Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 7 4.09%
 
First half of 2023 4 2.34%
 
Second half of 2023 16 9.36%
 
First half of 2024 8 4.68%
 
Second half of 2024 14 8.19%
 
First half of 2025 6 3.51%
 
Second half of 2025 4 2.34%
 
Later than above 1 0.58%
 
Never 111 64.91%
 
Total:171

When Switch pro pro pro pro comes out



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nier1993 said:

Ps4 was 199$ for like 2 days during the holidays before being sold out. Switch is 199$ since September.

When the hybrid switch gets to $199, it will have a much larger impact than the lite had I believe



I’m not good with predictions, so it is easier to just say never



Nu-13 said:
Leynos said:
If you consider Switch to be a console then it will end up as the 3rd best selling console ever. Behind PS4 and PS2.
If you consider it a handheld first and accept the 118 million Game Boy sales as a whole then again Switch will likely be the 3rd best selling ever. Behind DS and Game Boy.

What is PS4 at 106 million? I think Switch's max potential is 103 million.

Do you mind sharing how much you think the switch will sell each year from now?

FY2020 (current one) : 21,13

FY2021 : 20,3

FY2022 : 15,5

FY2023 : 9,8

It is my pessimistic scenario where the "Switch Pro" only adds superficial feature without increasing significantly the power of the console to receive more 3rd party support.



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LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Considering how early Nintendo tends to abandon their consoles it probably won't ever happen.
The average lifespan of a Nintendo console is 5-6 years. For Playstation consoles the lifespan is 6-7 years.



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Nu-13 said:
Hiku said:

It took Switch about 3 years to reach half of PS4's numbers.
If PS4 stops selling today, and Switch keeps selling at the same pace for another 3 years, it'd reach PS4.

But PS4 won't stop selling yet, and Switch's next 3 years are less likely to be as good as its first 3.

I'm not sure if Switch will even get that high. But if it does, then I'd say first half of 2024.

You are correct that the next 3 years aren't likely to be as good as 2017 + 2018 + 2019. It's far more likely that they will be even better.

I can see next year, but not the 6th year.

Last edited by Hiku - on 11 January 2020

I think Switch will scrape to 100m and the peter out, PS4 will end at 125m or so



Amnesia said:
Nu-13 said:

Do you mind sharing how much you think the switch will sell each year from now?

FY2020 (current one) : 21,13

FY2021 : 20,3

FY2022 : 15,5

FY2023 : 9,8

It is my pessimistic scenario where the "Switch Pro" only adds superficial feature without increasing significantly the power of the console to receive more 3rd party support.

A hardware revision doesn't change third party support.



2nd half of 2022 at most. PS4 will be done at 120m at most




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It's going to be hard, but I'm not going to doubt it.

It will depend on how long Nintendo will support it.