Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo switch shipment prediction for FY2020 Q3

How many million Switch unit Nintendo will have shiped

Less than 9,4... :( 2 8.70%
 
9,4 - 9,8 0 0.00%
 
9,8 - 10,2 2 8.70%
 
10,2 - 10,6 8 34.78%
 
10,6 - 11 6 26.09%
 
11 - 11,4 4 17.39%
 
11,4 - 11,8 1 4.35%
 
11,8 - 12,2 0 0.00%
 
12,2 - 12,6 0 0.00%
 
More !!! 0 0.00%
 
Total:23

So we are only at a few hours, let's see how accurate we are.

As for reminder (reds are only my predictions)

Last edited by Amnesia - on 29 January 2020

Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

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10.0m, because the hybrid SKU has been in short supply in a few countries right before and after Christmas, plus the initial shipment for the Lite in fiscal Q2 was big. After I had posted a response to you in the Famitsu thread, I realized that 10.5m is actually pushing it.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
10.0m, because the hybrid SKU has been in short supply in a few countries right before and after Christmas, plus the initial shipment for the Lite in fiscal Q2 was big. After I had posted a response to you in the Famitsu thread, I realized that 10.5m is actually pushing it.

UK actually, which is like 5% of Nintendo's market. So I imagine still a 10.5 + an unexpected half million for China...Or is this too crazy for China ?



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Amnesia said:
RolStoppable said:
10.0m, because the hybrid SKU has been in short supply in a few countries right before and after Christmas, plus the initial shipment for the Lite in fiscal Q2 was big. After I had posted a response to you in the Famitsu thread, I realized that 10.5m is actually pushing it.

UK actually, which is like 5% of Nintendo's market. So I imagine still a 10.5 + an unexpected half million for China...Or is this too crazy for China ?

Parts of the USA were also low on stock; whatever shipments they got in quickly sold through.

And yes, 500k is too much for China. The console launched with one game there, so it was an unusual launch of the kind that doesn't necessitate a big initial shipment.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows



Zanark best Inazuma Eleven pg

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AlbiNecroxz said:

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows

So for you SMM2 doesn't beat NSMPU...



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Amnesia said:
RolStoppable said:
10.0m, because the hybrid SKU has been in short supply in a few countries right before and after Christmas, plus the initial shipment for the Lite in fiscal Q2 was big. After I had posted a response to you in the Famitsu thread, I realized that 10.5m is actually pushing it.

UK actually, which is like 5% of Nintendo's market. So I imagine still a 10.5 + an unexpected half million for China...Or is this too crazy for China ?

Switch has sold 100k units in China by December 31th if I'm not wrong



Zanark best Inazuma Eleven pg

RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

UK actually, which is like 5% of Nintendo's market. So I imagine still a 10.5 + an unexpected half million for China...Or is this too crazy for China ?

Parts of the USA were also low on stock; whatever shipments they got in quickly sold through.

And yes, 500k is too much for China. The console launched with one game there, so it was an unusual launch of the kind that doesn't necessitate a big initial shipment.

Doesn't really answer your last post but I am just seeing right now that some massive adjustments up has been done here for the few big weeks of December and the first of January.

EDIT : actually the whole FY2020 has lost 250.000 units compared to numbers I had before. So with this I believe that 11 millions is really too far now.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 29 January 2020

Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Amnesia said:
AlbiNecroxz said:

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows

So for you SMM2 doesn't beat NSMPU...

For now, no. They're too far away each other according to last quarter results. Though in the future I see SMM2 beating NSMBUD



Zanark best Inazuma Eleven pg

AlbiNecroxz said:

I made a prediction for top 10 Switch Games, first number is units sold in Q4, second one is LTD units sales:

  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 3.5m -> 22.6m
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2.5m -> 18.2m
  • Super Mario Odyssey 1.5m -> 16.9m
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.3m -> 16.8m
  • Pokemon Sword and Shield 14.5m NEW
  • Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu!/ Eevee! 500k -> 11.8m
  • Splatoon 2 450k -> 9.74m
  • Luigi's Mansion 3 8.7m NEW
  • Super Mario Party 550k -> 8.1m
  • Ring Fit Adventure 6.4m NEW

New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 800k -> 5.4m
Super Mario Maker 2 900k -> 4.8m

The latter two I'm not sure they will be updated, but who knows

Quite a few optimistic predictions you have there. MK8D, SSBU, SMO, BotW and Let's Go are all older games where you overestimate their legs. Luigi's Mansion 3 is at least a couple of millions too high and Ring Fit Adventure is the worst offender because it should have 2.0-2.5m at most. On the other hand, Sword/Shield seems a bit too low while Super Mario Party is definitely too low. SMP did 1.2m in the first half of this fiscal year, so 0.6m per quarter; its holiday quarter isn't going to be worse than that.

Splatoon 2, NSMBU and SMM2 look okay, although I'd expect NSMBU to do better than SMM2.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club