Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Results (Switch 52.48m, Pokemon 16m)

RolStoppable said:
Marth said:
https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1222791103742607360/photo/1

Switch continues doing really well.

Through twelve fiscal quarters:

Switch - 52.48m
PS4 - 47.4m

The PS4 shipped 20.1m in the following four fiscal quarters, so Switch must do 15m+ to stay ahead through four years. Doable, despite the upcoming ~2m in January to March 2020.

RolStoppable said:
trunkswd said:
I've adjusted up our Switch sales to be more in line with the shipment figures. Before there was a difference of over 2.5 million. It is now around 2 million.

That seems completely unnecessary. Nintendo's forecast for the rest of the fiscal year (19.5m for the year, so 1.76m to go) makes it clear that there's quite a bit of excess stock after the holiday quarter, so the previous 2.5m gap you had was going to correct itself naturally to a more sensible gap between LTD shipments and sell-through. January to March 2020 is poised to have higher sell-through than shipments.

Please, tell me you're joking. We both know nintendo doesn't expect such low numbers.



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trunkswd said:
RolStoppable said:

That seems completely unnecessary. Nintendo's forecast for the rest of the fiscal year (19.5m for the year, so 1.76m to go) makes it clear that there's quite a bit of excess stock after the holiday quarter, so the previous 2.5m gap you had was going to correct itself naturally to a more sensible gap between LTD shipments and sell-through. January to March 2020 is poised to have higher sell-through than shipments.

There were plenty of reports of it hard to find the standard Switch towards the end of the holidays. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo ends up shipping 20 million by the end of the fiscal year. 

This Quarter I'd say we're pretty likely to see around 4m sold-through, with a 1.76m forecast it seems pretty clear that there's a lot of excess stock as Rol says. Sure Nintendo will likely exceed their forecast but they'll have to by quite a bit, because otherwise we'd be looking at 54m sold-through to 54.24m shipped by March 31st. 

At 20m shipped this FY it'd still be 54m sold to 54.74m shipped, very close.

VGC figures for January almost exceed the quarter forecast shipment already.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Pokemon beyond what I expected. not bad
Seems only mario odyssey wont get to 20M among the 16M cluster. Time for a sequel?
expected 7M from mario maker and 3.5 from fire emblem. they slowed more than I thought.
the rest kinda expected.



Nu-13 said:
RolStoppable said:

Through twelve fiscal quarters:

Switch - 52.48m
PS4 - 47.4m

The PS4 shipped 20.1m in the following four fiscal quarters, so Switch must do 15m+ to stay ahead through four years. Doable, despite the upcoming ~2m in January to March 2020.

RolStoppable said:

That seems completely unnecessary. Nintendo's forecast for the rest of the fiscal year (19.5m for the year, so 1.76m to go) makes it clear that there's quite a bit of excess stock after the holiday quarter, so the previous 2.5m gap you had was going to correct itself naturally to a more sensible gap between LTD shipments and sell-through. January to March 2020 is poised to have higher sell-through than shipments.

Please, tell me you're joking. We both know nintendo doesn't expect such low numbers.

What I know is that you don't know how much I know.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Barkley said:
trunkswd said:

There were plenty of reports of it hard to find the standard Switch towards the end of the holidays. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo ends up shipping 20 million by the end of the fiscal year. 

This Quarter I'd say we're pretty likely to see around 4m sold-through, with a 1.76m forecast it seems pretty clear that there's a lot of excess stock as Rol says. Sure Nintendo will likely exceed their forecast but they'll have to by quite a bit, because otherwise we'd be looking at 54m sold-through to 54.24m shipped by March 31st. 

At 20m shipped this FY it'd still be 54m sold to 54.74m shipped, very close.

VGC figures for January almost exceed the quarter forecast shipment already.

Funny. Not gonna happen.



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Nu-13 said:
Barkley said:

This Quarter I'd say we're pretty likely to see around 4m sold-through, with a 1.76m forecast it seems pretty clear that there's a lot of excess stock as Rol says. Sure Nintendo will likely exceed their forecast but they'll have to by quite a bit, because otherwise we'd be looking at 54m sold-through to 54.24m shipped by March 31st. 

At 20m shipped this FY it'd still be 54m sold to 54.74m shipped, very close.

VGC figures for January almost exceed the quarter forecast shipment already.

Funny. Not gonna happen.

Indeed, 4m sell-through is definitely too optimistic.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

jonathanalis said:
Pokemon beyond what I expected. not bad
Seems only mario odyssey wont get to 20M among the 16M cluster. Time for a sequel?
expected 7M from mario maker and 3.5 from fire emblem. they slowed more than I thought.
the rest kinda expected.

Odyssey actually sold better this quarter than the same quarter last year, so 20 million isn't too far out of reach.



pikashoe said:
jonathanalis said:
Pokemon beyond what I expected. not bad
Seems only mario odyssey wont get to 20M among the 16M cluster. Time for a sequel?
expected 7M from mario maker and 3.5 from fire emblem. they slowed more than I thought.
the rest kinda expected.

Odyssey actually sold better this quarter than the same quarter last year, so 20 million isn't too far out of reach.

2017 Shipments = 9.07m
2018 Shipments = 4.69m
2019 Shipments = 2.83m

Yeah I expect it should be able to pass 20m with another 3 years, only 3.41m to go.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

pikashoe said:
jonathanalis said:
Pokemon beyond what I expected. not bad
Seems only mario odyssey wont get to 20M among the 16M cluster. Time for a sequel?
expected 7M from mario maker and 3.5 from fire emblem. they slowed more than I thought.
the rest kinda expected.

Odyssey actually sold better this quarter than the same quarter last year, so 20 million isn't too far out of reach.

No, it didn't do better. 1.59m in 2018, 1.21m in 2019. That's in line with the ongoing decline.

But it's at 16.59m already, so it's only a question of when it reaches 20m. It won't be in 2020 because its legs won't allow for more than 2.5m this year, so it will take until the second half of 2021 at least.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

I think we overestimate the Q4 shipments mainly because we all have Animal Crossing in mind, but since it releases at the second part of March, it’s effect on the baseline should be more important in the following quarter.

Or maybe I’m just wrong.