Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 78 47.85%
 
No, but I will be followi... 49 30.06%
 
No, its being overblown 36 22.09%
 
Total:163
SvennoJ said:
John2290 said:

It won't infect everyone but if it ifected, it'd be more along the lines of the Flu but if even that its 300k dead before the summer and as so many flu cases go unreported the figure could easily double. The high end is about one million in modern times but if this was say, 1920, it's be twenty times that, but who knows, maybe with a cripppled health system it could reach it's 3% potential and that would be the greatest catastrophy in human history. 

It could.

The plague killed about 25 million over centuries on a world population of about 500 million.
In 1918 the Spanish Flu killed 20 to 50 million people, around 500 million infected on a world population of about 1.7 billion.
WW2 killed 75 million people of about 2.4 billion.

Today we have around 7.7 billion people.
With a low estimate of 2% deaths out of 40% infected, 62 million, high estimate of 5% deaths out of 70% infected, 270 million.
That is, if it can't be contained long enough to find better ways to increase survival odds.

Another problem is that it can become like the flu, going round and round until it can be eliminated by successful vaccines like measles etc.

Indeed it could but it's highly unlikely with modern technology for information and obviously better medicine and knowledge. We'd really have to fuck up badly for it to get that bad. It'll be interesting to see how countries can manage something this bad and like I said maybe it will cripple the whole damn thing enough for the worst to happen but for my own sanity I have to believe we are advanced enough at this point to manage something on the scale of the spanish flu and reduce the impact to a fraction. A vaccine will come far, far sooner than any in time in the past, including just a decade ago with the H1N1 scare. Fingers crossed cause if tens of millions die it will fuck us bad for the next half decade, some third world countries would be totally obliterated. 



 

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John2290 said:

Indeed it could but it's highly unlikely with modern technology for information and obviously better medicine and knowledge. We'd really have to fuck up badly for it to get that bad. It'll be interesting to see how countries can manage something this bad and like I said maybe it will cripple the whole damn thing enough for the worst to happen but for my own sanity I have to believe we are advanced enough at this point to manage something on the scale of the spanish flu and reduce the impact to a fraction. A vaccine will come far, far sooner than any in time in the past, including just a decade ago with the H1N1 scare. Fingers crossed cause if tens of millions die it will fuck us bad for the next half decade, some third world countries would be totally obliterated. 

The experts don't share the same faith though. Testing all arriving passengers (2.7 million airline passengers daily) is beyond our modern capabilities and no one wants to shut the borders down since the economy is more important.

18 months is already a very optimistic estimate to assemble a vaccine that then still has to be mass produced and distributed, while convincing the anti vaxxers as well. The WHO is doing a great job so far but the odds are heavily stacked against them.

Meanwhile the commercials to promote cheap holidays continue as usual, the economy comes first. I wonder if Trump is going to downplay the whole thing tonight and just spout some of the usual usa is great nonsense.

With an incubation period of 2 to 14 days, let's say a week before getting contagious and only infecting 2 others, it would take 33 weeks for one case to turn into 8 billion. 95% of people will be all right, but yep, it can get ugly. Slowing it down is the current strategy.



SvennoJ said:
John2290 said:

Indeed it could but it's highly unlikely with modern technology for information and obviously better medicine and knowledge. We'd really have to fuck up badly for it to get that bad. It'll be interesting to see how countries can manage something this bad and like I said maybe it will cripple the whole damn thing enough for the worst to happen but for my own sanity I have to believe we are advanced enough at this point to manage something on the scale of the spanish flu and reduce the impact to a fraction. A vaccine will come far, far sooner than any in time in the past, including just a decade ago with the H1N1 scare. Fingers crossed cause if tens of millions die it will fuck us bad for the next half decade, some third world countries would be totally obliterated. 

The experts don't share the same faith though. Testing all arriving passengers (2.7 million airline passengers daily) is beyond our modern capabilities and no one wants to shut the borders down since the economy is more important.

18 months is already a very optimistic estimate to assemble a vaccine that then still has to be mass produced and distributed, while convincing the anti vaxxers as well. The WHO is doing a great job so far but the odds are heavily stacked against them.

Meanwhile the commercials to promote cheap holidays continue as usual, the economy comes first. I wonder if Trump is going to downplay the whole thing tonight and just spout some of the usual usa is great nonsense.

With an incubation period of 2 to 14 days, let's say a week before getting contagious and only infecting 2 others, it would take 33 weeks for one case to turn into 8 billion. 95% of people will be all right, but yep, it can get ugly. Slowing it down is the current strategy.

Are you sure it's 18 months? I've been reading 9 months with 3 months for mass production...



 

No need to worry about Iran guys.
A senior official says that their religious sites can cure the illness so more people should visit.



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numberwang said:

CrazyGamer was canned because he was too skeptical about the virus?

