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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Bofferbrauer2 on 27 April 2020
JRPGfan said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfeehhhfiVk



Do these people not understand that gathering in large crowds, to protest, results in a week or two lateron, a massive increased spread of the virus?
Which in turn, means the lockdown time, will be prolonged?

I think you just answered your own question



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Phoenix20 on 27 April 2020

There is no perfect model or strategy to combat a Global Pandemic.
Comparing one country to another country is pointless.
A long recession is a huge financial cost to pay to minimise the loss of lives. The economic crisis will create a high rate of bankruptcies, huge loss of jobs and many business failures. 

Last edited by Phoenix20 - on 27 April 2020

SvennoJ on 27 April 2020
JRPGfan said:
John2290 said:
Fuck, just realised Russia's numbers, wow that came out of nowhere. Probably bad news for northern China if they haven't closed the boarder there and if they have that's another blow to their economy and that of the ruskies.

Yep russia was fine for along time, then suddenly they saw like +8000-6000 daily increases, and in like a week or two, climbed up to where it currently is.
Spread doesnt appear to be slowing there yet either, its basically only just resently really kicked off.

I saw a video of a russian, that went to china, lived under the lockdown there, and came back home to russia.
He was like "are we really in lockdown? howcome it doesnt look or feel like it to me?"
He live streamed, walking around in his town, showing how no one seemingly did anything to limit spread.

Most people are just stupid, and only start to "act" when they can clearly see the results, of inaction.
The buggering of this virus is that it takes a week or two, before symptoms start to show (another week before you need hospital, and another week to die to it).
Deaths can potentially lag like a month after infections. So the spread of today, is the deaths of people a month from now.

Which means, at that point the results can be horrendous, without you even noticeing it.
When you do, its already had a few weeks of spread, and even lockdowns arnt always that fast to reduce spread.

Thanks to the new data from Google and Apple we can test these anecdotes.

Unfortunately or perhaps fortunate for Russians, Google doesn't have cell phone tracking data for Russia. Yet the Apple data does show something:

A steep decline at the end of March, and at about April 18th Russia's curve flattens.
March 27th Russia crossed the 200 cases per day on a steep climb which flattens on April 18th after reaching 4900 reported daily.
A daily increase of 1.16x between March 27th and April 18th (which is about R0 2.2) then from April 18th to today it's down to 1.02x per day, currently at some 5500 cases per day. People are limiting the spread.

To debunk Sweden not doing anything:

Google does have the data for Sweden

So yep also in Stockholm, far less traffic to stores, restaurants and workplaces.

It's to a much lesser degree than London though

The UK started late when things were already up, waiting until March 24th to give the general lock down order when there were already over 60 deaths reported daily. Sweden was and is much lower, yet the curve is flat for the UK atm while still slowly rising for Sweden.


Comparing to Ontario Canada

We're less on lock down than the UK, but more than Sweden.


Growth factors for the past 14 days: (increase in 2 weeks)

Sweden: 1.25x daily reported cases, 1.27x reported deaths
UK: 0.82x daily reported cases, 0.80x reported deaths
Ontario: 1.20x daily reported cases, 1.65x reported deaths

Past 7 days (difference with one week ago)

Sweden: 1.15x daily reported cases, 0.83 reported deaths
UK: 0.86x daily reported cases, 0.86 reported deaths
Ontario: 0.96x daily reported cases, 0.95x reported deaths

Not much of a surprise, bigger response, bigger result.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 27 April 2020

Phoenix20 on 27 April 2020

Sweden approach makes the most logical sense and is sustainable.
The only area they messed up was not locking away old people
Most of the death tallies have been old people and cocooning the old people and limiting their visits may be the best approach.
Why not just lock down the old people and business as usual for the young fit healthy people?

Last edited by Phoenix20 - on 27 April 2020

SvennoJ on 27 April 2020
Phoenix20 said:

Sweden approach makes the most logical sense and is sustainable.
The only area they messed up was not locking away old people
Most of the death tallies have been old people and cocooning the old people and limiting their visits may be the best approach.
Why not just lock down the old people and business as usual for the young fit healthy people?

Sweden hasn't flattened the curve yet though, it's still growing. Meanwhile their reported deaths are very erratic, the most irregular reporting in Europe. I don't know what the approach looks like on the ground, but at this rate it will have to be sustained much longer than countries that put bigger brakes on early and go back to opening business like Austria and Australia.



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Rab on 27 April 2020

New Zealand says it has stopped community transmission of Covid-19, effectively eliminating the virus. One country that has done it right, hopefully Australia will follow soon  

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52436658

The country brought in some of the toughest restrictions in the world on travel and activity early on in the pandemic, when it only had a few dozen cases.

It closed its borders, started enforcing quarantine of all arrivals in the country, brought in a stringent lockdown and mounted an extensive testing and contact tracing operation.

Beaches, waterfronts and playgrounds were shut on 26 March, as were offices and schools. Bars and restaurants were also closed, including for takeaway and delivery.

Ms Ardern said modelling indicated New Zealand could have had more than 1,000 cases a day if it had not brought in the lockdown so early.



kirby007 on 27 April 2020

Truth be told, our residents are shitting all over the "social lockdown", it wouldn't suprise me if we get that second wave anyway,



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SvennoJ on 27 April 2020
Rab said:

New Zealand says it has stopped community transmission of Covid-19, effectively eliminating the virus. One country that has done it right, hopefully Australia will follow soon  

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52436658

The country brought in some of the toughest restrictions in the world on travel and activity early on in the pandemic, when it only had a few dozen cases.

It closed its borders, started enforcing quarantine of all arrivals in the country, brought in a stringent lockdown and mounted an extensive testing and contact tracing operation.

Beaches, waterfronts and playgrounds were shut on 26 March, as were offices and schools. Bars and restaurants were also closed, including for takeaway and delivery.

Ms Ardern said modelling indicated New Zealand could have had more than 1,000 cases a day if it had not brought in the lockdown so early.

Smart and reflects in the data, huge response:
https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-17_NZ_Mobility_Report_en.pdf
Biggest response first to re-open. Only 19 deaths in New Zealand, well done.



SvennoJ on 27 April 2020
kirby007 said:
Truth be told, our residents are shitting all over the "social lockdown", it wouldn't suprise me if we get that second wave anyway,

Same here, mobility trends are creeping back up again.

In the Netherlands mobility was down 60% (walking and driving), currently down 40% driving, 35% walking.
Here in Ontario same thing, was down 60%, currently down 39% driving, 36% walking.

No wonder the way back down the hill takes so long. People get tired of the lock down, see the numbers slowing down and start going back out, hampering actually bringing the numbers down to a level where the economy can safely be restarted.



Mandalore76 on 27 April 2020
JRPGfan said:
Pemalite said:

Do you really think individuals who write signs that state: "COVID is a Lie" - Have the intellectual fortitude to comprehend their own idiotic hypocrisy?
No. No they do not. They are selfish idiots.

And most are probably Trump supporters as well considering Trump has tried to motivate people to protest with tweets like: "LIBERATE MINNESOTA!”

Looking at those signbords, what the hell is "dont be a snitch" supposed to mean?
Isnt that like when you rat on someone, breaking the law or doing something unlawfull? and tell on that person?

What has that got to do with the virus?

How can people be this stupid? it baffles the mind.

Maybe that's Chris Cuomo in the dinosaur suit.  He didn't take kindly to being called out for walking around outside while he was supposed to be in quarantine while infected with COVID-19.