So we are only at a few hours, let's see how accurate we are.

As for reminder (reds are only my predictions)

10.0m, because the hybrid SKU has been in short supply in a few countries right before and after Christmas, plus the initial shipment for the Lite in fiscal Q2 was big. After I had posted a response to you in the Famitsu thread, I realized that 10.5m is actually pushing it.

UK actually, which is like 5% of Nintendo's market. So I imagine still a 10.5 + an unexpected half million for China...Or is this too crazy for China ?

Parts of the USA were also low on stock; whatever shipments they got in quickly sold through.

And yes, 500k is too much for China. The console launched with one game there, so it was an unusual launch of the kind that doesn't necessitate a big initial shipment.

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
• Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
• Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
• The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
• Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
• Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
• Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
• Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
• Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
• Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows

So for you SMM2 doesn't beat NSMPU...

Switch has sold 100k units in China by December 31th if I'm not wrong

Doesn't really answer your last post but I am just seeing right now that some massive adjustments up has been done here for the few big weeks of December and the first of January.

EDIT : actually the whole FY2020 has lost 250.000 units compared to numbers I had before. So with this I believe that 11 millions is really too far now.

For now, no. They're too far away each other according to last quarter results. Though in the future I see SMM2 beating NSMBUD

Quite a few optimistic predictions you have there. MK8D, SSBU, SMO, BotW and Let's Go are all older games where you overestimate their legs. Luigi's Mansion 3 is at least a couple of millions too high and Ring Fit Adventure is the worst offender because it should have 2.0-2.5m at most. On the other hand, Sword/Shield seems a bit too low while Super Mario Party is definitely too low. SMP did 1.2m in the first half of this fiscal year, so 0.6m per quarter; its holiday quarter isn't going to be worse than that.

Splatoon 2, NSMBU and SMM2 look okay, although I'd expect NSMBU to do better than SMM2.