Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 77 47.53%
 
No, but I will be followi... 49 30.25%
 
No, its being overblown 36 22.22%
 
Total:162
JRPGfan said:

*edit2:
If you want to use big data sets, use China's.
No country has been as strict as them with testing.

They meassure your temperature everytime you exit your apartment buildings, everytime you enter a shop, everytime you return ect.
Ontop of testing for the virus, everytime anyone had symptoms or fever.

This ofc means they "found" alot of sick people really early, and could treat them early.
They have a Mortality rate of over 4% currently.

Leaving aside that I don't trust China's numbers, they did reach a point where their hospitals were completely overwhelmed.  After that, the mortality rate skyrockets.

So much about this depends on the stress to the system.  As long as there are enough beds, equipment, and personnel, it's manageable in a "that's life" sort of tragedy.  You reach beyond that point and it quickly becomes a horror show.



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NightlyPoe said:
JRPGfan said:

*edit2:
If you want to use big data sets, use China's.
No country has been as strict as them with testing.

They meassure your temperature everytime you exit your apartment buildings, everytime you enter a shop, everytime you return ect.
Ontop of testing for the virus, everytime anyone had symptoms or fever.

This ofc means they "found" alot of sick people really early, and could treat them early.
They have a Mortality rate of over 4% currently.

Leaving aside that I don't trust China's numbers, they did reach a point where their hospitals were completely overwhelmed.  After that, the mortality rate skyrockets.

So much about this depends on the stress to the system.  As long as there are enough beds, equipment, and personnel, it's manageable in a "that's life" sort of tragedy.  You reach beyond that point and it quickly becomes a horror show.

It's not just the healthcare system that gets overwhelmed. If 20% or more of the essential workforce gets too sick to work for a couple weeks we likely end up having a lot more problems. I have no idea what the redundancies are to keep the power on.

The higher death rate in Wuhan probably also has to do with early hospital transmission Hospital-associated transmission was suspected as the presumed mechanism of infection for affected health professionals (40 [29%]) and hospitalized patients (17 [12.3%]).

That happened a lot despite quarantine precautions. Italy has the same problem but Singapore and Hong Kong seem to handle it better
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/keeping-the-coronavirus-from-infecting-health-care-workers

Meanwhile in Europe it's a real problem
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/world/europe/coronavirus-europe-covid-19.html

Out of Spain’s 40,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, 5,400 — nearly 14 percent — are medical professionals, the health ministry said on Tuesday. No other country has reported health care staff accounting for a double-digit percentage of total infections.

But the problem is widespread throughout Europe. In Italy, France and Spain, more than 30 health care professionals have died of the coronavirus, and thousands of others have had to self-isolate.

In Brescia province, the center of Italy’s outbreak, 10 to 15 percent of doctors and nurses have been infected and put out of commission, according to a doctor there.

Patients that are already weakened are more at risk in hospitals where covid19 patients are sent to, and healthcare workers are even more at risk chipping away at the ability to cope with the outbreak.

So yep, flatten it as fast as possible. While hospitals fill up, the people that need to run them run out :/



NightlyPoe said:
SpokenTruth said:

Do you mean the waves?  X is the number of dead from wave 1.  5x means it was 5 times worse.  Wave 3 was 2 times worse.

So 10 dead then 50 dead then 20 dead, for example.   That's how the Spanish Flu in 1918 hit. 

I know how waves work.  That's why I asked.  If you've already infected 70% of the population in the first wave, how do you multiply that by five?

Look at the Y axis.  That's deaths, not infections.

o_O.Q said:
SpokenTruth said:
Any of you that are wanting to ease restriction so the economy can return are resigning people to death.

If the death rate is 2.5% (we won't truly know until after the pandemic is over) and you know 100 people, you just accepted the death of approx 3 of them. So can you list them out right now which 3 you're ready to sacrifice so the rich can stop losing money?

And if you know 200 people, pick 6. Look at your friends lists. Have 1,000 friends across various social media and forums, pick which 25 have to die.

And by the way....some of you must pick yourself as one of the dead. You're still part of that 2.5%.

It's all for the greater good of the rich, right? Can't have billionaires losing millions right now, can we?

The rich will be fine after this... since they are rich after all. The businesses that are really going to be destroyed by this are those belonging to middle class people... or do you only view the world as business owner = rich, employee = poor?

1). That's why we're pushing for a small business stimulus to keep them afloat.

2). So you have your names picked already?  Can you list them?  I want you type them out.  A form of permanent reminder that you valued a small business over their lives. Go ahead.  And if you really want to go full on out for the economy, write your own name on the list. 

3). What good is reopening an economy is you end up killing off a huge chunk of the people in the process?  Now you killed your economy AND your people.  Good luck getting your economy back but you sure as fuck aren't getting those people back.

4). It's the rich that are raising the "cure shouldn't be worse that the illness" bullshit.  Not your mom and pop shops. They are hunkering down just like the rest of us. It's your wealthy that just lost 30% of the value of their already overinflated stocks that are banging on the 'reopen the economy' drum.  And if a small business is banging that drum too...then they too have just resigned to killing off 2.5% of their employees.  I wonder if they know who they'd let die already.


5). So yes, your small business owners are in for a rough ride....but they'll hopefully live.  And receive federal funding for the business itself to live.  But if we just reopen everything...see Point 2.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
NightlyPoe said:

I know how waves work.  That's why I asked.  If you've already infected 70% of the population in the first wave, how do you multiply that by five?

Look at the Y axis.  That's deaths, not infections.

Very well, I'll restate.  If the first wave has already hit 70% of the population, how does the 2nd wave become 5x more deadly?



