The point is that we have tested more people.... That is why our data is more accurate.... which is why our data is useful for extrapolation, while Italy's - and Denmarks - isn't.
A 15% mortality rate isn't a worst case scenario. It's just wrong. Any projection - even a worst case scenario projection - has to look at the data. If not you might as well say that the worst case is a 100% mortality rate. Both 15% and 100% are nonsense and equally worthless as worst case secnarios.
If you don't care about the quality of the dataset, you can draw whatever conclusion you want. I could use only the cases that have died and say "oh, in my dataset, everyone with the disease died, so the worst case is a 100% mortality rate". Obviously, that is misleading at best, and malicious at worst. That is what you are doing, though taken to the extreme.
You seem to understand that the Norwegian dataset is of higher quality, so I can't understand why you'd disregard it and use lower quality datasets.
I guess I can understand your point of view.
The truth is probably somewhere it the middle though, norways data could be a outlier too (too many younger/fit people tested)?
Its hard to say.
1,5% of norway is around 80,000+ tested.
in denmark that number is only ~14,000 (im not actually 100% sure)
However 1,5% (of norway) is still a small sample size, depending on how you choose who to test.
Like women are alot less likely to get hospitalised or die from this than men.
Same with younger people, or ones that are in great health.
Smokers, diabetes, blood pressure, circulation, weaken immunesystem,... theres plenty of factors that effect things.
So if you randomly test 80,000 school kids..... your numbers are going to be very differnt than other places in the world.
Also even though we all call it Covid-19, theres many differnt mutations of it.
On island there were over 40 differnt version of it alone.
Maybe the virus in denmark, is more dangerous than the one in norway? all it takes it a mutation from the ones that carried it back and spread it here.
Last edited by JRPGfan - on 25 March 2020
If you want to use big data sets, use China's.
No country has been as strict as them with testing.
They meassure your temperature everytime you exit your apartment buildings, everytime you enter a shop, everytime you return ect.
Ontop of testing for the virus, everytime anyone had symptoms or fever.
This ofc means they "found" alot of sick people really early, and could treat them early.
They have a Mortality rate of over 4% currently.
Necro-bump this 2020: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=229249
Bumb in 2021: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9047071