I still believe this virus is hitting Asians, in particular Chinese much harder than any other race of people. 90% of the infected have fever and 5% die which is way beyond what we see outside of China / ethnic Chinese people.

Results: 9 studies were included in Meta-analysis, including a total of 50404 patients with 2019-nCoV infection... the incidence of fever is 90.9% , the incidence of cough is 70.8%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue is 41%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%, the proportion of severe cases in all infected cases was 21.3%, and the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1

Seems like Italians and the Aryans in Iran aren't faring as well as East Asians.

Iran - 16/95
Italy - 11/323

S.Korea - 12/1146
China - 27/780 (00s)
Japan - 1/161
Singapore - 0/91

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 26 February 2020

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it started in China that's why Asians got hit first



Yes but you should consider that in Iran the situation is worse than what is said in statistics, instead in Italy the Covid-19 infected an hospital in which there were many terminally ill patients... in general all hit nations are working well against this virus.



John2290 said:
SvennoJ said:

The experts don't share the same faith though. Testing all arriving passengers (2.7 million airline passengers daily) is beyond our modern capabilities and no one wants to shut the borders down since the economy is more important.

18 months is already a very optimistic estimate to assemble a vaccine that then still has to be mass produced and distributed, while convincing the anti vaxxers as well. The WHO is doing a great job so far but the odds are heavily stacked against them.

Meanwhile the commercials to promote cheap holidays continue as usual, the economy comes first. I wonder if Trump is going to downplay the whole thing tonight and just spout some of the usual usa is great nonsense.

With an incubation period of 2 to 14 days, let's say a week before getting contagious and only infecting 2 others, it would take 33 weeks for one case to turn into 8 billion. 95% of people will be all right, but yep, it can get ugly. Slowing it down is the current strategy.

Are you sure it's 18 months? I've been reading 9 months with 3 months for mass production...

https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/25/21153035/coronavirus-response-trump-vaccine-covid19-cdc-who-health-crisis
"The CDC estimates that a vaccine for the new coronavirus is unlikely to be available in the next 12-18 months, far too late to be useful in preventing an outbreak in the US.”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.htmlhttps://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html
"But even when proceeding at an "emergency speed," a vaccine would not be available for use for at least a year or 18 months"

Early tests start in April, if all goes well (it actually works with few negative side effects), it will still be at least a year.


Some estimates say that the Coronovirus could peak as soon as May in China (40% of the population infected)
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00361-5
(That was over a week ago, the optimistic scenario seems done for atm)
Since it's already going on for 2 months there, 5 to 6 months for the virus to peak in the rest of the world is possible.

Whether or not to start calling it pandemic
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00551-1
"But other scientists say the surge in international cases marks a tipping point in the 2-month-old outbreak. “Whatever WHO says, I think the epidemiological conditions for a pandemic are met,” says Marc Lipsitch, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, Massachusetts. “Under almost any reasonable definition of pandemic, there’s now evidence of it happening.”


This is pretty worrying as well, apparently tests are not perfect either, they were cleared to leave

  • 4 new cases in Hong Kong: 2 of which from the Diamond Princess cruise ship: [source]
    - a 21-year-old woman who had a fever on board the ship on Feb. 12 and was fine afterwards.
    - a 16-year-old man (youngest confirmed patient to date in Hong Kong) who had runny nose on the ship on Feb. 17 and is currently hospitalized at Queen Mary Hospital.
  • 1 new case in Australia is a former passenger of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. 8 of the 23 cases in Australia had been on the ship. [source]
    3 new cases in the United States: 2 from the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 26 February 2020

Yep as I thought, he's downplaying it. USA is great, they'll stop it.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/26/809578063/trump-to-address-response-to-coronavirus
They're very ready, vaccine is coming, at a low level, only 1 or 2 people over the next period of time.
USA is rated nr 1 for being prepared.

CDC is kissing presedential ass, situation contained for now, but expects to see more cases, be prepared for a broader response.

Now it's about funding.

Next speaker, now is a good time to prepare.

Nr of prototype vaccines available, one test candidate to begin testing in about 2 months, 3  months to determine if its safe (45 people), then a month to manufacture for bigger trial 6 to 8 months (100k people). Year to a year and a half before viable vaccine for all.

Quite feasible the virus will spread, but it will also cycle like the flu, thus vaccine will be needed for the future.

And Trump is back to downplaying and blaming other countries lol.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 26 February 2020

Pyro as Bill said:
numberwang said:

Seems like Italians and the Aryans in Iran aren't faring as well as East Asians.

Iran - 16/95
Italy - 11/323

S.Korea - 12/1146
China - 27/780 (00s)
Japan - 1/161
Singapore - 0/91

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

By default, more critical cases are detected first. China had 30 deaths or so with ~ 300 confirmed cases.