SvennoJ said:
NightlyPoe said:

Leaving aside that I don't trust China's numbers, they did reach a point where their hospitals were completely overwhelmed.  After that, the mortality rate skyrockets.

So much about this depends on the stress to the system.  As long as there are enough beds, equipment, and personnel, it's manageable in a "that's life" sort of tragedy.  You reach beyond that point and it quickly becomes a horror show.

It's not just the healthcare system that gets overwhelmed. If 20% or more of the essential workforce gets too sick to work for a couple weeks we likely end up having a lot more problems. I have no idea what the redundancies are to keep the power on.

The higher death rate in Wuhan probably also has to do with early hospital transmission Hospital-associated transmission was suspected as the presumed mechanism of infection for affected health professionals (40 [29%]) and hospitalized patients (17 [12.3%]).

That happened a lot despite quarantine precautions. Italy has the same problem but Singapore and Hong Kong seem to handle it better
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/keeping-the-coronavirus-from-infecting-health-care-workers

Meanwhile in Europe it's a real problem
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/world/europe/coronavirus-europe-covid-19.html

Out of Spain’s 40,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, 5,400 — nearly 14 percent — are medical professionals, the health ministry said on Tuesday. No other country has reported health care staff accounting for a double-digit percentage of total infections.

But the problem is widespread throughout Europe. In Italy, France and Spain, more than 30 health care professionals have died of the coronavirus, and thousands of others have had to self-isolate.

In Brescia province, the center of Italy’s outbreak, 10 to 15 percent of doctors and nurses have been infected and put out of commission, according to a doctor there.

Patients that are already weakened are more at risk in hospitals where covid19 patients are sent to, and healthcare workers are even more at risk chipping away at the ability to cope with the outbreak.

So yep, flatten it as fast as possible. While hospitals fill up, the people that need to run them run out :/

I feel as though that's not disagreeing with me as just stating another way the problem I present can be exasperated.



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NightlyPoe said:
SpokenTruth said:

Look at the Y axis.  That's deaths, not infections.

Very well, I'll restate.  If the first wave has already hit 70% of the population, how does the 2nd wave become 5x more deadly?

That second have had mutated which made it far deadlier.  You get what's known as a cytokine storm.  In summary, your body's own defense mechanisms go into overdrive and kill off healthy cells.  Because of this, the age factor is erased.  ALL ages are impacted because it causes it's own respiratory problems (unlike wave 1 which is most deadly only to people who already have respiratory problems).

We've seen this happen with several coronaviruses before.  Obviously the Spanish Flu of 1918, SARS, MERS and a few others.  And this being a version of SARS means it's highly likely to do the same.

Social distancing and self-isolation can have a huge impact on reducing the possibility of a mutation causing a second wave and/or also limiting the damage overall.

Last edited by SpokenTruth - on 25 March 2020

Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
NightlyPoe said:

Very well, I'll restate.  If the first wave has already hit 70% of the population, how does the 2nd wave become 5x more deadly?

That second have had mutated which made it far deadlier.  You get what's known as a cytokine storm.  In summary, your body's own defense mechanisms go into overdrive and kill off healthy cells.  Because of this, the age factor is erased.  ALL ages are impacted because it causes it's own respiratory problems (unlike wave 1 which is most deadly only to people who already have respiratory problems).

We've seen this happen with several coronaviruses before.  Obviously the Spanish Flu of 1918, SARS, MERS and a few others.  And this being a version of SARS means it's highly likely to do the same.

Social distancing and self-isolation can have a huge impact on reducing the possibility of a mutation causing a second wave and/or also limiting the damage overall.

Let me just stop you there.  If the first wave hits 70% of the population (that's highly unlikely btw), then there just won't be much of a 2nd wave.  It's where I was trying to lead you, but well...  All indications are that the antibodies we generate for this disease will keep us safe for some time as the mutation rate on this virus appears slow.  If it hits that many of us at once, then herd immunity will basically keep a 2nd big outbreak from happening.

Also, for goodness sake guys, please write your posts with the assumption in hand that I already know the basics.



USA will surpass Italy and China “confirmed” cases in about 2 days.

Edit: it seems that it will surpass China tomorrow and maybe Italy.

almost 13.5k new cases confirmed for today 😮

Last edited by kazuyamishima - on 25 March 2020

Hiku said:

There were concerns about a second wave starting in Asia again a couple of days ago. But the other day China had 0 new reported cases in Wuhan, and 1 case in the country overall, iirc.

Either way, that looks much better than it could have been.
I don't expect this to go away at all, ever. Thanks to selfish "brave people" who are not concerned and still keep traveling unnecessarily and going to large gatherings, we'll probably have to live with this virus forever.
But if we can keep it under reasonable control until a vaccine is distributed to the masses, that'll save a lot of lives.

The numbers in Italy however really really scare me...

Speaking of which, here's Italian mayors and governors losing it at people violating covid-19 stay at home orders. VERY satisfying and morbidly funny!

Anyway, the numbers out of this country (the United States) should scare you too, as we just became the world leader in active coronavirus cases today (at least in terms of raw numbers). Another stamp for American exceptionalism. The current epicenter here in the U.S. is New York City, which is expected to run out of available intensive care beds on Friday, as in the day after tomorrow.

My area is now under a stay at home order as well. Not only is that good health policy under these circumstances, it's made my job as a grocery store courtesy clerk a LOT easier by reducing traffic to the store back to normal levels instead of every day being more insane than Thanksgiving Eve for Christ sakes. If things stay this way, who knows, we might even get a chance to catch up in terms of restocking supplies over the next few weeks. HALLELUJAH!! YaY for draconian tyranny!!




NYC is going to be out of ICU sometime this Weekend or early next week.