD, GTA5 and FIFA then Nintendo can keep it alive for 20 years if they wanted to. In terms of gameplay, is there anything that a Switch successor could do for Pokemon, SMB, Mario Kart, Wii Sports and Brawl that the original can't?

Yes it can run GTA 5 and COD but neither of these publishers want to release these games on it so... Nintendo shouldn't be in any rush to upgrade because it wouldn't make any difference and if 3rd parties want to ignore a 100M+ userbase that isn't playing CoD and GTA on their smartphones then that's on them.

Edit- and GTA and CoD had no impact on DS so...



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Because this:

The Switch did better than the DS initially in the U.S., but that's because the DS had a weak start. When the DS Lite was released, the DS experienced the single largest and most protracted period of growth of any system ever in the U.S. market. Once you put the Switch up against post-DS Lite quarters, the DS has outperformed it considerably (only in Q4 of Year 2 did the Switch do better than the post-Lite DS). Overall, the DS sold about 8.2M in 2007, vs. about 6.5M for the Switch in 2019. That's 29.6% better for Year 3 for the DS. And the DS kept growing. Total Year 1 to Year 3 sales for the Switch are now only less than 700k ahead of what the DS did in the same time frame (and if you add in the 1225k the DS sold in Nov.+Dec. 2004, it's actually ahead of the Switch).

Unless the Switch can manage 50% YoY growth this year, that deficit is going to grow, very quickly, and considering January NPD summaries indicate the Switch is actually slightly down this year, and with no new hardware model due this year, that doesn't bode well for any significant year-over-year growth. Even a big price cut and some big game likely won't do the trick for the Switch this year. Historical sales patterns show that, in nearly cases (and in all cases with Nintendo systems), once a system has had several quarters of YoY growth and that growth ceases and turns into YoY declines, that system will have entered the terminal decline phase of its life. It's entirely possible that 2019 was the Switch's peak in the U.S., though we won't have a clear enough picture to tell for certain for at least another few months.

In Japan, the Switch has already racked up a staggering deficit against the DS. Even if we ignore the DS's 2004 sales, the Switch is running a deficit of nearly 8 million units against the DS. The Switch is even trailing the 3DS by a decent amount, and the 3DS also fell well short of the DS. Unless it pulls some mind-blowing figures over the next 3-4 years that put 2019 sales levels to shame, there's no way in hell the Switch is going to even come close matching the DS in Japan, much less surpassing it.

And if VGC data is any indication, the Switch will have to quadruple its current LTD sales figures in Europe to just tie the DS. No system has ever been that back-loaded, so it'd be safe to file that under "Not Going to Happen."

TL;DR: A cursory glance at the sales data demonstrates quite clearly that the odds of the Switch surpassing the DS are close to nil.



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Switch will outsell the Wii easily, and at the very least be Nintendo's second highest selling "portable". DS numbers are simply a stretch for the same reason PS2 numbers are, in that they landed during a very specific time that allowed for such sales to happen.

/thread



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Operating Income/Profit is the ONLY thing that matters. At the end of the day, if they have more money in their bank account by selling less but also consolidating their teams down to cost effective sizes and reducing redundancies, it's a win. Selling 100 mil of one device and one set of teams you have to pay salaries to and advertise for is better than selling 250il devices where you have to pay double on everything due to different games/markets if they have more profit at the end of the year.

Nintendo has been building towards the long game (10+ years from now) while we all obsess over the short term game. They know what's coming. Consolidation and differentiation are the only things that will keep people buying their hardware when the legion that is Microsoft/Amazon/Apple/Google has their own cloud streaming platforms. Unless Sony drastically changed their model I don't know how their gaming division can survive ten years from now. Who will want to buy a box that can only play on a TV when they could cloud stream it? I'm not speaking about now but rather the 2030-2040's when cloud gaming will actually function properly.



the coronavirus.



1doesnotsimply

Dulfite said:

Operating Income/Profit is the ONLY thing that matters. At the end of the day, if they have more money in their bank account by selling less but also consolidating their teams down to cost effective sizes and reducing redundancies, it's a win. Selling 100 mil of one device and one set of teams you have to pay salaries to and advertise for is better than selling 250il devices where you have to pay double on everything due to different games/markets if they have more profit at the end of the year.

Nintendo has been building towards the long game (10+ years from now) while we all obsess over the short term game. They know what's coming. Consolidation and differentiation are the only things that will keep people buying their hardware when the legion that is Microsoft/Amazon/Apple/Google has their own cloud streaming platforms. Unless Sony drastically changed their model I don't know how their gaming division can survive ten years from now. Who will want to buy a box that can only play on a TV when they could cloud stream it? I'm not speaking about now but rather the 2030-2040's when cloud gaming will actually function properly.

I think that saying it's the ONLY thing that matters is an oversimplification, but yeah, in general I think fans are much more concerned about sales records than developers.  As a fan, I'd rather see Nintendo have a smooth transition to their next console then have the Switch outsell any particular system.



Well, eventually the interest for switch from non owners will decline, even if nintendo supports it, like 3DS.
Only switch owners would buy the new games.
Also, is better to have 2 consoles selling 100 to 120M than 1 sellling 160 to 180M(that will also have more price drops).
But I see a mid ground. I see switch successor coming only in 2024 and switch having a 110 to 130M total sales.