Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Results (Switch 52.48m, Pokemon 16m)

Barkley said:

But if they have a lot of units on shelves it makes some sense I guess.

I think they know their bussiness best. I'm kinda happy with it, it may lead to Switch Pro this year.



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Barkley said:
JRPGfan said:

Graphics improvements sell games...... being stuck on 3DS, alot of people wanted to see a pokemon game running at better resolutions ect.
Same thing could happend with Switch 2, if the jump visually is big enough.

I think it has more to do with combined home/handheld tbh. Switch is taking series sales to new heights, and I don't think that can be simply put down to graphics. After all, every previous generation has been a "graphics improvement".

It's combined sales of people who mainly game on TV and people who mainly game handheld.

from this:

To this:

Its a huge improvement.
Even if pokemon still has ALOTs of room to grow in, visually.

You cannot give all the Pokemon success due to higher quality of the game, or that the Switch is just selling well.
Alot of people were tired of Pokemon being stuck on 3DS and running low resolutions, and wanted a better looking game.

Thats probably the main "boost" this pokemon game got imo.



Barkley said:

So should ship about 20.5m this FY. ~55.2m shipped

My prediction of 22m when they announced the Switch Lite was a little too enthusiastic.

Edit: Just saw Nintendo's revised forecast of 19.5m for the year...

But shipping just 1.76m units in Q4? Last year they shipped 2.47m, that would be down considerably YoY which seems insane.

But if they have a lot of units on shelves it makes some sense I guess.

The numbers shipped should be way over last years' final quarter, i'd say at least 3.47, what with Animal crossing coming. There's not many OG Switches at all sitting on store shelves, just lites. So hopefully Nintendo get the balance right when shipping for this quarter. Your prediction of 22m shipped may be perhaps optimistic but 21m+ seems possible if not likely.



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curl-6 said:
Mario Kart 8: 22.96m
Smash: 17.68m
Mario Odyssey:  16.59m
BOTW: 16.34m
Pokemon Sword/Shield: 16.06m
Pokemon Let's Go: 11.76m
Splatoon 2: 9.81m
Mario Party: 9.12m
NSMBUD: 5.85M
Luigi's Mansion 3: 5.37m
Mario Maker 2: 5.08m
Link's Awakening: 4.19m
Fire Emblem Three Houses: 2.58m
Ring Fit Adventure: 2.17m
Astral Chain: 1.03m
Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: 1.02m

God dang. Those numbers are insane.
Nintendo knows how to make best selling games.



Looks like a gap of about 2.5 million for the Switch between Nintendo's shipment figures and VGChartz sell-through estimates. I did adjust the Switch the other day to be in line with the NPD leaks and with Famitsu our Japan sales should be fine. If we have figures a bit low it would most likely be in Europe and/or China.

I'll be adjusting up Switch sales a bit for the holiday period in Europe and mainland Asia. 

Last edited by trunkswd - on 30 January 2020

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I'm glad Astral Chain crossed the million barrier especially as a new IP and debut for the games director.

On another note BOTW'S total with the new numbers is 18m plus.



peachbuggy said:
Barkley said:

So should ship about 20.5m this FY. ~55.2m shipped

My prediction of 22m when they announced the Switch Lite was a little too enthusiastic.

Edit: Just saw Nintendo's revised forecast of 19.5m for the year...

But shipping just 1.76m units in Q4? Last year they shipped 2.47m, that would be down considerably YoY which seems insane.

But if they have a lot of units on shelves it makes some sense I guess.

The numbers shipped should be way over last years' final quarter, i'd say at least 3.47, what with Animal crossing coming. There's not many OG Switches at all sitting on store shelves, just lites. So hopefully Nintendo get the balance right when shipping for this month. Your prediction of 22m shipped may be perhaps optimistic but 21m+ seems possible if not likely.

Nintendo are terrible at forecasting, their 18m forecast was obviously too low from the moment they released it, just as their 20m forecast the year before was obviously too high to everyone except them.

That being said I don't see any situation where they ship literally double their forecast for the next quarter. It's a short-term forecast now they can't be THAT wrong. I could maybe see them shipping 2.5m compared to the 1.76m forecast, but any more then that would be really pushing it imo.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Barkley said:
JRPGfan said:

Graphics improvements sell games...... being stuck on 3DS, alot of people wanted to see a pokemon game running at better resolutions ect.
Same thing could happend with Switch 2, if the jump visually is big enough.

I think it has more to do with combined home/handheld tbh. Switch is taking series sales to new heights, and I don't think that can be simply put down to graphics. After all, every previous generation has been a "graphics improvement".

It's combined sales of people who mainly game on TV and people who mainly game handheld.

For Pokémon specifically, you can assign a sales boost due to a proper 3D world. That's something that has also occured for Super Mario 64 and Ocarina of Time, hence why neither Super Mario Galaxy and Twilight Princess benefited much from the Wii's much bigger installed base. Of course it needs to be noted that 3D Mario resulted in a very different game than 2D Mario, so if they were considered the same, Super Mario suffered a severe decline with Super Mario 64. But a turn-based RPG like Pokémon can only benefit from the move to 3D because the gameplay remains the same while the world feels grander; that's why we'll see Sword/Shield go easily past 20m despite a lacking technical execution. More detailed graphics and higher resolutions won't have the same Wow effect, hence the Galaxy and Twilight Princess sales. So better graphics aren't going to make Pokémon sell better in the future either.

This obviously leaves the question why a game like Super Mario Odyssey can do so much better then. The increasing game development costs of the past decade have led to a decrease in the number of big budget games across all consoles, so as a result the big games have gotten bigger on all consoles because there are fewer games that can compete on the highest level.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

We could effectively have a top 5 of 20m sellers by the end of this year.



Barkley said:
peachbuggy said:

The numbers shipped should be way over last years' final quarter, i'd say at least 3.47, what with Animal crossing coming. There's not many OG Switches at all sitting on store shelves, just lites. So hopefully Nintendo get the balance right when shipping for this month. Your prediction of 22m shipped may be perhaps optimistic but 21m+ seems possible if not likely.

Nintendo are terrible at forecasting, their 18m forecast was obviously too low from the moment they released it, just as their 20m forecast the year before was obviously too high to everyone except them.

That being said I don't see any situation where they ship literally double their forecast for the next quarter. It's a short-term forecast now they can't be THAT wrong. I could maybe see them shipping 2.5m compared to the 1.76m forecast, but any more then that would be really pushing it imo.

Well I would agree normally but 1.yes they are terrible at predicting and 2.i don't see Animal Crossing being anything less than massive and I believe it will force Nintendo to ship more than they had otherwise planned. Undershipping on a major games' release could have negative affects on them, especially from those who intend to buy a Switch specifically for said game. There should be no way this quarter shipments should be down on last years' with such a big game releasing in it. At this point, I think Nintendo want to knowingly smash their forecasts to look good in the shareholders' eyes. Just my thoughts on it though.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!