If you want to use big data sets, use China's.
No country has been as strict as them with testing.
They meassure your temperature everytime you exit your apartment buildings, everytime you enter a shop, everytime you return ect.
Ontop of testing for the virus, everytime anyone had symptoms or fever.
This ofc means they "found" alot of sick people really early, and could treat them early.
They have a Mortality rate of over 4% currently.
Leaving aside that I don't trust China's numbers, they did reach a point where their hospitals were completely overwhelmed. After that, the mortality rate skyrockets.
So much about this depends on the stress to the system. As long as there are enough beds, equipment, and personnel, it's manageable in a "that's life" sort of tragedy. You reach beyond that point and it quickly becomes a horror show.
It's not just the healthcare system that gets overwhelmed. If 20% or more of the essential workforce gets too sick to work for a couple weeks we likely end up having a lot more problems. I have no idea what the redundancies are to keep the power on.
The higher death rate in Wuhan probably also has to do with early hospital transmission Hospital-associated transmission was suspected as the presumed mechanism of infection for affected health professionals (40 [29%]) and hospitalized patients (17 [12.3%]).
That happened a lot despite quarantine precautions. Italy has the same problem but Singapore and Hong Kong seem to handle it better
Meanwhile in Europe it's a real problem
Out of Spain’s 40,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, 5,400 — nearly 14 percent — are medical professionals, the health ministry said on Tuesday. No other country has reported health care staff accounting for a double-digit percentage of total infections.
But the problem is widespread throughout Europe. In Italy, France and Spain, more than 30 health care professionals have died of the coronavirus, and thousands of others have had to self-isolate.
In Brescia province, the center of Italy’s outbreak, 10 to 15 percent of doctors and nurses have been infected and put out of commission, according to a doctor there.
Patients that are already weakened are more at risk in hospitals where covid19 patients are sent to, and healthcare workers are even more at risk chipping away at the ability to cope with the outbreak.
So yep, flatten it as fast as possible. While hospitals fill up, the people that need to run them run out :/