Low kill rate and a global pandemic?
The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”
With its potent mix of characteristics, this virus is unlike most that capture popular attention: It is deadly, but not too deadly. It makes people sick, but not in predictable, uniquely identifiable ways.
Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care.
Side note: I got a package from China a week ago and got the sniffs for two days immediately. Maybe I have survived the plague?