Forums - Politics Discussion - Is Bidens campaign dead? (EDIT: Well, this was turned around completely.)

Is Biden's campaign no longer viable?

Yes, his campaign is dead! 30 46.88%
 
His campaign is badly hur... 13 20.31%
 
He will take a small hit,... 5 7.81%
 
No, this result will not hurt his campaign. 7 10.94%
 
Donald Trump will win the democratic primary! 9 14.06%
 
Total:64
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Mnementh said:

I think electoral college might fall in time, whoever wins the White House and congress:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

For those who don't want to read all this and prefer a good, informative video on NaPoVoInterCo (as CPD Grey puts it):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUX-frlNBJY

Frankly, I've always thought this was unconstitutional.  I mean, states are free to apportion their electors any way they want.  But they are NOT free to enter into compacts with one another.  It's expressly forbidden in Article I: Section 10: Clause 3.  Any complaints that states can make some limited agreements with each other would be swept aside by the fact that they would be colluding to alter the method that the president is chosen.

Anyway I suspect the whole thing would fall apart as soon as someone cheated, which probably wouldn't take long.  Also, keep an eye on the Supreme Court this summer.  They've taken two cases that will determine whether a state can compel an elector to cast a vote a certain way or remove them if they vote wrong.  If they declare that a state can't do that (which I strongly suspect they will), then the compact becomes a LOT more difficult to enforce.



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DarthJarvis said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Well, keep in mind Bernie has to share with Warren, Yang, Tulsi and, to a lesser degree, Steyer, so he'snot getting all the progessive votes for himself either. I'd say it's pretty balanced right now between the moderate and progressive camp, the main difference is that the moderates are all around 10-15% while Bernie is clearly leading in the progressive camp.

I named Warren, and other than her they stole a total of 0 delegates between all of them. Those you listed just have no foothold or buzz. 

If you're going based on delegates than the two factions are dead even with 20 between Warren and Sanders and 20 between Pete, Biden, and Klobuchar. So where are you getting the idea that more people would like to vote for the moderates than the progressives?



...

Not yet, I hear he has way more blacks than the competition. Top notch positioning right there.

Joking aside, yeah. He's done after saying that.



 

DarthJarvis said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Well, keep in mind Bernie has to share with Warren, Yang, Tulsi and, to a lesser degree, Steyer, so he'snot getting all the progessive votes for himself either. I'd say it's pretty balanced right now between the moderate and progressive camp, the main difference is that the moderates are all around 10-15% while Bernie is clearly leading in the progressive camp.

I named Warren, and other than her they stole a total of 0 delegates between all of them. Those you listed just have no foothold or buzz. 

Yang does somewhat, which should result in some delegates in bigger states, and Steyer is pretty big in Nevada and South Carolina (especially SC, where he's second in the polls behind Biden). So while they had little to no effect in Iowa, they certainly can and will have a much bigger effect in other states.



I don't think so but only time will tell. I don't believe Dems are going to win the White House in 2020 regardless of who wins the Democrat primary anyway.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
DarthJarvis said:

I named Warren, and other than her they stole a total of 0 delegates between all of them. Those you listed just have no foothold or buzz. 

Yang does somewhat, which should result in some delegates in bigger states, and Steyer is pretty big in Nevada and South Carolina (especially SC, where he's second in the polls behind Biden). So while they had little to no effect in Iowa, they certainly can and will have a much bigger effect in other states.

You're probably right moving forward. Well have to see.



Torillian said:
DarthJarvis said:

I named Warren, and other than her they stole a total of 0 delegates between all of them. Those you listed just have no foothold or buzz. 

If you're going based on delegates than the two factions are dead even with 20 between Warren and Sanders and 20 between Pete, Biden, and Klobuchar. So where are you getting the idea that more people would like to vote for the moderates than the progressives?

Bernie notoriously over performs in caucuses. After NH and Vermont he'll be finishing 3rd pretty substantially 



DarthJarvis said:
Torillian said:

If you're going based on delegates than the two factions are dead even with 20 between Warren and Sanders and 20 between Pete, Biden, and Klobuchar. So where are you getting the idea that more people would like to vote for the moderates than the progressives?

Bernie notoriously over performs in caucuses. After NH and Vermont he'll be finishing 3rd pretty substantially. Which makes complete sense. It's about bullying people to vote for your candidate. The more vocal more dedicated supporters will benefit. 



DarthJarvis said:
Torillian said:

If you're going based on delegates than the two factions are dead even with 20 between Warren and Sanders and 20 between Pete, Biden, and Klobuchar. So where are you getting the idea that more people would like to vote for the moderates than the progressives?

Bernie notoriously over performs in caucuses. After NH and Vermont he'll be finishing 3rd pretty substantially 

We'll just have to wait and see, I personally think he's got a decent shot at this point: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/



...

Torillian said:
DarthJarvis said:

Bernie notoriously over performs in caucuses. After NH and Vermont he'll be finishing 3rd pretty substantially 

We'll just have to wait and see, I personally think he's got a decent shot at this point: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

He's definitely up from before Iowa. Living in SC, he is going to get 2nd definitely. Only competition is Biden (who will get the most delegates here) and Warren (who is trailing). Buttegeig won't do anything here.