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Global Hardware 11 January 2020

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Mar1217 said:
Good start indeed. The Switch at this pace could definitely make this year it's peak !

Unless there's something even bigger coming for Switch that we didn't expect.



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I wouldn't be surprised if same time, next year, Switch outsells the 3DS.



Kristof81 said:
I wouldn't be surprised if same time, next year, Switch outsells the 3DS.

Switch needs to sell 25+ million in 2020 to outsell the 3DS. It will take a lot for that to happen. 



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trunkswd said:
Kristof81 said:
I wouldn't be surprised if same time, next year, Switch outsells the 3DS.

Switch needs to sell 25+ million in 2020 to outsell the 3DS. It will take a lot for that to happen. 

I did not want to believe it just a few weeks ago, but once the SSBU impact of 2018 has ended, the 2019/2018 ratio started to increase again, UK is facing a big shortage until end of January...I would have not imagined that possible for a 3 years old console. 25M shipped doesn't sound impossible for me this year.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 16 January 2020

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Amnesia said:
trunkswd said:

Switch needs to sell 25+ million in 2020 to outsell the 3DS. It will take a lot for that to happen. 

I did not want to believe it just a few weeks ago, but once the SSBU impact of 2018 has ended, the 2019/2018 ratio started to increase again, UK is facing a big shortage until end of January...I would have not imagined that possible for a 3 years old console. 25M shipped doesn't sound impossible for me this year.

I am all for the Switch selling 25+ million in 2020. But I am rather skeptical. I see sales being up in the first half of 2020 thanks to the Switch Lite and Animal Crossing. But it is hard to know how well it will sell during the holidays without knowing the games or if there will be a price cut or not. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:
Amnesia said:

I did not want to believe it just a few weeks ago, but once the SSBU impact of 2018 has ended, the 2019/2018 ratio started to increase again, UK is facing a big shortage until end of January...I would have not imagined that possible for a 3 years old console. 25M shipped doesn't sound impossible for me this year.

I am all for the Switch selling 25+ million in 2020. But I am rather skeptical. I see sales being up in the first half of 2020 thanks to the Switch Lite and Animal Crossing. But it is hard to know how well it will sell during the holidays without knowing the games or if there will be a price cut or not. 

We did not have so much visibility as well in January 2019 before the February direct, and then E3 added a massive load to the line up.

EDIT: sorry I have edited my table, I had forgotten the last week, so it is even more visible what I was saying about the ratio increase. And this, with no game at all since the two last Pokemon, there have been nothing for 2 months and sales keep being healthy.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 16 January 2020

Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
Fastest TI MASTER in Europe : rank Master V in 5min10
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

25 million seems too lofty, does Nintendo even have the capability of producing that many? They barely scrapped by at 20 million, stock was extremely low after the holidays.



PortisheadBiscuit said:
25 million seems too lofty, does Nintendo even have the capability of producing that many? They barely scrapped by at 20 million, stock was extremely low after the holidays.

Of course they have the ability to produce 25m if that's what they see Switch selling. It's all about planning ahead.

The scarce Switch stock that became visible in the lead up to Christmas in a few countries was the consequence of a miscalculation on Nintendo's part where they had foreseen the Lite to account for a higher share of sales than it actually accomplished. The Lite was readily available throughout the holidays, so the level of total production was where it needed to be, but unfortunately the production numbers for the individual SKUs were off.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Amnesia said:
trunkswd said:

I am all for the Switch selling 25+ million in 2020. But I am rather skeptical. I see sales being up in the first half of 2020 thanks to the Switch Lite and Animal Crossing. But it is hard to know how well it will sell during the holidays without knowing the games or if there will be a price cut or not. 

We did not have so much visibility as well in January 2019 before the February direct, and then E3 added a massive load to the line up.

EDIT: sorry I have edited my table, I had forgotten the last week, so it is even more visible what I was saying about the ratio increase. And this, with no game at all since the two last Pokemon, there have been nothing for 2 months and sales keep being healthy.

As for Holiday 2020 I don't see a new Pokemon game with the Sword / Shield Expansion Pass. BotW2 or new 3D Mario game seem to be the most likely for the big Holiday 2020 title. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

trunkswd said:
Amnesia said:

We did not have so much visibility as well in January 2019 before the February direct, and then E3 added a massive load to the line up.

EDIT: sorry I have edited my table, I had forgotten the last week, so it is even more visible what I was saying about the ratio increase. And this, with no game at all since the two last Pokemon, there have been nothing for 2 months and sales keep being healthy.

As for Holiday 2020 I don't see a new Pokemon game with the Sword / Shield Expansion Pass. BotW2 or new 3D Mario game seem to be the most likely for the big Holiday 2020 title. 

There is no way to know what specific games are coming out this year until the next Direct from Nintendo.  One thing we can say is that Nintendo will keep putting out first party games at roughly the same rate that they have been.

People keep wondering why the Switch is selling so well and ask how long can it last.  After all Nintendo systems never sell this well right?  Well this is the first time in decades when Nintendo could put all of their first party resources on one system instead of splitting them up between home and handheld systems.  Perhaps it would be more informative to look at the NES?  After all that is the only other time Nintendo could devote all of their resources to one system.  It also just happened to be the most dominant console in gaming history.