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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 11 January 2020

Big lead for the Switch over last year. At this rate, this year will be really huge for the Switch.



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I wouldn't be surprised if same time, next year, Switch outsells the 3DS.



trunkswd said:
Kristof81 said:
I wouldn't be surprised if same time, next year, Switch outsells the 3DS.

Switch needs to sell 25+ million in 2020 to outsell the 3DS. It will take a lot for that to happen. 

I did not want to believe it just a few weeks ago, but once the SSBU impact of 2018 has ended, the 2019/2018 ratio started to increase again, UK is facing a big shortage until end of January...I would have not imagined that possible for a 3 years old console. 25M shipped doesn't sound impossible for me this year.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 16 January 2020

trunkswd said:
Amnesia said:

I did not want to believe it just a few weeks ago, but once the SSBU impact of 2018 has ended, the 2019/2018 ratio started to increase again, UK is facing a big shortage until end of January...I would have not imagined that possible for a 3 years old console. 25M shipped doesn't sound impossible for me this year.

I am all for the Switch selling 25+ million in 2020. But I am rather skeptical. I see sales being up in the first half of 2020 thanks to the Switch Lite and Animal Crossing. But it is hard to know how well it will sell during the holidays without knowing the games or if there will be a price cut or not. 

We did not have so much visibility as well in January 2019 before the February direct, and then E3 added a massive load to the line up.

EDIT: sorry I have edited my table, I had forgotten the last week, so it is even more visible what I was saying about the ratio increase. And this, with no game at all since the two last Pokemon, there have been nothing for 2 months and sales keep being healthy.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 16 January 2020

25 million seems too lofty, does Nintendo even have the capability of producing that many? They barely scrapped by at 20 million, stock was extremely low after the holidays.



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trunkswd said:
Amnesia said:

We did not have so much visibility as well in January 2019 before the February direct, and then E3 added a massive load to the line up.

EDIT: sorry I have edited my table, I had forgotten the last week, so it is even more visible what I was saying about the ratio increase. And this, with no game at all since the two last Pokemon, there have been nothing for 2 months and sales keep being healthy.

As for Holiday 2020 I don't see a new Pokemon game with the Sword / Shield Expansion Pass. BotW2 or new 3D Mario game seem to be the most likely for the big Holiday 2020 title. 

There is no way to know what specific games are coming out this year until the next Direct from Nintendo.  One thing we can say is that Nintendo will keep putting out first party games at roughly the same rate that they have been.

People keep wondering why the Switch is selling so well and ask how long can it last.  After all Nintendo systems never sell this well right?  Well this is the first time in decades when Nintendo could put all of their first party resources on one system instead of splitting them up between home and handheld systems.  Perhaps it would be more informative to look at the NES?  After all that is the only other time Nintendo could devote all of their resources to one system.  It also just happened to be the most dominant console in gaming history.



Ka-pi96 said:
So... if removing the Vita from the front page is something only ioi can do, does that mean adding PS5/Xbox something to the front page when they release will be a problem too?

Why doesn't ioi just sell it to the guys actually doing the work or give full access?



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

25 million for Switch in one year seems a bit far-fetched to me.

I'm gonna go with 20-21 million, though at this point it's hard to say. Animal Crossing will get them off to strong start, but whether they can maintain that momentum remains to be seen.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
trunkswd said:

As for Holiday 2020 I don't see a new Pokemon game with the Sword / Shield Expansion Pass. BotW2 or new 3D Mario game seem to be the most likely for the big Holiday 2020 title. 

There is no way to know what specific games are coming out this year until the next Direct from Nintendo.  One thing we can say is that Nintendo will keep putting out first party games at roughly the same rate that they have been.

People keep wondering why the Switch is selling so well and ask how long can it last.  After all Nintendo systems never sell this well right?  Well this is the first time in decades when Nintendo could put all of their first party resources on one system instead of splitting them up between home and handheld systems.  Perhaps it would be more informative to look at the NES?  After all that is the only other time Nintendo could devote all of their resources to one system.  It also just happened to be the most dominant console in gaming history*.

*outside of Europe and Brazil, where Nintendo struggled. Hard!



Bofferbrauer2 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

There is no way to know what specific games are coming out this year until the next Direct from Nintendo.  One thing we can say is that Nintendo will keep putting out first party games at roughly the same rate that they have been.

People keep wondering why the Switch is selling so well and ask how long can it last.  After all Nintendo systems never sell this well right?  Well this is the first time in decades when Nintendo could put all of their first party resources on one system instead of splitting them up between home and handheld systems.  Perhaps it would be more informative to look at the NES?  After all that is the only other time Nintendo could devote all of their resources to one system.  It also just happened to be the most dominant console in gaming history*.

*outside of Europe and Brazil, where Nintendo struggled. Hard!

I suppose my statement only really applies to Japan and the US which were easily the two biggest markets at the time.  The NES was extremely dominant in the two main markets, especially the US.

Japan: 
NES 19.35m  (85%)
Sega 3.52m (15%)

US:
NES 33.29m (92%)
SMS 2m (6%)
Atari 7800 1m (3%)